Be sure to check out the previous piece on Gradey Dick and Jordan Hawkins here.
I would expect both Brice Sensabaugh and Dariq Whitehead to be realistically available at the 13th pick on draft night. Both provide tantalizing upside as offensive options, but each prospect has some flaws which have held their draft stock outside of top-10 territory.
Brice Sensabaugh’s elite scoring feel from all three levels has rocketed his initial stock; from a projected multi-year college player who might go in the first round in a couple years – into a one-and-done who is being discussed as a real lottery prospect.
Dariq Whitehead’s stock suffered the opposite fate. Even though he was regarded as a potential top 5 pick at the start of the year due to his shooting, defence, and athleticism, a combination of injuries and underwhelming play at Duke have sent him barreling into the uncertain purgatory that is the mid-first round.
I wouldn’t be upset at selecting either player at 13th overall, however, and I’ll explain why.
Brice Sensabaugh – G/F, Ohio State
Offence
One of the best scorers in the draft, period. Efficient, good touch from everywhere, quality shot form, good handle, physically strong, and even has a post-game. Brice checks a lot of boxes, and he makes it look easy. There isn’t a lot that he can’t do as a scorer.
I wanna highlight his points per game and minutes per game in particular. A lot of high end prospects who scored at a similar clip to Sensabaugh also played over 30 minutes per game. Brice did all that in just under 25 minutes per game. An absolute efficiency machine.
Sensabaugh was tied for highest Offensive Box Plus/Minus in college basketball (7.8) with projected top-3 pick Brandon Miller. Here’s a list of some other freshmen who eclipsed the 7 OBPM benchmark:
Zion Williamson
Michael Beasley
Kevin Love
Trae Young
Anthony Davis
Marvin Bagley
Jamal Murray
D’Angelo Russell
Deandre Ayton
Cody Zeller
Lauri Markkanen
Markelle Fultz
James Harden
Evan Mobley
You get the picture. It’s not bad company to be in.
Stupidly efficient on catch and shoot attempts (46%), Sensabaugh is a safe bet to project as a high end complimentary player at the minimum. He’s not exclusively an on-ball player, and moves extremely well off the ball to get to open spots. His shot is so smooth, and his high release resulted in many defenders looking foolish as Brice’s shot soared over their heads into the basket.
49.4% from mid-range, Sensabaugh isn’t your typical “only shoot threes or score at the rim” wing that’s usually available at this point in the draft. He has an outstanding in-between game, with fantastic deceleration ability and great touch.
Body control is another strength, both at squaring up to the basket mid-jumper and finishing at the rim.
He uses his strong frame to drive to the rim, and was pretty good at finishing with either hand and drawing fouls. Also uses his strength in the post.
I’m impressed with his ballhandling ability as well, with a wide array of creative dribble moves and an effective crossover.
Tell me if this turnaround jumper reminds you of anyone?
I’m just saying. That number 10 on the red jersey looks familiar. One of Brice’s most consistent shots, it feels like he’s practically mastered it already as a college player.
He lives for the moment. Sensabaugh took a big chunk of Ohio State’s clutch shots last season, and made a lot of them. He never appears to get shaken by a defender in his face.
Defence
Oof.
I mean, if Brice was anywhere close to average on the defensive end, we wouldn’t be sitting here talking about him today since he would be in serious top-5 discussions. He’s strong, but he doesn’t use his craftiness as well on the defensive end. Ideally you pair him up against the slowest player on the other team and hope he can just out-muscle them. He has good physical tools with his frame and plus-wingspan. Ideally he can be coached to at least be average on the defensive end. Hard to say, though. Being statistically one of the worst defenders in the draft is never a good thing.
Best part about his defensive game is his strength and ability to match up with bigger forwards on the interior.
Areas of Improvement
Defence is the big one. His scoring is so good, but is it enough to keep him on the floor when he struggles at guarding most players? He was responsible for a lot of defensive miscommunications at Ohio State.
Bless the knees. Brice has a history of knee injuries, and sometimes he’ll shift his weight opposite to that of his knees during his sudden changes in direction while handling the ball, which makes me cringe every time I see it. Being built like a linebacker won’t help this issue. Brice is one of the few prospects who I think could stand to lose a few pounds if he wants to extend his career.
I think Brice can make smart passes. He only averaged about 1 assist per game at Ohio State, though those averages went up as the season went on and he had one game where he recorded 7 dimes. He reads defences very well, and that should translate into positive playmaking development. That said, he still pulled a negative ast/to at Ohio State and tended to create for himself more than anything.
Fit on the Raptors
I seriously think Sensabaugh could be a real offensive option for Toronto. With his repertoire of scoring moves at any level on the floor, he could provide a much needed injection into the team’s offence. He would provide much needed spacing for Scottie Barnes, and teams would be forced to
Long term, you’re looking at a serious potential number 1 guy in a half court offence.
Defensively is where the fit is going to be concerning. I don’t believe Brice is going to play himself off the floor on defence, especially on a team like Toronto where they have a surplus of quality defenders to try and hide him, but there are still going to be moments of head-shaking and potentially Brice-benching. I just think that Toronto’s had their share of defensive prospects with questionable offensive upside, maybe they should take a look in the other direction to shake things up.
Playing in a ball-movement heavy offence should benefit him, which is why I would rather see him develop under Darko than Nurse. If Nurse were still the coach and running an ISO-centric style of offence centered on Siakam and VanVleet, Brice would likely take longer to develop that ‘share the rock’ part of his game.
Brendan’s Assessment
Brice Sensabaugh is 13th overall on my big board. As far as offensive players go in this draft, Brice is one of the best. The defence is concerning, and I think it’ll drop him down a few teams’ boards. That said, putting him on a roster with a lot of other good defensive players should help to mitigate his weaknesses, and if he goes to a team with a strong defensive identity, there’s optimism that he can maybe get close to passable on that end of the floor due to his strong work ethic. If he doesn’t, then you still have a player who can get you efficient points, and that’s valuable on any team in the league.
Sit and watch the film of Sensabaugh that I’ve put in this article, then when you’re done, go watch some more of his shotmaking on Youtube. Every time I watch him, I can’t stop thinking about how smooth his game is.
Dariq Whitehead – G/F, Duke
Offence
Struggling to start the season, Whitehead bounced back somewhat well, specifically from beyond the arc where he shot an impressive 43%. This was on lower attempts, but still pretty good for only 20 minutes per night.
In his second half of the season, he maintained his season average in attempts at just over 3 per game, but raised his percentage from deep up to 51%(!!!). His FG% also rose to 47% in this timeframe. The improvement is what’s encouraging to me, and why I can’t take that 42% from the field at face value.
Dariq was 44% off the catch at Duke on just under 80 attempts. Really fast at rising up into his shot.
Athletically, his Duke film isn’t eye-popping. But he showcased some bursts of high-tier athleticism in high school which leaves me optimistic that he’ll round back into form assuming he stays healthy.
Another “back in high school” note, but he really was more of a primary scorer before his injury. His efficiency from the mid-range and on pull-up jumpers at Duke show that Dariq still has very real upside as a self-creator. Looked very confident in the few isolation possessions he had.
Kind of a funky form, but the release is high and the mechanics are smooth.
Looked comfortable with the rare dribble move and step-back. I’m buying stock in his long term on-ball ability.
Defence
Here’s where Dariq separates himself from Sensabaugh. 6’7 in shoes with a 6’10 wingspan, Whitehead’s got the physical tools to succeed on the opposite end of the floor as well, and his defence was somewhat of a saving grace in a comparatively underwhelming offensive showing last season at Duke.
Very impressive defending his man on the ball and in 1-on-1 situations. His size makes him a nuisance, and he has the grit and intelligence to be a game changer defensively. If he loses his man, his quick footwork and long arms allow for a pretty effective recovery.
Strong lateral quickness, good feet movement, can stay in front of his man on the perimeter. His strength allows him to take some hard bumps if driven inside – without giving up any angles.
Areas of Improvement
A foot injury is what sidelined him at the start of the college season, and he underwent another surgery to repair the same foot just recently, though he should be back for the start of the NBA season. His athleticism and burst was hindered as a result of this, be interesting to see if it can get back to what it was when Dariq was in high school.
While he’s flashed upside at off-the-dribble shotmaking, Dariq is still a developing ballhandler. His role was pretty exclusively off-ball, but that was partially by design so Duke didn’t wear him out coming off an injury. He’s had encouraging flashes at handling the ball, and was regarded as one of the best scoring prospects in the class coming out of high school. I think this part of his game will come sooner than many expect if he’s given some freedom at the next level.
Hardly ever got to the line at Duke.
Negative Ast/TO ratio, but showcased split-second decision making skills when he had the ball in his hands. Needs some refining but not a lost cause when it comes to moving the ball.
Fit on the Raptors
Fantastic! As a versatile defensive wing, Coach Darko could likely live with slotting Whitehead anywhere from the 2 to the 4 in any lineup. His spacing would make it so that OG Anunoby and Gary Trent are no longer the only regularly played shooting wings on the team.
Likely to come off the bench initially, we would probably see Dariq get some on-ball reps to give the Raptors’ bench an option so that the starters don’t have to play 40 minutes per game anymore. Such usage off the bench would also help along his development as a handler and grow his confidence so he could slot into the starting lineup in the near future.
Brendan’s Assessment
Dariq Whitehead is 12th overall on my big board. I really think he’s going to be a high-value pick just because the injuries and underwhelming play at Duke are going to scare teams off, which will hurt his stock on draft night. In a few years, however, I think most will look back and place Dariq much higher in future redrafts. Whitehead has shown his floor will be an impactful 3&D wing at the minimum. The amount of polish and familiarity he’s already shown with creating his own shots provide optimism that he could blossom into a real scoring option. Long term, you could be looking at a do-it-all wing.
He’ll be five weeks away from turning 19 on draft night, making him one of the youngest players in the class.
One week until the draft, are you starting to pick your favourite prospects for the 13th pick?
