A win tonight could heal a few scarsDownload the Opening Tip here.
Beating the Magic tonight won’t make up for last year’s playoff boot but it’ll give the team a real shot in the arm, just like a win in Boston would have . This game will serve as a very good measuring stick as to how well this Raptors team is capable of hanging with the big boys early on. So far we’ve basically won the games we should win and lost to the teams that are considered at par or better than us (Boston, Atlanta and Detroit). Aside from the Philly split we haven’t pulled an “upset” this year and that’s what we’ll be looking to do tonight. Jermaine O’Neal was signed for matchups like this and after last year’s humiliation at the hands of Howard, we’ll see how well our enforcer handles their power player. Finally, we’ll see if Sam Mitchell has figured out how to use Andrea Bargnani to the team’s advantage and whether we finally have enough weapons to slow down their wings and stop the dribble penetration that tore us apart.
Chris Bosh is glad that we’ve got Jermaine O’Neal to matchup with Dwight Howard so he doesn’t have to:
“We can matchup with him better, we got bigger bodies. I can wrestle with him but not for too many possessions because that starts to wear me down. Jermaine’s bulit for that a little more than I am.”
Makes sense, Bosh has a leaner body that isn’t built for continuous physical contact, O’Neal’s a much better banger since he’s heavier and stronger. The tale of the tape reads like this: O’Neal and Howard’s listed height is the same at 6′11″ and Howard carries 5 more pounds than O’Neal. If you put the two side-by-side it’ll hardly look like it and that’s because Howard is the team’s second-heaviest player but has the fourth-lowest body fat percentage. If you’re into physical fitness you’ll understand that that’s a simply insane occurrence. We’re counting on O’Neal to do a better defensive job than Rasho did last year (4.6/2.6) and make life uncomfortable for Howard by pushing him away from the rim and not letting him get those team-deflating dunks off of offensive rebounds that leave you with a sense of hopelessness.
Jermaine O’Neal can be seen quoted as saying a lot of the same stuff in Grange’s piece which looks back at the Magic series. The key is for Jermaine is to stay in the game and not pick up cheap early fouls, something that’s been a real problem. It’s hard to have an impact from the bench and if Howard manages to get him out of the game in the first quarter, suddenly the roster looks a lot like the one that got killed last spring. We also need to be very selective when providing O’Neal help by doubling Howard, last year unnecessary soft-doubles 18 feet out cost us a lot of three pointers. If you’re going to double, double hard and make him make a tough decision. As for the Lewis/Bosh matchup, Chris is saying all the stuff that we fans want to hear:
“I have to make Rashard work. I have to make him play defense, make him guard the post. Try to wear him down. I have to be aggressive attacking the basket, Dwight goes for a lot of block shots so maybe that’ll leave Jermaine open for offensive rebounds and even dunks after a short pass.”
That sounds like a damn fine game plan to me but just keep in mind that Jermaine likes to do the exact same thing as Howard on the other end. Lewis and Bosh are both 6′10″/230 but Lewis has a quickness advantage over Bosh and we like to think that Bosh is the stronger player that can have success in the post. Last year Lewis caused havoc by head-faking Bosh at the 3-point line, inviting the double and then finding Bogans, Evans and Nelson at the wings. Lewis isn’t going to torch Bosh one-on-one, it’s the shots that he creates that become the problem. If Bosh can prevent Lewis from creating for others off the dribble it’ll close down a lot of scoring avenues for the Magic.
Andrea Bargnani is likely to get the start in the same arena where the first iteration of the SF experiment failed in spectacular fashion. That was a terrible move at the time as it shoved Bargnani into a position he’d never played in the midst of a pressure-packed playoff environment. It backfired and made Sam Mitchell look like a fool. He tried again in Game 2 and once again the team got off to a miserable start. When he switched back to starting Jamario Moon, things evened out and we were still in the game past the first quarter. So what will Mitchell do now? Is Bargnani’s good game against the Heat enough to warrant a start against the demon that his Hedo Turkoglu? I say, why not? After all this is the regular season and we got to find out exactly what Bargnani is made of and whether there’s been any real improvement in his wing defense. Tonight we shall find out, where’s your money at?
The Bargnani at the SF experiment worked nicely for one game and I’m glad it did, but I’m frankly embarrassed that a great analyst like Jack Armstrong is even mentioning McHale, Bird and Parish in the same sentence as Bosh, Bargnani and O’Neal. They’re flat out saying that they’re not making the comparison but……..they are, otherwise they wouldn’t have said anything.
Rebounding is going to be a big deal here and we would all greatly appreciate it if Bargnani grabs more than 5 rebounds (season high). The Magic are 8th and we’re 28th in that department, a full -6! Hopefully O’Neal didn’t use up his rebounding quota against Miami and can help out with 10-12 tonight. Lewis is likely to move Bosh away from the rim leaving O’Neal and Howard to duke it out for any loose balls and Bargnani (and the guards) have to step in there and clean the defensive glass or suffer throw-downs that’ll make Bill Walton proud.
Stan Van Gundy’s pre-game talk revolves around counting on matching a motivated Raptor team’s intensity and going big against our bigs:
“They’re different. It certainly changes things, but we can go a little bigger now against them. Our guys have to understand where the other team is at. They have most of their guys back and we eliminated them from the playoffs. I know how we felt getting beat by Detroit [the last few seasons in the playoffs]. After being in five games, it’s a big deal.”
Jose Calderon is once again questionable for the game and given how well Will Solomon played against the Heat, I don’t think Mitchell should rush him back. Now, this isn’t Mario Chalmers he’ll be up against, it’ll be Jameer Nelson who’s simply a better player. It’s a much tougher challenge and don’t kid yourself if you think Stan Van Gundy isn’t going to test Solomon’s ball-handling abilities early in the game. We need to withstand any pressure and not turn the ball over because the Magic are very good at converting turnovers to fast-break points.
I really think we need this one to snuff out some of the negativity that’s going around these areas, there’s a fine line between realism and blatant pessimism, or between homerism and supporting your team. I’m glad that we have readers who are both ends of the spectrum because it makes the discussion that much better. But remember this: We are all Raptors Fans and that’s why we’re here so give each other a handshake. And if you need a conversation starter how about Eric Smith and Paul Jones in a Motel 6 with a Hi8.
One last thing, we’ve been getting a lot of “Raps” lately and have decided to pick one from the lot and highlight it on the front page along with its author and call it Rap of the Day. It’s a way of motivating people to write thoughtful comments and not one-liners which I personally consider to be the death of a message board. We appreciate your Raps and if you’re just browsing the site without saying something (and the stats say that you are), throw in your opinion. We dig any feedback you might have regarding the site, the content, the writing and just about everything else - just give us a shout at info at raptorsrepublic.com. Also, while my colleagues are busy canceling their season tickets, I’m dying to go to games, so before you tear your tickets in disgust, just let me know so I can take them off of you.
We’ll try to put the stream up again on the front page of the site since the response was so well-received last time. We need this win tonight. Really do. Let’s go you Raps!!!!
Dino Gunners
TauEpsilonNu
FAQ
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138 Raps
Arse, how about a JO vs Howard line?
LineOMeter can only pull Raptors stats for now. It’ll soon be able to do head-to-head and shit…once I get some time.
keys to the game:
- smitches adjustments to svg’s adjustments
- o’neal/bargnani/bosh against the magic front court aka howard
- how well we defend against turkoglu and pietrus (still wish we got him, he would have been perfect…)
Oh and apparently Lewis’s D had been something JVG is raving about, so I think he may give Bosh more trouble then we think.
Touche Arse but seems like atleast 3-5 times a game guys are bolting at Kapono on the 3 point line to contest - which is when he does his cute little 2 step penetration. Just think what getting fouled on the 3 point line once every 2 or 3 games could do to gain space on the perimeter…
A picture is worth a thousand words……
Wow.. it’s like RealGM all over again.. have to skim through pages of personal beef to get to the real comments…. So tonight my top 5 questions that might start to get answered are as follows:
1) how much impact did USA basketball have on Bosh (i.e. does he take it to Lewis/whoever is guarding him?)
2) Is Bargnani becoming consistant?
3)How much impact did the big man camp have on his defense, can he frustrate, push howard away from the basket once JO hits the bench
4) Does the JO acquisition give the raps more up front toughness to better compete with the “tougher” teams in the L?
5) Did Sam learn anything in the playoffs last year, or does he get owned by SVG again?
Crap, took too long to post my question, and now it looks like I totally plagarized them… LOL..
I don’t know if we put any real stock into the game. I mean, it’s early in the season and I mean, a win is a win and a step above a conference rival. A loss would suck, but still wouldn’t mean all that much. I guess every game is worth evaluating, but wait another 5 or 10 games before deciding what all these games (combined) mean for the future of the raps.
I disagree with you, Khandor, on whether or not Bosh is a determining factor in Raptor wins and losses vs the Magic. I mean, you obviously can read the line-o-metre like everyone else and I see what you mean, but Bosh is our best player. We might win without his best game, but I bet our chances go down significantly when he sucks. I could be wrong, but stats usually indicate hardly anything about reality.
1) He’s in better shape to start the season and is looking to be more aggressive in previous years. He believes in himself more now except when playing against KG.
2) Bargnani’s 4/5 defense is definitely better but his rebounding is still miserable. I don’t think he’ll ever be the rebounding force we want him to be but oh well, shit happens. If he can up his scoring I can look past it. Tonight is a test of his 3 defense.
3) See 2.
4) Yes
5) We’ll see tonight, right?
MY TURN!
1) how much impact did USA basketball have on Bosh (i.e. does he take it to Lewis/whoever is guarding him?)
Mucho impacto!
2) Is Bargnani becoming consistant?
Cannot Compute - Not enough Data
3)How much impact did the big man camp have on his(Bargs) defense, can he frustrate, push howard away from the basket once JO hits the bench
I dont see Bargs on Howard much at all - I expect the 2 biggest bodies (JO and Hump) will be chosen to attempt to neutralize
4) Does the JO acquisition give the raps more up front toughness to better compete with the “tougher” teams in the L?
Yes. Yes! YES!! oops…I think i had an accident.
5) Did Sam learn anything in the playoffs last year, or does he get owned by SVG again?
Coaches dont win or lose games - but they can help keep them close by motivating/quick reactions… most of it is gaining and instilling confidence with the players.
1) I think there’s more barking then ever before, bite is (about) the same.
2) Too early? (it’s funny how ppl say certain players need more time, while other are done - I do the same,btw)
3) He was giving it to him more then once in the playoffs last year, no?
4) More presence? Sure? Toughness? I don’t think so.
5) 1 game out 4 tonight, with different players. Let’s see.
Jord, I really don’t get the “let’s wait until one quarter of the season is done” thinking. Coming out of the gates is more telling, IMO, of what to expect then how the middle or end play out.
I dunno Flux the bite has increased - atleast statistically… and JO being tough is on display when points in the paint differentials are on display… but to be fair CB’s increased intensity should contribute
Edgar, where’s the bite in the 4th (against a good team)? Pulling a David Blaine scares no one. JO getting his shot blocked 4 times and coughing up the ball in the clutch is not tough, IMO.
Arsenalist,
Whether tonight’s game proves to be ‘a test of Bargnani’s perimeter defense’ [or not] will, at least, in part, be determined by:
(i) Who his individual check is … if the Raptors decide to go with their ‘big’ line-up of Bargnani, Bosh & O’Neal for major minutes vs Turkoglu, Lewis & Howard,
e.g. If Bargnani is matched-up vs Hedo on D, it’s a legit test of these skills for AB, IMO; but, if he’s matched-up vs Rashard, it does not fall into that same category. IMO, Turk is much better off the bounce than Lewis is;
and,
(ii) If the Raptors’ defensive game-plan involves ’switching’ vs Picks set by Bargnani’s check on the Magic’s ball-handling ‘guards’ [not their #3's, #4's or #5's].
e.g. If the Magic are going to set relentless picks with AB’s check on Nelson, Pietrus, Lee, and Johnson-A … then it’s going to be a long [or a very short] night for Il Mago, on the defensive end of the floor.
If the Raptors then decide to go zone … what % the Magic shoot from 3-ville, will go a long way toward determining the Winner-Loser of this game. If Orlando shoots above 40% on 3’s … coupled with an edge in Rebounding Differential … there’s very good chance they’re going to get the W tonight.
I know what you’re saying Flux, I don’t mean “wait until one quarter of the season is done” if we’re something like 1 and 8, you know? But we’re above .500 and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this team (or maybe the worst). So I’m willing to wait for a little while longer and then evaluate what the team is like. I tend to think that the end of the season is key, like the last 20 games or so when teams start making real pushes for playoff positions. Although, if a team is already out of the picture, then of course the first 20 games mean something! I don’t know, but I like to reserve judgment for a few more games.
Actually, I’ve noticed something about Toronto fans (of the Maple Leafs and Raptors), each win is HUGE and each loss is absolutely DOOMSDAY. I’m not sure other fans act this way (though I could be wrong). I mean, I’ve lived in Edmonton and Vancouver and fans there definitely don’t respond to EACH game like Toronto fans do! It’s entertaining, but seasons are long.
I’m deliberating on who would be the best guard to whom regarding Bosh or Bargs defending Turk and Lewis… Lewis is a 3 pt chucker and Turk is more penetrating mid-range guy… tough…
I can’t see JO committing less than 3 fouls before the end of the 1st quarter, so I expect to see Hump out there playing hack-a-howard. Anyone else miss Pap Sow?
My call:
Magic 94 - Raps 87
Anyone else miss Pap Sow? - about as much as Jawai
Pap Sow? Why would I miss Pap Sow when we have Hump? As I said in the post if JO gets into early foul trouble this starts to look like Game 6 of last year’s playoffs. I can live with him committing a defensive foul or two but he’s got a tendency to do some pretty careless stuff like dipping his shoulders and pushing off when gathering himself to go up after an offensive rebound. We need his defense today, leave the offense up to Bargs/Bosh.
My call: 92-87 Raps.
My call is Orlando by 10 - not because i want it but O’neal’s due for a poor game and the lack of his presence both mentally and physically will be too much to overcome for this still soft team…
Man i cant explain how badly i want someone to throw it down on top of Dwight… just to bring him back down to earth.
Arsenalist,
I haven’t broken down every foul that JO’s has gotten, but it seems to me that at least ’some’ of his ‘fouls’ are attempts at drawing charges. The dipping of the shoulders and what-have-you are things that regular glass-cleaners do. Perhaps JO (six-time all-star) should get the benefit of the doubt.
P.S. Wicked site.
P.P.S. Do writers get paid to write on the site. It may be a stupid question but something that I would love to have answered.
P.P.P.S
on http://www.battersbox.ca I’ve read the excellent articles they post there about the Jays, and it has been implied that people get paid to write there, any comments?
jord,
——————
re: I know what you’re saying Flux, I don’t mean “wait until one quarter of the season is done” if we’re something like 1 and 8, you know? But we’re above .500 and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this team (or maybe the worst). So I’m willing to wait for a little while longer and then evaluate what the team is like. I tend to think that the end of the season is key, like the last 20 games or so when teams start making real pushes for playoff positions. Although, if a team is already out of the picture, then of course the first 20 games mean something! I don’t know, but I like to reserve judgment for a few more games.
——————
An interesting tidbit of info, perhaps, for the ’stats hounds’ in these parts.
Saw an interesting correlation last week, in the NHL, re: the Win % of teams that eventually go on to capture the Stanley Cup, in a given year, which showed that ‘How a team peforms in its first 20 games of the Regular Season had a higher significance level than what that team’s Win % was in the final 20 games of the Regular Season‘. In sharp contrast to ‘conventional wisdom’, how a dominant team starts the season [or not] has a stronger correlation to its eventual finish, as the Champ, than how it does ‘Coming the Down Stretch’, i.e. when the playoff battle supposedly heats up.
Have yet to see a similar set of stats [showing significance either one way or the other] pertaining to the NBA.
Makes sence since many sports teams like the pistons take games off/rest vets for the last 10 games (or after seeding is established).
Rishi: Thanks for the compliment. I’m a big JO fan but he often looks a little clumsy out there and a lot of his fouls are very deserved (except that Boston blocking foul - that was a bad call). I don’t think the refs remember him as a 6-time All-Star, they remember him riding the pine in Indiana in a suit. My stance is to give him till December to find his groove. I think you’ll see him start hitting that little 8-foot fadeaway in the paint and finishing those layups in traffic. He’s coming off 4 injury plagued seasons and naturally needs some time to find himself. Those of you who’ve played the game know what I’m talking about.
Nobody gets paid here. In fact all the expenses of the site: graphics, hosting, promotions, software etc are all being paid out of pocket by the five people who started this thing. We really don’t want to put ads on the site unless we really have to.
Richard
Nov 18, 2008 1:23 pm | Permalink
I love this site — it’s off to a great start.
Particularly, I love Arsenalist’s in-depth analysis. However, his bias against Mitchell infects his writing far too much and in doing so he loses credibility. This credibility is lost because anytime Mitchell is worthy of criticism, that criticism is devalued when it’s delivered by someone who is constantly criticizing Mitchell.
Wrong.
If anything, he just gained my respect. Your entitled to say harsh/mean things if your knowledgeable about what it is your write about. People love that believe it or not. Sam Mitchell is a lousy coach. I wish more people in the media can be like asenalist and be upfront about his coaching faults.
Yeah, I read that piece on the NHL too. I’m too lazy to think right now, but how might those stats be skewed? I mean, a good dominant team probably wins a lot at the beginning and the end, right? And obviously a team that does well right out of the gate could easily be championship material (ex: Celtics). But there are lots of teams that suck to begin the year but make the playoffs and do pretty good (ex: Washington Capitals). Plus, isn’t San Antonio usually a slow starter? I think there are lots of examples of slow starters that eventually find their rythm (I can’t spell that word…) and do well in the playoffs.
Khandor,
Interesting observation, but how are you defining signifcance? Higher correlation would be my guess (as opposed to a regression). This is my interpretation of the correlation, in the first 20 games, all the best players play. Then during mid-season, there are injuries and what have you. Then during the ‘final 20′ if you are comfortably within a playoff spot, you can coast. The NHL is like any other sport, you have the best players ready for the playoffs, you win.
Johnn19
Nov 18, 2008 1:17 pm | Permalink
Did anyone hear MLSE CEO Richard Petty on the Fan 590 yesterday, saying that “the door is open” for BC to go over the tax level, if the right deal comes along, at the trade deadline ?
Read it on Ryan Wolstat’s Courtside blog on the Sun.
I think it was mostly for PR reasons. The CEO of a sports enterprise will not make a bonehead comment and loose all respectability by saying, No we will not be going into the tax threshold now or ever.
Yeah, the last 20 games don’t really seem to mean much, as contenders rest their starters, others play rooks, some play hard only to make playoffs (sell tickets) and get bounced.
The 1st 20 may not be a complete tell all, (Lakers last year), but still much more telling then anything else. Boston went out on a tear, and won it all. So…
Joey, it’s Peddie ; )
But the man, also, says a few other thing regarding this, that IMO are pretty telling in what he really thinks or stands. I think the door is very much closed, not open as some tend to think.
This is from Hollinger’s ESPN Insider article:
Jerry Stackhouse anyone?
The nba soft cap trade rules are not that simple that you can make a trade to pickup a contract and exceed the tax by 10 million. Its the old “contract values must be matched within 125% plus $100,000 of their outgoing salaries” which translates into “you cant cheat the system and pickup serious amounts of salary. The only thing i can think of that would factor in would be the remainder of the mid-level exception - If it hasnt expired yet(dont think so). To summarize exceeding the tax wont likely happen because there is very little flexibility in salaries when traded, BC would have to find a team willing to take our junk for a contributer, and by going 500,000 over the cap their losing millions in revenue so it would have to be a no-brainer trade that matches the above circumstances. No-brainer trades are generally few and far between on their own.
Arse i see your point and he has the right skills but it makes me worry to see that the even the Mav’s dont want him lol
Courtesy of Mr. Hollinger:
Scouting report: Stackhouse is a very strong right-handed driver who earns free throws by beating defenders with a quick first step and then exploding toward the rim. He doesn’t explode quite as well at 33 but still can get by people; when he doesn’t, he’s added a step-back jumper that he uses quite a bit from short and middle distance. Though he’s only a mediocre perimeter shooter he’s outstanding from the foul line, which nicely complements his ability to get to the stripe.
Stackhouse is a reasonably competent wing defender who has the size to play small forwards and still moves fairly well. He doesn’t gamble or take himself out of plays, but he isn’t much of a factor from the help side, and despite being a strong leaper has become completely useless on the boards.
Stackhouse’s health is another concern, as he’s virtually guaranteed to miss 20 games with some kind of hamstring problem — in his four seasons in Dallas he’s had 92 absences.
2008-09 outlook: Stackhouse will be the Mavs’ sixth man, and given the club’s depleted bench he might play more than the 24.1 minutes he averaged a year ago. Of course, to do that he has to be on the court, and he’ll probably only be available for 60 games or so.
Nonetheless, expect him to pump out another season of double-figure scoring, strong foul shooting and a shooting percentage right around 40. He’s 33, but when healthy he still has quite a bit of zip in his step — and as the go-to guy for Dallas’s depleted second unit, he’s going to need it.
ALSO: Stackhouse will not play in the Mavericks’ Tuesday night meeting against the Bobcats, the Star-Telegram reports.
Spin: Stackhouse has been vocal about his displeasure with his role and recently asked to be released or bought out. The 14-year veteran appears to have likely removed himself from the active roster for the time being as his agent explores the options for his client.
= likely signed by top 5 team to chase rings
The most telling games may actaully be the 20 to 25 right after the all-star break. Good teams are still playing starters and fighting for an early playoff birth and home court advantage, middle of the road teams are fighting to stay in the hunt and bad teams are fighting off officially being eliminated. Once you get within 15 games to the end of the season there’s too much tanking, resting and mental mail-ins to really make an accurate assessment. That’s why any team that unexpectedly catches fire at the end of a season gets a question mark beside their name in my books.
I think all the games are meaningful, the only reason some say the first 15-20 aren’t is because they’re not indicative of how good the team might be and that’s because players are getting acclimated to their new teams. After that teams try to win every single game possible, the only exception being towards the end of the season when the top seed has clinched everything or when a team’s playoff positioning is set in stone, but those are only the last 5-10 games of the season.
“Raptoronto wrote: That’s why any team that unexpectedly catches fire at the end of a season gets a question mark beside their name in my books.”
True in any sport, the best example are the BlueJays, those guys end the season of with such a bang that the GM is teased enough to not blow up the whole operation hoping what he saw in September was the “real” team. Come April its back to the same old nonsense. The Jays have been stuck in this cycle for the last 13 years.
I think Battier would be as good as any for trade targets- he has a 3 year contract at a reasonable price that houston may want to ditch to get into the 2010 frenzy - and he’s their 3rd wing at best. As a player he’s essentially the original Anthony Parker.
Battier would be amazing! But he’s one of the best defensive players in the league, no way Houston is giving him up without getting a lot in return.
If the raps want to trade for someone, we’ll have to aim low, unless we want to trade Bargs, which I wouldn’t want to do. We have NOBODY to trade for anyone good. Graham is not good enough to play in the NBA, Moon is less than average, Kapono might be decent for the right team, and Hump is a blockhead.
I think we might have to be happy with this team, unless we sign some free agent or pull over a euro.
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