There’s little doubt that Hedo Turkoglu is a talented basketball player. Few 6’10” players can handle and pass the ball as well as he can and he happens to have ice in his veins. But I’m sure most fans – and hopefully Hedo as well – expected more this year.
Expectations (and pay) are too high
Believe it or not, Hedo is not performing significantly worse than other years. Certainly he’s regressed somewhat – largely due to him not calling his own number enough. His assists per 40 minutes metric is identical to last season and his true shooting percentage and rebounding numbers are very similar.
His PER score certainly isn’t great – he’s ranked 20th of the small forwards in the league. Seems to me we want a bit more effective SF for $53 million. Heck, rookie Chase Budinger is ahead of him.
As we previewed before, Hedo is one of the most unselfish big men in the game. Out of 196 forwards and centers we screened from basketball-reference.com (we removed all players with < 250 MP), Hedo is second only to this LeBron James fellow in Assist Percentage (defined here)
He’s just not taking enough shots. Bosh and Bargnani need to get their touches of course and he’s one of the key guys to get the ball ™ to them.
What about his shot location data?
Source: original data from Hoopsdata.com
The most glaring difference is his reduced attempts at the rim – he’s taking 44% less attempts than his average. This year, he definitely seems a bit slow at turning the corner after a Bosh high screen. Overall, he’s attempting fewer shots at all distances. If we look back at the first table, we note his usage is down a bit – hence the famous ball(tm) quote. But its one thing to get the ball more – and another to be effective with it. When he’s not getting to the rim, he’s shooting a low percentage from 10 feet out to 23 feet (<35% combined). The league average from this distance is almost 40% in both cases.
“But wait until close games – and the playoffs – he’s clutch!”
Let’s settle this now: he’s fearless – but NOT clutch.
I certainly understand, fans see this replayed 20x on SportsCenter and YouTube.com and it’s difficult to view Hedo as anything but clutch.
To achieve clutch “status”, I think we need to base it on more than a few shots. I believe the definition of clutch should be something like “the player performs as well – or often better – in critical moments of close games as one would when the pressure is off”. I define fearless as “not being afraid to fail”. Those are two different things.
Fortunately, we have a bit of data to work with.
1) For the full 2008-09 season, 82games.com showed Turkoglu only shot 35.7% FG% in clutch time and only 20.0% from beyond the arc. He attempted plenty: 7.2 three pointers per 48 min of clutch time. His assist ratio falls to only 3.6 per 48 minutes during that period. LeBron James has 12.6 per as a comparison.
82games.com defines clutch time as “4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points”
2) Turkoglu had the lowest Roland Rating out of any Magic player in the playoffs that played material minutes: -2.4 in the 2008-09 playoffs.
3) His effective field goal percentage (eFG%) was 43.3% in the 2008-09 playoffs during clutch time – significantly lower than his 48.1% overall percentage in those playoffs and 47.8% during that season.
How to make Hedo a Hero
1) Ball movement – Toronto’s ball movement was much better the last two games. It’s not purely because Chris was out of the line up (his assist percentages, as noted above, are quite good). In these games, the team and coaches understood the need to move the ball more actively to get open looks without their go to guy in the line up. What happened? Hedo shot an eFG of 52.0% (solid) and recorded 15 ppg and 5.5 apg.
2) Increase usage – but with better shot selection. This should happen as a result of #1. Hedo needs to be more aggressive – and selective – in getting his most effective shots up. Triano needs to adjust as well: get Hedo screens in order to get him driving to the hoop. As well, force Andrea to kick out more for a Hedo three – where he is shooting a highly effective 56.1% eFG.
3) Ball movement, part 2 – for you as well Hedo. Late in games, you get the ball…. and wait. And everyone in the building knows you’re going to shoot (hint: this includes the coach of your opponent). And you know what happens? They’re prepared. And thus you force it. And therefore you shoot 20% from beyond the arc. Fool ‘em Hedo. Take that assist per 48 min from 3.6 to 7.0. Keep ‘em guessing. And become our hero.
Team ball is the best kind of ball ™
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60 Raps
Great post, Tom. The link for the definition of Assist Percentage is broken though, should be this:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
Thoughts on defensive effectiveness?
Thank you Ripp – now fixed.
82games.com and Basketballvalue.com data suggests he’s a liability on defense and its hard to argue against it.
Hrm, there is a discrepancy between the two. 82games.com (well, opposing PER) suggests that opposing SFs are not very productive when he is on the floor.
Look at the 2009-2010 +/- numbers, our defense seems to suffer when he is on the court (versus when he is off.) However, this is probably also due to the superior defenders who usually come in for him at the SF spot (Wright and Weems).
It is funny, if you look at the 2008-2099 +/- numbers, both Orlando’s offense and defense improved with him on the court.
My own feeling is that he is a mostly average man defender who can be a positive with a good team defensive scheme. Since we lack this safety net, it makes him less effective defensively.
Although his numbers are roughly similar, the problem is that I’ll wager his consistency is not like it was last year. He’s having too many games of 6 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, which he can’t have in the playoffs or late in the regular season.
In regards to your clutch analysis, I think Hedo is better as a distributor and decision maker in crunch time. I think BC put the idea in Hedo’s head when he signed him that he can take the final shots in the last minute, whereas he should be setting up other buckets, and only taking what he’s given instead of forcing shots.
Good point – re: consistency
Percentage of games within the point range:
Points This year Last year
0-9 30% 6%
10-19 58% 56%
20-29 12% 34%
30-39 0% 4%
Excellent analysis!!
My non emperical evaluation is that Hedo has an aggrevating tendancy to take low percentage shots at inopportune times (e.g. a contested three, early in the shot clock, when the Raptors are in a scoring drought and Bosh and bargnaniare on the floor)
The assist/fg ratio means little unless it is calibrated by an average time of possession. Bargnani has been critized as a “ball stopper” but that is nonsense as his ball time is minimal and his touches come much later in the shot clock. When Turk is on the floor in Triano system he is a playmaker, so his numbers must be evaluated by how much time he has with the ball. His should be compared with guards, because he is in essence filling that role.
Is there data that confirms he gets the ball much later in the shot clock? Haven’t come across this data and it would be quite interesting.
I would be happy for somehow to show me how good a passer Bargnani is.
someone made the same claim a couple days ago – i think it was on RR – but the #’s not only didn’t support that assertion, they showed that bargs more often than not receives the ball in the early- to mid-point of the shot clock.
82games.com has some shot clock distribution data for players. Here is Bargs:
http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR12.HTM
34% of his attempts come within the first 10 seconds, 29% from 11-15, etc. This distribution is similar to CBs (http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR13.HTM), and several of the other players on the team (except for Belli, Johnson, Weems, and DeRozan).
yeah, that’s what i remember seeing. so, bargs takes almost 2/3rds of his attempts with ~10 seconds remaining on the clock (meaning he actually receives the ball before then).
I think you might be misreading it…he takes nearly 2/3 of his shot attempts after 10 seconds have elapsed. Or stated less awkwardly, nearly 1/3 before 10 seconds have elapsed.
Assuming I’m reading it correctly, then it says Weems by comparison seems to take 44% of his shots within the first 10 seconds. And since he gets most of his points from transition opportunities, this seems right.
well, if bargs takes 34% of his attempts before 10 seconds have elapsed on the shot clock, and he takes a further 29% when between 11 & 15 seconds have elapsed (leaving 9 seconds remaining), that totals 63% of his shot attempts being made with at least 9 seconds remaining on the clock. i think we’re saying the same thing…i just lumped the ’0-10′ & ’11-15′ portions into a ’0-15′ portion of the clock.
to imply that bargs takes ‘most’ of his attempts in late shot clock situations is simply not true.
of course, very few possessions in total actually get down to the ‘less than 3 seconds left’ point.
Ah, heh. My bad.
You don’t need stats, just watch the games. I don’t think Bargs is a ball stopper because his shots appear to be the result/goal of the offensive set (most of the time).
It doesn’t make sense to pass it when you have a wide-open 12 footer to shoot coming off a screen/pick. Also, his 3′s are usually kicked out to him, where his job is to shoot the open 3 thats kicked out to him.
Those are two situations where I absolutely agree. But those are not close to the many situations he’ll find himself in during any given game. Should Andrea be better than the bottom quartile of passers though? I would hope so. Being a triple threat (rather than largely a double threat) keeps the D more honest.
Bosh’s touches are similar – why is it that his numbers are so much different?
I believe there are a few times a game were Andrea forces or otherwise takes an awkward shot – where a pass would likely lead to a better look. He’s shot is excellent and he’s starting to drive the ball better – why not have a goal to become a more complete player? A few extra passes a game (rather than forcing things) couldn’t hurt.
But when Bargs does get the ball on the block, he rarely kicks the ball out or reposts or anything like that, too many times he has tunnel vision.
umm if Bargs gets the Ball on the block don’t you want him to make a move. If he saw a double team this may be different, but he has seen what, 2 double teams all year.
Gets criticized for not going down low enough, but when he does he doesn’t pass it out enough…..
absolutely, and his post game has really started to come around. he doesn’t have a wide range of moves (ok, just one) when posting up, but he’s already got that move to the point where it’s almost unguardable (the left block post; turn to the top of the key, one dribble, little half-hook/half-jumper from ~8 ft). as he refines his post game & defenses realize he needs to be doubled, it will be interesting to see how he adapts.
Ok fine, even when he gets it at the top of the key, he only passes as a last resort. Its good for him to be down in the post and to make a move but he needs to have greater awareness of whats around him, he could be making a pass that leads to a better shot instead of forcing a lower percentage shot.
Just BTW, I like Bargs as a player, but as soon as someone criticizes his game, wave after wave of fanatical fans leap to his defense, he’s not that good yet.
If Bargs has the ball, I for one want him to look to score. He is so versatile offensively there are few in the league that can stop him. When they can stop him in one aspect… he has the ability to beat them in another.
Until teams start treating him like they do Bosh (double teams, or defenses specifically designed to stop him), I would like to see him consistently try to score when the ball comes to him… well within reason ofcourse. Down low, Mid range, long range, and driving to the net. Its when he tries to live with just one of those (usually long range) that he runs into problems.
Im not going to compliment Bargs for being a passer or playmaker… the boy should be inticed to score. If we are going to emphasize bargs needing to improve an aspect of his game… passing is likely the least of his ‘problems’.
Nets doubled him a few times, and he was passing out right away. No problem there.
Does an offense improve if one of their star players is a triple threat rather than a double threat? Does increased ball movement usually help or hurt a team?
Mike Miller is the famous counterexample, I guess. I spent a lot of time watching Wizards games this weekend, and he is definitely a guy that should be more selfish. Really painful to watch him pass up shots..and get torched on the other end.
‘Does an offense improve if one of their star players is a triple threat rather than a double threat?’
ofcourse it does… marginally maybe, but the more ‘threats’ you pose the better. Would Bosh be as good as he is if he couldn’t shoot, drive or post up. I highly doubt it.
‘Does increased ball movement usually help or hurt a team’
is this teams ball movement not already extremely good. Has Bargs every truelly hurt this teams ball movement. I’m not saying Bargs should just pull a Belli once the ball is in his hands…. but he (and this team) should play to his strengths when possible.
I agree. Bargs is a scorer first. So is Bosh. If either of them have it in/near the key facing single coverage, they should look to score above all else.
What, would you rather have him kick it out to Sonny or Demar for a failed long attempt at two points?
You say he should be making a pass that leads to a better shot… what shot is that? Isn’t he the second biggest offensive threat on the team? (after Bosh, obviously.)
Scott.
my beef with hedo this season, on the offensive end, is that not only does he not take that many shots (which is fine if bosh and bargs get theirs), but the ones he takes are often bad shots. how many times have we seen him driving to the basket out of control looking for a foul that never gets called? and when he does get fouled he clanks his FTs. how many times does he take a contested 3 late in the shot clock?
i have no problem with his assist and rebound numbers. but on the defensive end i never expected much to begin with. he’s tall so he uses his height well, but against quicker SFs and aggressive offensive rebounders, he gets exposed. badly. his help defense is poor, so is his boxing out. so i guess that comes down to effort?
i think he’s not at all that comfortable or clear with his role on this team yet. and i don’t think it’s his fault alone. it’s hard for him to coexist with jose because both of them are used to having the ball in their hands and creating for others.
it’s a product of becoming ‘the guy’ in TO. he’s taken on the (media-created?) role of end-of-game ‘clutch’ shooter, when he’s clearly at his best as a facilitator.
just re-read the numbers from tom’s replay to post #2 – hedo scored more than 10 pts in 90% of magic games last year? GTFO! and just to clarify – the 4% of games scoring b/w 30 & 39 was last year.
on the whole, i don’t mind his scoring #’s being down – what bothers me is the tendency to have him hang back all game (both from a scoring/facilitating perspective), and then, when it’s late/close, he assumes this role that he seems to be somewhat ill-suited to perform.
I completely agree with jlongs.
Hedo has not made a place for himself on our team yet. Weird to say that being we’re 50+ games in …. hummm, will he ever ?
Second, how many times has he passed on semi-good looks to make a pass. Hedo the Ball is for you dude, do what you do, we paid to see it in a Raps jersey !!! Do it.
Lastly, I think he’s got 2 speeds or should I say 2 different games, first is the guy that the other team thinks might do something and the other 4 on the floor take advantage of it and get extra O for him being on the floor and secondly, when he wants too, and it seriously just looks like that, he trys in a game. When he does, you can tell on box …. ball.
This isn’t the Gman that has been a part of this forum for six months. Don’t know who you are but I’d appreciate it if you changed your handle.
Well, that stat about Assist Percentage on Fowards and Centers was all I needed to see. We can say all we want about Hedo but for our style of play, he’s the perfect fit at the Starting line up. He is a player that makes everyone around him better, and thats something you can say about very few NBA players. He understand the game like the best PG in the league and thinks in the team first. If he cares about his numbers, he would take a lot more shots, instead he is still passing the ball to find a better shot.
In a game based in numbers is very difficult to understand his contributions to the team, you have to look at the games and know how basketball is played. The Raps, as a team, have a particular style of play based on moving the ball and finding the better shot situation, and that’s in my opinion the must beautiful basket that can be played.
Sure, he had very bad games this season but don’t forget that last year we were a 30 win team, and now with his adition, along with Jarret, we are talking about a 47-49 win season
Great points as always…I’ll add that Turk is also a player that needs his teammates to “learn” his game as much as he does theirs…Bosh and Bargs (our # 1 and 2 options) are “give em the ball and get out of the way” O players (a product of the positions they play). Turk on the other hand thrives when his teammates are in motion and can find holes/open lanes in the D before anyone else can see them. He’s a very difficult player to assess based on numbers; bottom line is that he needs to pick up his intensity and effort, which I believe he will. If he does and Derozan finds some consistency we can be a very interesting team.
wow just spent like 5 minutes writing a huge paragraph and Raptoronto you just wrote what i wanted to say much more eloquently and in fewer words. lol
Don’t waste it, post it! If Hedo lets us down I don’t want be the only fool.
Good discussion going on here. Interesting stuff.
Can we please stop disecting every little aspect of the game. It is played bt human beings, who are flawed, not by machines. As stated by Raul, the way the Raptors are trying to play the game IS the way the game was meant to be played. Team first, not stats, where the sum of the parts is greater than the individual pieces. Some nights 90 points will be enough , some nights 120 won’t. Let’s see how the parts fit and enjoy the results.
interesting post. “interestinger” comments.
I’m hesitant to look at these numbers and use them to point out faults in Hedo’s game or use them to emphasize a point.
There are so many factors that could be taken into account that affect certain %’s like injuries on the opposing team, injuries on your own team (meaning more or less touches), reffing of the game (some nights it can be atrocious), mid season trades, back to back’s etc etc. All these seem to be forgotten when looking at these numbers.
Also there was a point a few posts back about bargs taking shots 60% of the time with more than 10 seconds left on the clock – said in the manner that pointed to the trait that he may be a ‘ball hogger’. Again that’s a tough stat to apply to his game, what if the majority of those “quick” shots are in transition when he’s wide open – a very popular and effective play for the raptors. I don’t mind those shots at all – although of course we’ve all seen bargs force his game on his off nights and I’ve cursed at my television as well when that goes down.
Anyway, back to my point, it’s an interesting post with a few good stats that ‘may’ explain hedo’s (and the team’s) short comings in a stats but I’d take these numbers with a grain of salt and not hang my hat on it. just my 2 cents.
wow that’s a lot of typos
‘Also there was a point a few posts back about bargs taking shots 60% of the time with more than 10 seconds left on the clock – said in the manner that pointed to the trait that he may be a ‘ball hogger’.’
that wasn’t the intent (to imply that bargs is a ball-hog) – it was simply to refute the notion that bargs doesn’t get the ball until late in the shot clock, which would adversely affect his shot selection. the implication being that he needs to be more of a focal point on offense, instead of an afterthought…the #’s simply show that he isn’t actually an afterthought, and that he becomes involved in possessions more often than not with more time on the clock than some people assume.
the beauty of stats is that they even out over time – so things like who you’re on the court with, who your opponents are, who’s officiating the game…they all do have an impact, but they should – over time – have relatively the same impact on everyone.
Well then I mis-read that comment completely, and agree that Bargs is usually a focal point with the offense.
In regards to stats, I personally disagree, I think “relatively” the same impact on everyone” is essentially where it can get muddy. but agree to disagree.
Orlando made Hedo looked a lot better then Hedo is.
We are a better basketball team when Hedo is not on the court.
When we have Wright and one of Derozan/Weems there is more athletisim and defence.
Hedo is not going to get better he is going to get worse.
I would suggest trying to move him in the offseason.
His contract will be tough to move but not impossible.
If Orlando does not win a title this year maybe a Hedo for Gortat and filler maybe Bass would work or
Hedo to Detroit for Hamilton or anything to rid ourselves of BALL.
Love the Raps but Hedo has to go in the offseason.
SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO shit
You write like Frank Z
Sounds OK for now, let’s wait til playoffs are over though. He most likely isn’t going anywhere in the foreseeable future, we’re stuck with him and his contract, it is what it is.
i’ve had no problems with hedo when he puts in the effort. he’s been vital to us in a handful of games this season, a few ok, and a number of crap ones. but if and when he puts in the effort, specially on defense, going for the boards or being aggressive on offense, he makes our team better.
so rather than trading him, i would suggest that the team find a way to get consistent effort out of him, in a way orlando was able to do last season. they had to push him hard.
i don’t believe orlando made hedo better, but that orlando knew how to use his skills better, or perhaps he was a better fit to their style. he was the lone creator on offense in orlando, while here he shares it with jose and jack. that means less touches, less chances to create, less to show on the box.
interesting enough though, while his scoring is down, his assist-turnover ratio is higher.
You kidding?
I’ve seen the games without Hedo playing and we didn’t look good, he knows how to play. He doesn’t suck.
Not kidding….Sure Turk “knows how to play”
But his skills are declining faster then Arsenalits bank card at diamonds….His 3pt shot is flat…And he has lost a step.
His attitude is shit….His ball comment was a joke…He is not getting better he is getting worse by the second…. He just got a bit worse…
Good Ol’ Diamonds…
No one will take Hedo’s contract now. He might be tradeable in 2 years but right now !!! It is zero chanse.
Do u really think Orlando will give us Gorat and Bass for Hedo ?
Would you do it if you were a GM ?? Get a 32 year old player with 4 years left in his contract for almost 40 million, who strugled the whole season !!!
The only chanse, we might have is the Hedo becomes suuuper hot in Play offs and someone fell for that.
So lets pray for that now
it’s cause he needs to be wearing a mask! funny article on dime yesterday – http://dimemag.com/2010/02/an-open-letter-to-hedo-turkoglu-%E2%80%9Cdon%E2%80%99t-be-stupid-%E2%80%9D/
Thanks for the great Analysis …
I always thought some people here had a wrong idea about Hedo. Hedo is NOT a big time scorer or play maker or … But he is able to give you little bit of all things.
He like Odom ( Odom is a better rebounder and Hedo better Passer). I think Hedo is also Lazy like Odom :) . Look at Odom’s number this season and compare it to his play off stat last season.
I’d like to address the over-used term of “clutch”. To many players are labelled as clutch in this league for hitting a couple of timely shot’s, that get magnified by Kenny, Barks, Steve A Smith……
The ONLY clutch player in this league is the “black mamba”, he consistently rapes teams at the end of games. No one is even close, not even Mr big shot billups. For Hedo to have even been mentioned as a clutch shooter is a joke.
Kope rapes memphis again…….
yeah Hedo, still have ambition for him…
We haven’t seen much plays run through him, and havent allowed the team to gel to his ball handling styles.. We changed our teams outlook the whole.. ‘surroung your talent’ with 3 point shooters, which was BC’s first team style. (with kapono, parker aquisitions..) But we branched away from that style somewhat for a more althletic, rugged look… and Hedo is from that 3pt style of team in Orlando. So his runin kick out style isnt going to generate as much assists, as the ball moves after he kicks it, negating his assists.
Id just like to see more Hedo ball handling **without Jack or Calderon on the floor.. something we havent seen from triano this year. JUST TO SEE!!! (im not afraid of the results, but Id like to see them.)
Demar
Antoine
Hedo
Bargs/amir/Evans
Bosh
It would also give Demar more of a chance to hold the ball, which ultimately I’d like to see from our shooting guard position regardless of who it is, giving our team a different look.
I guess what im saying in the end is, We need to try using Hedo in multiple ways before more judgement, Seems like we only use him in the fourth quarter, and our team is expected to gel to that 5 minutes of play.
I feel as if I just found my home!
Thank god for critical fan stimulation using #’s instead of pure opinion.
With regards to hedo handling the “ball”, I believe JT does his best with a player who really does not seem to care about the outcome of a game until the 4th Q.
I have watched every Raps game this season and dread him even being in the game with less than 5 mins. left.
J knows what he’s doing.
He literally cares more about making sportscenter highlights than playing a full game, which helps the Raps, believe it or not, in the long run.
I dunno, Don’t think its any player’s dream to fail.. It’s not like he’s going to play bad to get traded, because no one will want him. I just don’t see it. But yes I see your lack of trust by Triano as he didnt use his Pg’s last year, and resorted to Parker handling the ball, while Calderon was injured… But that was also end of season tactics, where bonsu picked up most of his acclaim.
ID JUST LIKE TO SEE IT. Be able to get stats of what its liek to try that. We’ve seen him resort to small ball so many times, but how about BIG ball. If jack’s offence is a liability, and Calderon plays with suspect defence.. It’d be nice to see something new.
**in a turk perspective.
****psps in a minus 4th quarter perspective.
“The most glaring difference is his reduced attempts at the rim ”
Does running sideways to the basket and throwing the ball vertically or into the 3rd row while flopping count as an attempt at the rim?
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[...] The Lampshade: Hedo Turkoglu has been a disappointment so far this season, and Tom Liston attempts to find out what the Raptors can do to get him back on track. [Raptors Republic] [...]
[...] Believe it or not, Hedo is not performing significantly worse than other years. Certainly he’s regressed somewhat – largely due to him not calling his own number enough. His assists per 40 minutes metric is identical to last season and his true shooting percentage and rebounding numbers are very similar. Raptors Republic [...]