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In-Depth Study: Andrea Bargnani's Contract Vs. the NBA

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  • In-Depth Study: Andrea Bargnani's Contract Vs. the NBA

    After the positive feedback I got from my “in-depth study: Amir Johnson’s contract vs. the NBA”, I decided to do one for Andrea Bargnani (Albertan_10 put the bug in my ear so if you like it, thank him, if you don’t tell him where to go and how to get there!) Just when I had all my research complied, “The Rumor” broke. At first I wasn’t sure whether it was worth posting given that he may not be around next season, but after putting in four hours of cutting/pasting/searching/page jumping I wasn’t going to throw in the towel. Besides, it might give us a better idea of what level of player he is, and whether he will be wanted on another team. Also, when it comes to Andrea Bargnani, what do we even know about him?!?!?

    Position: Plays Center, but might be better suited to play the PF or even the SF?
    Talent and Potential: Either a franchise player in the making or back-up towel boy for the Iowa Energy.
    Trade Value: I have no friggin’ clue.

    Bargnani is the dead horse on this site, but I guess we just can’t help ourselves. I’ll state my bias at the outset: Was ok with his selection as a No.1. I watched his first couple seasons with optimism. I was disappointed with his lack progress (IMHO) last season, and this season he has failed to impress me at all. I wouldn’t call myself a “hater” but if I zero love for the “big spaghetti” and were I the gm I would’ve shopped him at the deadline. However, A LOT of my disappointment stems from the fact that Bargnani IS a former No.1 and has the largest contract on the team (although Jose makes more this season). My first step in trying to figure out whether Barg’s is boom or bust was to try to get a sense of where he is on the allstar/starter/bench player/scrub spectrum.

    All salaries are complements of our friends at HoopsHype.com
    W/ Statistics provided by Basketball-Reference.com
    My spreadsheet is available to those who want it, by contacting me.


    Bargnani’s contract looks like this

    2010-2011: 8 mil
    2011-2012: 9 mil
    2012-2013: 10 mil
    2013-2014: 11 mil
    2014:2015: 12 mil

    Bargs makes 8 mil this year, and 12 mil in his final year for an average salary of 10 mil. So where would those salaries (8,10, 12) show up on other teams, using their current roster salaries?


    Western Playoff teams Eastern Playoff Teams
    San Antonio 5th, 4th, 2nd Chicago 3rd, 3rd, 2nd
    Lakers 5th, 4th, 4th Boston 5th, 3rd (tied w/ Ray Allen), 3rd
    Dallas 6th, 5th, 3rd Miami 4th, 4th, 4th
    Oklahoma 2nd, 2nd, 2nd Orlando 5th, 4th, 4th
    Denver 3rd, 3rd, 2nd Atlanta 5th, 4th, 3rd
    Portland 5th, 3rd, 2nd Philly 3rd, 3rd, 3rd
    Orleans 4th, 3rd, 2nd New York 4th, 4th, 4th
    Memphis 3rd, 3rd, 3rd Indy 4th, 3rd, 1st

    West Lottery Teams East Lottery Teams
    Houston 3rd, 3rd, 2nd Charlotte 3rd, 1st, 1st
    Phoenix 3rd, 3rd, 2nd Milwaukee 4th (tied w/ Salmons) 3rd, 2nd
    Utah 5th, 3rd, 3rd Detroit 4th, 4th, 2nd
    Golden State 5th, 4th, 1st New Jersey 2nd, 2nd, 2nd
    Clippers 3rd, 2nd, 1st Toronto 2nd, 1st, 1st
    Sacramento 2nd, 2nd, 1st Cleveland 3rd, 3rd, 3rd

    FINDINGS:
    @ 8 mil you would be the 4th highest paid player on a Western Conference Playoff team OR an Eastern conference playoff team. You would be the 3rd highest paid player on a Western lottery or Eastern lottery team.

    @10 mil you would be the third highest paid player on a Western Conference team either playoff or lottery. You would be the 3rd or 4th (3.5) highest paid player on an Eastern Conference Playoff team and 2nd or 3rd (2.5) highest paid player on an Eastern Conference lottery team.

    @ 12 mil you would be the 2nd or 3rd (2.5) highest paid player on a Western Conference playoff team and the 3rd highest paid player on an Eastern Conference playoff team. You would be the highest or 2nd (1.5) highest paid player on a Western Conference lottery team and 2nd highest paid player on an Eastern conference lottery team.

    OVERALL average : 2.974666(repeating)
    Therefore, Bargnani gets paid like the 3rd highest paid player, not the highest or even the second highest paid player. Whether that means he should be/ or is the 3rd best player on our team is anyone’s opinion.

    Okay, we’ve established that compared to the salaries of players on the other NBA teams Bargnani gets paid like the 3rd best/highest paid player. So who do we compare him to? I thought about comparing Bargnani to the 3rd best player on other teams, but that is pretty subjective, plus I haven’t seen enough of other teams to do so with any confidence. A more straight forward way would be to compare him to the 3rd highest paid player on every other team, but the variance in salary and position made those comparisons tricky and the findings dubious.

    Instead I once again combed the rosters of every NBA team to find comparable contracts of PF/C. I came up with this list

    Lamar Odom
    Tyson Chandler
    Nick Collison
    Nenê (Does he only have 1 name, like Madonna?)
    LaMarcus Aldridge
    Marcus Camby
    Emeka Okafor
    David West
    Anderson Varejao
    Andre Blatche
    Charlie Villanueva
    Joel Pryzbilla
    Mehmet Okur
    Eddy Curry
    Luis Scola
    Chris Kaman
    David Lee
    Andris Biendrins

    FUN FACT: Nick Collison is the highest paid player on this list, this year, @ 13.3 million. However, he is the lowest paid player on this same list next year when he makes only 3.3 million. Ouch!

    I compared these players using per game stats, Per 36 Stats, and Advenced Metrics, here’s how Bargs did

    @his current Salary he is 14th of 19
    @ his avg. Salary he is 10th of 19
    Compared to other players w/ 3yr contracts or greater he is 5th out of 12
    Compared to other players on 4 yr or greater contracts he is 3 of 7

    PER GAME
    Games Played: tied for 9th w/ David Lee
    Games Started: tied for 7th w/ David Lee
    Minutes/Game: 2nd behind Aldridge
    FGA: 1st (Aldridge 2nd)
    FG%: 14th
    3pt Attempts: 2nd behind Villanueva
    3pt %: 3rd, behind Villanueva (1st), and Odom (2nd)
    FT attempts: 2nd, behind Aldridge
    FT%: 1st (West 2nd)
    Rebs: 15th
    Rebs: 14th
    Tot. Rebs: 15th
    Assists: 9th
    Steals: 12th
    Blocks 13th
    TO: 2nd
    Fouls: 13th
    Points: 2nd, behind Aldridge
    Age: 17th, only Blatche & Biedrins are younger @ 24



    PER36
    FGA: 1st
    FG%: 14th
    3PA: 2nd, behind Villaneuva
    3pt%: 3rd, behind Villaneuva and Odom
    FTA: 2nd(3rd), behind Nenê (2nd) Curry was actually first in this category but since he only played 7 games and averaged only 10 minutes per I removed him from most categories.
    FT%: 1st, West 2nd
    ORB: 18th, ahead of Villaneuva
    DRB: 19th (aka dead last)
    TRB: 19th (aka the opposite of first)
    Assists: 11th
    Steals: 16th
    Blocks: Tied for 15th w/ Collison and Scola, ahead of only Curry (18th) and Lee (19th)
    Turnovers: 4th (3rd if you don’t count Curry, behind only Blatche and Kaman)

    Fouls: Tied for 18th (Last) with Aldridge. Found this really interesting, because you could argue that Bargs SHOULD foul more (aka be more aggressive on ‘D’) but then do you also have to say the same thing about Aldridge?

    PTS: 1st ahead of Scola, Aldridge, West.

    Advanced Metrics
    PER: 7th, Aldridge (1st), Nenê (2nd) West (3rd)
    TS%: 13th, Chandler (1st), Nenê (2nd), Collison (3rd)
    eFG%: 14th, Chandler (1st) Nenê (2nd), Okafor (3rd)
    ORB%: 18th, ahead of only Villanueva, Camby (1st), Chandler (2nd), Okafor (3rd)
    DRB%: DEAD, Camby (1st), Pryzbilla (2nd), Chandler (3rd)
    TRB%: LAST, Camby (1st), Chandler (2nd), Okafor (3rd)
    Assist%: 11th Okur (1st), Odom (2nd), Lee (3rd)
    Steal%: tied for 15th w/ Kaman. Blatche (1st), Biedrins (2nd), Nenê (3rd)
    Block%: 14th, Camby (1st), Okafor (2nd) Kaman (3rd)
    To%: 15th (5th best) behind Villanueva (1st), Okur (2nd), Aldridge (3rd) Scola (4th)
    Usage%: (if you don’t count Curry) 1st, West (2nd), Aldridge (3rd)
    ORtg: 13th, Chandler (1st), Nenê (2nd), Collison (3rd)
    DRtg: 1st (read last-or tied for last w/ Curry if you don’t remove him)
    OWS: 9th, Aldridge (1st), Nenê (2nd), Chandler (3rd)
    DWS: 17th Odom (1st), West (2nd), Okafor (3rd), Aldridge (4th)
    WS: 13th, Aldridge, Nenê, (1st), Chandler (2nd) West (4th)
    WS/48: 14th, Chandler (1st) Nenê (2nd), Aldridge (3rd), West (4th)


    Bargnani is great at FTA & %, 3PA & %, not fouling people, and no team relies on their players from this list the way that Toronto relies on Bargnani. He has a good PER and takes care of the ball* or does he?. The rest of his offensive stats are average-below average. Unfortunately he rebounds like a zombie grandfather and his defensive rating and win shares are also at the bottom of the list.

    It is difficult to place him in this list because of the variance in his stats, but I think the most reflective statement would be that Bargnani is an average to below average performer in comparison to this group of players

    The good news that despite be an average to below average player Andrea has an average to below average salary, meaning that we probably aren’t losing a lot of value right now and that he would still retain decent value on the open market.

    The bad news is that unlike Amir’s contract which goes up in value year over year, Bargnani’s goes down in value UNLESS he improves his production/efficiency.

    If you didn’t think Bargnani was going to improve significantly over the next 1-2 years then THIS OFFSEASON would probably be the best time to move him. (I’d love to say that I sent this report to Coangelo a week ago and take credit for the rumour, but that would be a lie.)

    An Unlikely Ending
    Despite being off the Barg’s train for a solid year and a half, this exercise has changed my opinion of Andrea, if only by a little. He is basically being paid as if he was the 3rd best player on another team and based on how he measures up against other 3rd best players he is only average or below average, Yet all these other 3rd best players have a couple of things Bargnani doesn’t: actual best and second best players on their roster to draw the attention of the defense or guard the tough assignment. Bargnani is being relied upon like he IS out best player despite his limited abilities and corresponding contract. Even though defenses have focused on him and we’ve asked him to shoulder a lot of the offensive load, he has shown some offensive improvement--albeit this is offset by his diminished rebounding and win shares. Bargnani is NOT a player to build around, however, I am more inclined to agree with those Bargnani “moderates” who say that in the right system/coach/teammates he could be very efficient/effective. I have a feeling that the stigma he carries as a former number 1 and the way the franchise has marketed him in the past will keep him from being that kind of a role player here in Toronto, but only time will tell.

    Thank you for taking the time to read this article. Feel free to let me know what you think. Criticism is always welcome!

    edit: it’s 4am and I need to sleep. I’ll make the links work and fix and spelling/grammar I can find in the morning, until then hope it’s readable!
    Last edited by ezz_bee; Mon Mar 28, 2011, 04:11 AM.
    "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

    "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon
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