Welcome back to Raptors Stock Talk, where we look at the Toronto Raptors through a stock market lens. Each week, we identify the players, lineups and trends whose value is rising, falling or staying put.
A BUY means something has caught our attention for the right reasons. Whether it’s a player taking a significant step forward, a lineup finding its identity or a trend that could have a major impact on the team’s success, we’re investing in what we’re seeing. A SELL means confidence is starting to fade, and the warning signs are becoming harder to ignore. A HOLD means we’re not ready to make a definitive call just yet. There’s something worth monitoring, but we need a little more evidence before making a move.
With another week of Raptors basketball in the books, there is plenty to discuss. Here’s what I’m buying, selling and holding this week.
BUY: Scottie Barnes’ All-NBA campaign
It’s remarkable how quickly things can change. Barnes was held scoreless against the Minnesota Timberwolves, going 0-for-12 from the field in what was just the fifth scoreless performance of his career. It was an ugly night, and there’s no getting around that. However, as frustrating as that loss was, there’s a part of me that is almost glad it happened. Why? Because sometimes players need a wake up call and Barnes has been on an absolute tear ever since.
Outside of that Minnesota performance, Barnes has scored at least 23 points in every outing. More importantly, he’s looked increasingly comfortable taking over games offensively, and opposing defences haven’t had many answers.
The first opportunity to see that response came against the Orlando Magic. Barnes looked like a completely different player, attacking the basket relentlessly, finishing through contact and pulling up with confidence. He wasn’t waiting for the game to come to him. He was going out and making things happen. When the Magic tried to defend him one-on-one, he used his strength to get to the basket. When help arrived, he found the open teammate.
Barnes finished that game with 28 points, six rebounds, four assists, three steals and two blocks, putting together the kind of complete performance that reminds you just how valuable he can be on both ends of the floor.
The most encouraging part was that this wasn’t a one-night thing. Toronto faced Orlando again in its first NBA Cup game, giving Barnes another opportunity to build on his performance. This time, he took things to another level. Barnes erupted for a career-high 41 points.
He initially reached 36 points after knocking down two 3-pointers in quick succession, setting a new personal best before continuing to pile on the points. It wasn’t simply a case of getting hot from the perimeter, either. Barnes was finding ways to score from all over the floor, putting pressure on Orlando in the half court and showing how difficult he can be to contain when he’s playing with this level of confidence.
Of course, someone could look at those two performances and argue that Barnes simply has the Magic’s number. That’s a fair question, considering both games came against the same opponent. However, his performance against the Los Angeles Lakers should put that argument to rest.
Barnes continued his impressive stretch against Los Angeles, coming within one point of another 30-point outing. In 36 minutes against the Lakers, Barnes recorded 29 points, six rebounds, five assists and two steals. That’s three consecutive performances in which he’s looked like the most dangerous offensive option on the floor for Toronto.
That’s where the All-NBA conversation starts to become interesting. Barnes is showing he can influence games in just about every area. He’s scoring, creating for others, defending, generating turnovers and taking responsibility when the Raptors need someone to step up. The All-NBA conversation is still a long way from being settled, but Barnes is giving himself a legitimate case. When Kawhi Leonard returns, it’s reasonable to expect Barnes’ efficiency to improve. If he can maintain this level of production while continuing to anchor Toronto defensively, it will become increasingly difficult to leave his name out of the discussion.
SELL: Jakob Poeltl’s role in Toronto’s plans
I can no longer defend Jakob Poeltl. At some point, the excuses have to run out, and we’re getting dangerously close to that point with Toronto’s starting centre.
Through his first five appearances this season, Poeltl has offered very little reason for optimism. In fact, he’s been nearly unplayable at times, and his latest injury absence only adds another layer of uncertainty to an already frustrating situation.
To be fair, there has been one game in which Poeltl looked like the player Toronto needs him to be. Against Orlando on NBA Cup night, he recorded his first double-double of the season, finishing with 12 points and 11 rebounds in 23 minutes.
That was easily his most encouraging performance of the year. He was more involved offensively, competed on the glass and gave Toronto a much-needed presence around the basket. Unfortunately, even that performance came with a familiar problem: foul trouble. Poeltl picked up five personal fouls, limiting how much longer he could have stayed on the floor. He isn’t as mobile as he once was, and he’s increasingly finding himself in poor positioning defensively, leading to fouls. Because he can’t win physicality battles for rebounds, he’s often having to do the work up high, leading to fouls while fighting for boards, too.
And even considering that one Magic game, the problem is that one decent outing doesn’t erase everything that came before it. Through his first four games, Poeltl had accumulated 15 personal fouls while scoring just 11 points. He played only 10 minutes in Toronto’s 129-99 win over Orlando on October 28, offering almost nothing before finding himself back on the bench.
In that stretch of the season Poeltl has been averaging 2.8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game, numbers that fall well below even last season’s disappointing production. And last season, he was already dealing with a back issue that affected his performance and availability.
The bigger concern is that there doesn’t seem to be one area of his game outside of screen-setting (although he’s committed some fouls there, too) where Toronto can consistently rely on him right now. Defensively, he hasn’t provided the interior presence the Raptors need. His rebounding has been inconsistent, and offensively, his contributions have been limited outside of setting screens. Basically, Toronto is paying the guy to be a glorified screen setter.Â
His contract makes the situation even more complicated. Moving on from Poeltl would be easier said than done, particularly when the Raptors don’t have an abundance of reliable options at centre. Toronto can’t simply push him out of the rotation without having a clear replacement ready to take on those minutes. However, that doesn’t mean the current situation can continue indefinitely.
HOLD: Raptors defence
Last week, we were buying the Raptors’ defence. After watching Toronto surrender 131 points to the Los Angeles Lakers and struggle to keep opponents off the scoreboard over its last two games, it’s fair to wonder whether that stock is starting to cool off.
I’m not ready to sell just yet. There is no denying that giving up 131 points is a problem. Toronto needs to be better defensively, particularly when it comes to limiting easy baskets and preventing opponents from getting comfortable offensively. But before writing off what looked like a promising defensive group during the opening week, it’s worth taking a closer look at the competition and what the Raptors were still able to accomplish.
First, there’s the obvious challenge of facing Luka Doncic. The Lakers superstar has looked like a man on a mission to start the season and is already making a strong case to be part of the early MVP conversation. Against Toronto, he put together a monster performance, scoring 45 points on 12-for-23 shooting, including an incredible 8-for-12 from beyond the arc. He also went a perfect 13-for-13 from the free-throw line and grabbed a game-high 15 rebounds.
That’s a difficult assignment for any defence. Doncic has been putting up video-game numbers to open the season, averaging 37.7 points, 8.2 rebounds and 7.3 assists while shooting 43.2 percent from three-point range. Those numbers tell you just how dangerous he has been.
The second thing worth looking at is what Toronto managed to do despite the final score. The Raptors forced 22 turnovers against Los Angeles. That’s a significant number.
Toronto’s active hands and defensive pressure were still causing problems. The Raptors were getting into passing lanes, disrupting possessions and creating opportunities to turn defence into offence. The issue was what happened next. Forcing turnovers is only half the job. You have to make the opposition pay for them.
Toronto struggled to capitalize on those extra possessions, missing opportunities to turn defensive stops into easy points on the other end. When a team creates that many turnovers but can’t consistently convert them into transition opportunities, it’s leaving points on the table.
That’s something the Raptors need to clean up. Their defensive pressure should be a major advantage, especially with the number of players on this roster who thrive on disrupting opponents, getting their hands on loose balls and creating chaos. This is exactly why I’m not ready to abandon this defensive group after two difficult games.
Still, that doesn’t mean the Raptors should just get a free pass for allowing 131 points. They need to be more disciplined, do a better job limiting high-quality looks and find a way to turn their defensive activity into points at the other end. The personnel and the early-season evidence suggest this group is capable of much better.
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