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Mid-Series Mailbag: Where the Norm, guarding LeBron, and more

Searching for answers stuck 0-2.

The Toronto Raptors have lost the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals by a combined 50 points. That is…not great. It’s fine, in the grand scheme of things, and it doesn’t change the fact that it’s been an awesome season in which the organization took a big step forward, but it’s certainly a disappointing way to go out, if things continue this way.

It’s not the time for eulogizing or reflecting on the year or looking too far ahead just yet, though. At least not for me. And so we’re left to still look ahead to Games 3 and 4 (and maybe 5!) and try to find answers. What follows is my best attempt to answer some of the more common or pressing questions from readers.

I wish I had an answer for this. It’s a bad time for Kyle Lowry to turn in two of his worst performances of the postseason, and of the season as a whole. And these games haven’t been like the Indiana and Miami series, either, where Lowry’s shooting poorly but still playing well. He’s been pretty awful, defending poorly and taking strange gambles and failing to get others as involved as he normally does when he can’t score.

Part of that is what the Cavaliers are doing, but it’s not as if they’re throwing elite defenders and a complex scheme at him. Yes, the Cavs are hedging hard on pick-and-rolls, throwing Kevin Love (who has defended quite well) and Tristan Thompson at him and daring him to use Bismack Biyombo (or Patrick Patterson, and in Game 2, Cleveland sent a ton of help Patterson’s way to dare him to make the next play), but Lowry’s seen that plenty all year. He’s struggling to make the necessary passes out of traps, he’s not getting good angles on bigs to drive past them, and when he uses the bit of space he does have to pull up, his jumper’s MIA again.

Defensively, Irving is a near impossible matchup thanks to his quickness, handle, and jumper, and the Raptors’ limiting help puts far more pressure on the point of attack. Lowry hasn’t looked at all game beyond trying to draw the occasional charge or ball-hawk for a steal. His defense on Irving has been bad, period.

I don’t know what the answer is. The Cavs aren’t doing anything that the Lowry from Game 7 against Miami wouldn’t be solving, but that guy’s not there right now. He’s almost surely exhausted from the deepest run of his career, playing 40 minutes a night with little rest, and it’s possible his elbow is still bothering him. Whatever the case, it’s clearly getting to Lowry, who looked dejected in Game 2 and left the bench in the second quarter to “decompress,” an understandable desire but kind of a bad look in real-time.

Don’t write KLOE off, though. Those who haven’t watched him intently for four years have tried to do so in each of the last two series, and he bounced back. Fans have no choice but to keep the faith and hope he returns to form, because the Raptors don’t stand a chance if he doesn’t.

Here’s a fun stat: LeBron James is 0-of-5 outside the paint in this series. That’s striking both because he’s dominated without having to take shots outside of the paint, and because he continues to look ineffective as a shooter (a concern for the final, but not for this series).

So, why aren’t the Raptors just backing off of him and daring him to let fly? There are two reasons I can think of. The first is that they don’t think James will take those shots, instead using the space to build up a head of steam at a defender and force a help collapse, because it’s going to be really tough for anyone to stop James on the move. The second is that they’re worried about giving him the middle on post-ups, so they’re top-guarding him and begging him to go baseline, where he’ll face tough passes. (Look at DeMarre Carroll’s footwork against James in Game 1 against Game 2 – he was angling James off the top to such an extreme degree that James had a clear baseline path, where ostensibly help would have come. It was a big change from how he guarded him in Game 1, when he played him straight and perhaps expected help in the middle.)

The issue with James is that there aren’t good solutions. Give him the baseline and he’ll pass through the help defender. Give him the middle, and he’ll score. Body him up, he’ll force his way through. Give him space, he’ll build up steam. The Raptors have at times coaxed him into tough shots or contested attempts at the rim (James Johnson has been decent, Patrick Patterson at least tried, Carroll was a little better in Game 2, which doesn’t say a ton). He’s just impossible.

I definitely think the Raptors could stand to drop back on more screens involving James as the screener or ball-handler, hoping he opts to pop or pull up, but the evidence so far suggests he’ll just look to do something else, instead. The one thing I might try, and I wrote this before Game 2, too: Try Bismack Biyombo on James when the Cavs go small. Biyombo’s not going to be able to lock him down, either, but he’s probably the one Raptor that James can’t post up, and it keeps Biyombo involved around the ball instead of having him chase Kevin Love or Channing Frye. Biyombo can chase those guys effectively, but it’s a poor use of his skills, taking him away from the rim and the paint, which is exactly what Cleveland wants. I’d be using him on James or having him play help safety on an Iman Shumpert type in the weak corner (a matchup zone, basically) to offer some semblance of rim protection.

Really, though, it’s James.

They’re really good. They’re rolling nine deep right now, and they’ve found something with the James-and-reserves unit. Their bench players offer a nice mix of offense, defense, shooting, and secondary ball-handling, and no matter the group, James has a ton of shooters around him. They’re really well built for the 2016 version of James.

I’m in a weird place with the Cavs. I picked them to win the title before the season, and I’m higher on them now (shoutout to Channing Frye) than I was at the start of the season, but I still think I’d pick either West team against them, narrowly. That’s not a dislike of Cleveland – they’ve been awesome – but I think I need to see them defend a quality offense playing well before I buy all the way in. They can score with the Warriors or Thunder, for sure, I’m just a little…skeptical isn’t the word, but curious about how they defend against an elite team. It’s going to be a hell of a finals, in any case.

I wouldn’t want to fight any version of any sized Biyombo, but I’ll say a duck-sized Biyombo. He’d probably still be much, much stronger than me, but at least there are strategies when you have a huge size advantage. I could maneuver against a Biyombo-sized duck, but I’m not sure how I get inside to do damage without getting bitten to death.

Yes. This is something I suggested could happen when setting up the series, and now it’s something I think should happen. With Lowry and Cory Joseph both struggling on Irving at the defensive end, it’s worth trying a long, quick, high-energy defender on him to sew what happens. The benefit of Powell is his ability to guard different player types, and Irving’s a massive challenge that Powell may be up for. Maybe he’s not, but it’s worth a shot, I think.

You can only get away with it against certain Cleveland lineups, mind you. For one, you can’t go dual-PGs and play Powell when the Cavs are big, because it puts Powell on James or a guard on a Cleveland big. But you can get away with it when Cleveland uses Irving and Matthew Dellavedova together, particularly when J.R. Smith or Iman Shumpert are at the three (or when Irving plays with both of those guys). When James shifts to the four, the size disadvantage of playing Powell with one or two guards is mitigated, and you can slide a guard on to Smith or Shumpert and let Powell try to get into Irving and try to frustrate him, or at least make life tough.

I’d be surprised if Powell doesn’t see some rotation time in Game 3, even if it’s just a few minutes when James and/or Lowry sit.

Look, we’ve already gotten more out of Ross than anyone expected in the playoffs. He was bad against Indiana, but he turned in four or five decent-to-good games against Miami, and he was Toronto’s only effective offensive weapon on Thursday. Ross comes with all of the normal Ross issues – shot selection, hilarious backcourt turnovers, lapses on defense (and watching James’ eyes light up when Ross picks him up in transition is hilarious), but when nobody is scoring, Ross’ shooting can be huge. It’s at least something Cleveland has to worry about.

I wouldn’t say I’m encouraged by Ross’ postseason so far. I’m not discouraged, though. He’s Ross, which is a good thing and a bad thing and a fun thing and a frustrating thing

It would make a difference, for sure. As bad as Toronto’s been, their offense has also been bad, and Valanciunas would be a huge help in that regard. The Cavs are loading up off of Biyombo to stop the ball-handler, and Valanciunas makes that a much tougher proposition. He’s not perfect, but he stresses a defense far more, and he could score on the block against any Cleveland bigs. At the very least, he would make Ty Lue’s decisions a little tougher, both schematically on defense and with his frontcourt rotation. The Raptors would have to tweak their own approach, too – there’s already a lack of rim protection, and Valanciunas isn’t adept chasing Love/Frye types around the perimeter – but I’m confident it would be a net positive overall.

It would not, however, have been worth 31 or 19 points.

In literal terms, no. In pragmatic terms, yes. I picked the Cavs in 5, assuming the Raptors would take one at home, and put up a decent fight in some losses. They’ve played worse than I expected. I still think they might steal one at home, but that’s all they’ll get. And that’s cool. Let’s enjoy the last couple of games.

Have a great long weekend, everyone.