We have to talk about the offensive side of the ball.
Even though the NBA is constantly changing, scoring the basketball remains extremely important. Shocking, I know. When the Raptors turned the corner over a decade ago with DeMar DeRozan & Kyle Lowry they entered a 5 year window where they were basically a top 5 offense for the whole duration. Their regular season ORTG stayed the same (113.5) from DeRozan’s last year to Kawhi Leonard’s first. Obviously the team improved as a whole and eventually ended up lifting the Larry O’Brien Trophy by seasons end.
Not only did the Raptors trade DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and draft capital to get Leonard, but they also traded more of their young depth to build the team further around him on the run up to the chip. It was all worth it, of course. However, when Leonard absconded to Los Angeles, he left behind a Raptors team that would snap off a 53-19 record — .736 winning percentage, better than his year as a Raptor — in a COVID shortened season. It was an extremely fun team that had young players, ready after years of development, to step into the main roles on the team. Despite their overt success, major holes started to show up on the offensive end of the floor. They fell into the bottom half of league offense for the next 6 years, more or less. The fact that Leonard left without the Raptors getting anything back, well, in the next few years the Raptors really started to feel what their pursuit of a championship cost.
The cost? Star level scoring, box score production, depth, and draft capital.
The result? A huge deficit in pull up talent and prospects with offensive upside.
In an attempt to ameliorate some of their offensive weaknesses, the Raptors took a shot on Brandon Ingram, who helped for one season, and was recently traded for Leonard. All these years later the Raptors only Finals MVP ever returns, and with him, brings the Raptors their first chance at a top-10 offense since the year he left.
I’ll give you the very short pitch on what Leonard brings first, by stating a plain truth. Every shot has a chance to go in. Turnovers don’t. So, stars who take and make valuable shots while limiting turnovers? They almost universally help offenses. If you could design a player who forces turnovers on one end, and doesn’t turn it over on the other? You’d be looking at a guy like Ben Wallace, historic defender. Now, if you wanted that guy to also be one of the league’s best scorers? You’d be looking at Leonard. As pointed out by Joe Wolfond, the two players in NBA history with more steals than turnovers? Wallace & Leonard.
To the point of Leonard’s near league best scoring prowess? He just put up a 28ppg season with a TS% that was 5 percentage points above league average. This puts him well above the level of scoring we saw from Ingram, it even puts him well out of the likes of a Devin Booker. Leonard’s contemporaries last year were the MVP candidates. That’s the level of scorer the Raptors just brought in. Is his scoring selfish? At the expense of what the offense wants to do as a whole? Not even close. Over the past 7 years, Leonard has averaged above the 95th-percentile in how he positively affects his teams ability to score when he steps on the court.
As far is it pertains to the Raptors, Leonard is joining what I considered to be the NBA’s worst pull up shooting team. By his lonesome, he nearly equaled the Raptors pull up 3’s made per game (1.4 vs 1.5) and did it while shooting nearly 10% better. That alone, is transcendent for this Raptors team.
In terms of whose usage Leonard is replacing, Ingram’s, the numbers lean heavily towards the newcomer.
Leonard has the tight handle, physicality, and shot making to succeed in virtually every play type. He runs an elite pick n’ roll. He controls pace and moves the chains through isolation. Bruises and bashes guards in the post. Comfortably cans triples off of screens. He also has the willingness to run in transition and utilize his elite 3-point shooting to space the floor for others, or to use his size and finishing ability to punch at the rim.
The Raptors are coming off a season where they were elite at getting into transition, and mid at converting. Not only is Leonard a great player when it comest to jumpstarting transition, but he has been juicing the Clippers’ transition offense to the gills. Leonard’s presence should be transformative for all the reasons listed, but also because he’s a historically great rebounding wing who could allow his co-star Scottie Barnes to spend less time cleaning the glass, and more time running at the rim in the open floor.
In terms of improving the Raptors driving game, I don’t think Leonard is quite the cure-all that he is with the pull up stuff. The Raptors were bottom 5 in drive points per game and passed out of drives too often. Not enough threatening, downhill prowess. Leonard drove the ball less than not only Ingram did last year, but Quickley as well. The Raptors will still need a lot of drive volume from Barnes & RJ Barrett, and especially their playmaking out of drives – where Leonard doesn’t provide a ton of pop.
The benefit with Leonard’s driving game is that even though he was outside the top 50 in drives per game, he was still in the top 20 in drive points per game. As ever, Leonard does more with less. He is hyper efficient and no frills. This is not only expressed through his driving game, but his game in general. Leonard was 6th in the NBA in points per game, and he isn’t within 10 touches per game of anyone above him. In fact for most of the guys, they’re touching the ball between 20 and 30 more times than him a game. The closest player in the NBA to Leonard in touches per game? Josh Hart. Leonard doesn’t waste time or movement. When he gets the ball, it’s go time.
You always need health, and there’s a lot to like with how Leonard fits elsewhere. But, just zooming in on the glamorous side of the floor, Leonard is returning to right his wrongs. His exit set the stage for the collapse of the Raptors offense, and his return should bring it’s revival.
Have a blessed day.
