So Raptors fans, this is it. 13-17. This is what we have to show for the first 30 games of the 2009-2010 season. Weren’t we told that this season would be different? Weren’t we promised by management that this team would compete, play defense, and challenge in the East? Wasn’t a full training camp, the toughness of Reggie Evans, and the addition of a fourth quarter closer supposed to fix the problems with last year’s roster? We were told that 2009-2010 would be better.
And now, the excuses continue:
- Reggie has been injured
- Jose is injured
- Guys aren’t comfortable yet
- Guys don’t trust each other on D
- We don’t shoot enough 3’s?
Seriously?
In football, Bill Parcel’s has a great quote, “you are what your record is” and what we are is a team, who 30 games in is: 13-17, 4 games under .500. That means, just to finish 41-41 (forget about winning 45+ games and cracking the top 5 in the East) we will need to go 28-24 and play at a .530 clip. And yet, for a team playing .433 ball, for a coach who has lost 2 out of every 3 games he has coached at the NBA level (and by an average margin of double-digits) that seems pretty lofty, no matter what the schedule looks like. Let us not forget that this team’s longest win streak this season is 3 games (and that included an OT win over 8-17 Washington, and W’s over the 10-16 Bulls and the 5-23 T-Wolves).
Take a look at what remains on tap for the Raps and (play the game yourself) check off which games you think are wins and losses and then total them up. By my most optimistic accounts, the team could go 25 and 27 – nowhere near enough to finish .500. If they were to play out the rest of the season like this, they would finish with 38 wins. Ironically, that still may be good enough to land the 7 or 8 seed in the east and a first round match up with Boston or Orlando. However, that wont be good enough to keep Bosh, and furthermore, you are better off for the future of the club to be in the lottery than you are to be the 8th seed in the east. I’m not sure that the geniuses at MLSE feel the same way. In fact, I’m pretty sure they would rather have a home playoff game than a chance at a game changing point guard in the draft. So, assuming that the 8th spot is NOT good enough for this club, there are at this point 4 options:
1. Tweak and make a run at the 5 spot
We all by now have heard the Jack Armstrong sound bytes about how this is the 5th most talented team in the East and that they should be striving for the 5th seed. So assuming it will take about 45 wins to get the 5th seed, you would need to tweak the existing roster and the mood in the dressing room to get this team to start to achieve to its potential.
Here tweaking would mean something along the lines of:
- Firing the coach
- Signing a vet, a recent retiree (i.e.: a Stackhouse or Bowen) to help shore up the dressing room and provide some solid minutes off the bench (12-15)
- And perhaps a minor deal for a legit point guard to handle some minutes while Jose is injured, i.e.: Belinelli to (insert team of choice) for (insert point guard of choice).
2. Cash in on your assets and rebuild on the fly
Here, you would acknowledge that this year is a write-off (may make playoffs but won’t win a round), but that you are not that far off from being a competitive team in the East. To choose this option you would also have to believe that Andrea has enough in him to take over this franchise. So, the key to rebuilding on the fly is to cash out your best asset (Bosh) while the value is still fairly high. The peak point for trading Bosh has already come and gone and the price of what you can expect in return will continue to decrease with every calendar day that passes and every Raptor loss. We should be looking at moving Bosh before the season is totally ruined and teams know that you have to move him or else watch him walk. Over the last month in my podcasts I’ve suggested several trades that you have voted on, sending Bosh to places like Chicago, Miami, Houston, Utah and OKC. In each case the package that has come back has included, some form of cap relief, a starter/younger prospect and a first round draft pick. Any package must include a first rounder, a current starter, and either cap relief or a young prospect.
Make a move like this, and you can continue to build around a young nucleus of guys like Andrea, Marco, Amir, DeMar, Sonny, and Jarret, who are all under 25. Besides, you can’t be much worse without Bosh. Really.
3. Blow it up and start again
Here is an option, why not blow it up? Why not make everyone available and start dumping players for expiring deals and number ones:
- Turkoglu, Calderon, and Banks to Houston for McGrady and a #1
- Bosh to Utah for Boozer and a #1
- Bargnani to Miami for Haslem and a #1
The point here is that it doesn’t matter what you get back, all you are looking to do is move out any contract that exists beyond this year and accumulate as many #1s and as much cap space as possible for 2010. If you were to go this way, it is possible that all that remains on this team come July 1st is DeRozan, Johnson, 50 million in cap space, and 5 first round picks in the upcoming draft. FYI, the draft looks to have some really strong prospects in addition to John Wall, the stud PG. And with all your team’s top players gone, Triano is free to coach without criticism, you can give significant minutes to DeRozan and Johnson and see what they can do, and you are likely to challenge both NY and NJ for the rights to draft John Wall.
4. Stay as is
History has shown that this is Colangelo’s most likely course of action. In fact, on CBC during halftime of Sundays game versus New Orleans, Colangelo said that he has no plans to either fire Triano or overhaul the roster. And while his words are inspiring and can make even the most disheartened Raptors fan, like myself, believe that there is better to come in 2010, the proof is in the figgy pudding. And so 2009 ends exactly the same way as 2008 did, with an underachieving roster, a coach without a proven track record for success, a significant amount of fear surrounding Chris Bosh’s approaching free agency, and no apparent cause for concern from MLSE or no stated intention to make the necessary changes to right the ship.
FYI, last year we were 11-17 on Christmas day.
As always, standing in the key, I’m the Dr., I’ve got my feet planted and I’m planning on taking a charge!
phdsteve
Note: Check back later to hear the Christmas Carols being performed!
173 Raps
The value of Bosh is not affected by the fact that “teams know that you have to move him or else watch him walk,” it is affected only by the offers what other teams offer. You claim would only makes partial sence if their was just one team Bosh, coube traded to, which we know is not the case.
not true. all it takes is one interview where Bosh says he thinks he might go somewhere else, and his trade value goes down dramatically.
it would be different if he still had another year on his deal, b/c the team you were trading him to would have some insurance that he would stay. But with him hitting the market, if there is any indication that he really is serious about bolting (and Im not sure that is true- b/c he keeps saying all the right things about TO) it would affect his value
But that interview hasn’t happened and it’s not 2012. There’s a reason your not a GM. You can’t react all the time, you set a strategy and then let it play out, it’s to early to over react. Cowards jump the gun.
This is false, Bosh value is set by competition, not by some subjective “value” derived from interviews or oppinions. If you are the Heat, for instance, you have to offer more that the, e.g., the Mavericks, etc, or you have no deal. If you gave the capspace, you can try and convice Bosh to take less money, but history shows that is not likely. Teams which require a sign and trade as a result of cap issues must deal with the Raptors, and thus must provide terms better than any other team.
Have to agree. The only interview that would drastically lower Bosh’s trade value (any lower than it already is) is if he said “I’ve made up my mind and I’m looking forward to joining NY/Miami/etc next season.” With that kind of guarantee, there would be no need for competition, nor would any other team bother to make a trade for Bosh unless they only wanted one post-season run out of him and the cost to them is low.
As long as that kind of interview doesn’t happen, teams will offer whatever they feel securing the rights to Bosh is worth. The main issue here (and this brings us back to the crux of the matter: competition) is how many teams are really in the running for Bosh? Most if not all teams would be willing to have him on their team; how many of those would Bosh actually want to re-sign with? This is the real deflater of his trade value. We’ll never get fair market value for him unless Boras starts a bidding war in the NBA.
Hey Phdsteve, the Raptors are currently in the playoffs…Dickhead
Hey assclown he never we weren’t in the playoffs… :)
He’s just stating the fact that given the current way we’re playing we’re probably heading towards a 7 or 8 spot, which will equal a first round exit, so really… where is the progress?
Progress will happen if Bosh stays and we build (in the long run) around him. That’s exactly how teams without a Kobe or LeBron advance in the playoffs (i.e. Detroit) – by staying together for a long amount of time. Hence the reason I miss AP being here lol.
“Progress will happen if Bosh stays and we build (in the long run) around him.”
So Toronto should have seven more years of mediocrity…
If you’re expecting a championship caliber team in a year or two, I think you’re being unrealistic.
No I don’t expect a championship team but I do expect it better than mediocrity.
We all do, there’s no doubt this team can do better.
ouch!
im sorry for calling you a dickhead…..i just dont appreciate this toronto pessimism…you guys are trying to predict the result of everything bad that “will” happen this season….thats not productive, your not a GM. your a fan you are supposed to cheer for your team.
what if we play orlando first round and Howard injures his knee? what if we play the celtics and the big 3 get swine flu?….
see the misuse of pessimistic predictions ?
should i write an article on that?
sure! I think that would be a great idea for an article. send it to me at phdsteve@gmail.com and I’ll put it up on the site next week.
and thanks for the apology. most people dont do that on the site- much appreciated.
I appreciate this site because for the most part there is an honest assessment of the state of the franchise (I dont detect an agenda)…while keeping the writeups fresh, witty and contrarian. And this on a daily basis. Dont know how long you have been following the team but there has been a lot of pain over the years….so the pessimism is not entirely without cause. Babcock was a so-called gm…you could probably have done better.
Doug Smith of the Star runs a syrupy blog that camouflages mostly …check it out.
to be honest I find some articles and comments to be fickle. And to assume a win total by the end of the season is like siting in rocking chair, you move a lot but don’t get anywhere.
First of all, I do NOT agree that the PG position is our biggest problem. We need a legitimate #1 SG more, and a 6th man that scares people. Secondly, Marco has messed up his opportunity here. He’s destined for Euroball when his contract runs out. Thirdly, Raptor fans would NEVER want McGrady back in a Raptor uniform. His exit was worse than Carter’s because he didn’t give the Raptor GM an opportunity to get something in return for him. Yes, it’s true the GM should’ve traded him by the trade deadline of his last year here, just as we should with Bosh this year: either sign on the dotted line, or we trade you to the best offer, period. Fourthly, Are you serious, + Haslem! And finally, the Knicks once acquired 3 first-round picks in one year, and it didn’t work. They drafted John Wallace, Walter McCarty & Dontae Jones, but went from a three year record of .695/.671/.573 before to .695/.524/.540 after. There was a one year improvement that didn’t last, and nobody seemed to try to use that strategy afterwards.
Didn’t the Raps get a first round draft pick for McGrady?
Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, No. He Walked. We Booed. And Booed. Then Booed Some More.
Actually, we did get a first round pick for him (McGrady was flipped to Orlando in a sign and trade). I’m not sure what happened to the pick after that — it was either protected, uneventful or flipped to someone else.
I did a similar exercise last September and concluded we would be about 500 by the end of January (need two against Detroit and we’re close). I thought it would take time for this roster and coaching staff to gel. When they’re bad, they’re worse than I expected, but the question is can they start to run closer to the big boys in 2010?
Time will tell.
I hope you are right! there is no denying that if they could “turn it around” this team would be competitive and lots of fun to watch. For me the big problem is that the team always has an excuse about why they are not winning games- and no track record of winning to point to- so guys like you and me can really feel good about the team moving forward. for example, I find the large number of 20 point losses really tough to swallow.
agreed.
The huge losses suck, but I think anyone who thought this team would be good right out of the gate was just kidding themselves. If there was a mandate that this team be over .500 in its first 30 games, then BC might as well have blown up the team in the last off-season.
Orlando and Atlanta were good teams last season and both of them added more pieces. The Raptors can’t be seen in the same light. They were horrible last season and while they added some pieces (Jack and Evans who hasn’t played), for the most part they just switched a bunch around (Humphries-Johnson, Parker-DeRozan, Kapono-Belinelli, Marion-Turkoglu, Moon-Weems, Graham-Wright, Voshkul-Nesterovic, etc.). Last year’s bunch at least had the benefit of playing together for a while.
Best case scenario, the team finds a way to play well together and we repeat our run from the year we won the division. The realistic expectation, however, is that this is a .500 team. When you look at the roster changes, it makes sense. While Jack and Johnson are better than last year’s pieces (Evans is a TBD), can you really say the same about Turk, Belinelli, DeRozan, Weems and Wright? This team is no more than last year’s horrible mess with a better PG tandem.
thats huge
Totally agree (have made similar points numerous times on this sight. DeRozan, and to a lesser extext, Weems are the wild cards as they have the potential to get much better which in turn would elevate the team.
I think that sometime no later than after the all-star break DeRozan will step it up even more. How much? We will see
Weems can provide 10 – 15 a night off of the bench.
There is no way that this roster as constructed is a top 4 team in the EC. Boston, Orlando, Cleveland and Atlanta are
Overall 82 – 27 .752
vs EC 51 – 18 .739
vs WC 31 – 09 .775
Based on the fact that Boston, Orlando, Cleveland, and Atlanta have a better winning record against the WC than they do against the EC I would rank the top 6 teams in league thus
1. Lakers
2. Boston
3. Orlando
4. Cleveland
5. Atlanta
6. Dallas
I think that one could argue Boston vs Lakers for #1.
The bottom line is that four out of five of the best teams in the league are in the EC. The Raptors are just not in that league. I don’t care if you change coaches, bring in a sixth man that can score or whatever. They just don’t have the personnel to compete with the top five.
However, I think that they win at least 41 games and make the playoffs most likely as either the 6th or 7th seed. Even if they were good enough to win 50 which I think is beyond what this group with its overall level of experience and talent can expect, they would still most likely get knocked in the first round.
The season is what it is. Enjoy it, watch the guys grow and savior the special moments along the way.
That is my opinion.
Compete with top five should have been compete with top four in the EC.
I TOTALLY AGREE!
“Enjoy it, watch the guys grow and savior the special moments along the way.”
I think this documentary helps Raptors fans remember how far we’ve come:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAr_QKKWGGY
Hey PhDSteve, let me ask you something.
IF (hypothetically) Chris Bosh DOES decide to stay in Toronto after this year, despite getting his ass kicked in the 1st round of the playoffs, and finishing with a mediocre 40-45 win record, if that actually happens to occur because the Raptors “get lucky” and win a few of those games you’ve crossed off on the calendar:
Does that not change everything for you?
Imagine, simply the potential of having a 26 year old player entering the prime of his career, currently leading the league in double-doubles and rebounds, one of the most talented scoring threats, and one of the best (if not the best) up and coming Power Forward(s) and arguably one of the top 10-15 players in the NBA… imagine that in a Raptors uniform for the long haul.
That’s the reality. And the reality is (despite how much the media and broadcasters try to make us think otherwise) we live in Canada. The Raptors are the only team not in the States, so there’s really only a handful of players that LIKE playing here… Bosh is one of them. That’s something to factor into the equation.
Colangelo is striving to keep him, the fans are eagerly hoping as each game passes by that he’ll stay.
You’re plotting his exit. And as a succession plan to that you’re visualizing the GM turning a playoff caliber team to confetti.
Wanna know what they call people too afraid to believe?
Cowards.
I’m with Colangelo, Triano, and all the fans out there who believe that there’s still a POSSIBILITY of keeping CB4 here in Toronto. So long as that possibility exists, I think it’s worth chasing. So let’s fight the seemingly negative odds and keep some hope. There’s still 52 games left in this season.
P.S. I know you’re just trying to be realistic, but I just had to vent about all the CB4 trade talk I’ve been reading about in other forums/articles around the web.
Sorry if that came off as harsh lol
Breath of fresh air. Despite not being a Top 4 team, I also believe there is a lot of upside with this squad.
lol. no worries. if you listen to some of my podcasts this year, you’ll hear me say – more than once- that the Raps would be crazy to trade bosh this year. and I totally agree about building around him.
It’s Toronto.
Negativity and inferiority complexes are required for citizenship!
Good post though and lets hope that we do retain him.
Chris Bosh is not leading the league in rebounds. He’s about 5th, last I checked. Just thought I’d throw that in there.
“Colangelo is striving to keep him, the fans are eagerly hoping as each game passes by that he’ll stay.”
The fan base in Toronto for Chris Bosh is getting smaller as the season progresses. I even heard chants at ACC such as “Yes to wins no to Stats” As has been mentioned repeatedly on many websites and blogs is that you cannot build around Chris Bosh. He is the best player we have but he is more of a “second banana” for a franchise player. If we are to get a “true” franchise player (highly unlikely), then keeping Chris Bosh is the best solution. But trying to build around him will produce mediocre teams. This has been an exercise in futility and we need a change in Toronto.
I think another way to put it is CB4 and Pau Gasol are the same type of player both in what they do on the court and both of them being great second bananas.
is this who I think it is???lol
the moment i hear ’second bannnnnannnnna’ I already have a feeling i’ve heard the same tired argument before from the same source.
what’s a second bannnnnnannnnna? Is Melo one? Is Howard one of those? What about Pierce? Is he a secondary piece of fruit?
As for the chants you heard at the ACC not only is the crowd too dead to even begin to chant something like that but I have a feeling you were the band leader of this one man chant.
Hey timetomoveon,
There’s either 1 of 2 things going on here:
a) This forum (as well as the many Raptors fans that you alluded to) truly overlook Chris Bosh’s abilities.
b) This forum and those fans that think CB4 is not a “true franchise player” simply do not realize how RARE and how GREAT guys like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant are.
I’ll tell you what, I think it’s more b) than it is a)
You briefly touched on it when you said it’s “highly unlikely” that we’ll ever get a superstar of that caliber – and that’s correct, it’s also highly unlikely for almost ANY team to get those kinds of guys.
I just think you’re misclassifying them, and labeling them as “franchise players” when really, they should be called LEGENDS. Because that’s how Kobe and LeBron will go down, as some of the greatest players of ALL TIME.
Tim Duncan – people already refer to him as the greatest Power Forward of all time.
So I think comparing Chris Bosh to those kinds of players is holding him to an unreasonable measuring stick. It’s also unreasonable to assume that Chris Bosh is all about his stats – if you’ve ever played basketball before you can spot a ball hog when you see one – and I can firmly say CB4 is NOT selfish.
I do hold our franchise player to the highest standard, and they are the first player I point towards if things are not going right. But I also have a vivid memory, and I can look back in NBA history and say that not too many guy could put up Bosh’s numbers (seriously, do some research, you’ll see).
Remember what it was like having a guy like Carter not try near the end of his tenure here? That aint Bosh, so let’s treat him with the respect that he deserves. At this point – that would be our support.
That’s the least we can do for a guy who’s done what CB4 has done for this franchise.
Well put…
decent argument + you have swayed and changed my understanding of what a “franchise” player is.
I agree that not a lot of teams are going to have a Kobe, or a Dwight.
great response!
The only two so called pseudo franchise players to have websites to encourage fans to vote for them for the All-Star game was Bosh and Amare. All the real superstars in the league did not want to go such a low level. Only selfish self-conceited players go that low to try to be “THE MAN”.
Both of them are the perfect second bananas for a team. Bosh can score and rebound but has no leadership skills and cares about stats more important than team success.
The experiment has failed in Toronto with Chris Bosh. Time to move on.
Lol, trade the secondary bannnnnannnnnna, for a few tertiary orannnnnnges.lol
By the way what about the year’s he wasn’t voted in by the fans and was still selected? Was it the rest of the fruit kingdon supporting one of their own??
Not sure what ‘experiment’ you are referring to but at least you are consistently one dimensional.
So now instead of trying to put cross a logical argument, you choose to ridicule the commentator. Just because lot of people don’t agree that Chris Bosh is not a franchise player, you don’t have to put them down in a crude and demeaning way.
The chant at the ACC was real and no I was not part of the group. I am sure the chant ” YES to wins, NO to stats” will get more frequent and louder with time.
Don’t be upset. I apologize for hurting your feelings.
I don’t care if people don’t agree with my opinion and neither should you.
And what was I arguing? You’re the one making bold claims not I, and I am responding to your assesment and the Randolph comparisons that you seem to think are sound. I don’t need to provide an argument to you that is satisfying to you, cause no matter what I say you are steadfast in your opinion, which is cool.
Your or my opinion really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.
It’s what BC and MLSE think and thats all that counts.
I just think that trading away your most talented player is foolhardy, particularly when you most likely won’t get back anywhere near equal value. Your opinion is that he’s a second bannnnannnna.
I don’t feel that a 25 year old big man that improves his game every year and doesn’t have half the supporting cast that other bannnnannnnas have on their roster, is someone you can label and define immediately.
@boshisnoleader
i think you’re off base both in your comments, and your reply to sleepz. He wasn’t ridiculing you; he was ridiculing your posts which tend to the same, ill-logic and deprecating point of view.
with bosh, it’s not an “experiment” for a franchise to invest and work on his development and grow the team as he grows as a player and a person. your statement is actually plain silly and illiterate. Eg, “self-conceited” is redundant/gramatially incorrect.
anyway, i think if you really want to make pejorative statements about the motivations of players, you ought to at least provide some first hand knowledge. eg, interview the player, or provide quotes from sources close to the player.
but i suspect you’re just trolling here.
with bosh, it’s not an “experiment” for a franchise to invest and work on his development and grow the team as he grows as a player and a person. your statement is actually plain silly and illiterate. Eg, “self-conceited” is redundant/gramatially incorrect.
anyway, i think if you really want to make pejorative statements about the motivations of players, you ought to at least provide some first hand knowledge. eg, interview the player, or provide quotes from sources close to the player
That was worded much better than I could have ever phrased it and dead on in my opinion!
Chris Bosh was upset at the start of the season why his name was always conveniently left out when they mentioned the top players of the 2003 draft such as Wade and Lebron. Your stud “THE MAN” considers himself to be equal to Wade and Lebron.
You must reword your answer and compare “THE MAN” with the real franchise players such as Wade and Lebron.
I am sure a lot of the fan base would be interested in you analysis and comparison.
Once again this is your assessment.
How do you know what he considers himself to be?
Like a previous poster so eloquently put to you is that you are comparing him or trying to hold him to the standard of legends.
No one is comparing him to those guys in this argument but you.
Your opinion is biased and rarely takes any objectivity into account, but it’s cool, do your thing man!
What Chris Bosh said was that he was mad he wasn’t considered in that class. What he proceeded to do was work towards getting his name in that class. He’s never said he considers himself their equals, but rather that he wants to get to a point where people will do so. So your arguement is completely flawed.
Lebron isn’t a legend yet. I shouldn’t need to remind anyone that he has yet to get his FIRST ring, much less multiple rings.
I love how everyone everywhere assumes that Lebron is going to win a championship just because of how great of a player he is. It takes more than one man to win it all. Even with a washed up Most Dominant Ever.
Nobody assumed it, but if he simply continues his current statistical averages, he WILL go down as one of the top 50 players of all time. Probably even top 25. A lot of the NBA’s GREATEST players never won a championship (Stockton, Malone, Havlichek, Thomas, Barkley, Mikan, Miller, Ewing, Nash, West, Baylor, Wilkins, Barry… you get the point – it’s a long long list lol)
it is plausible that he will be considered the greatest player ever when he is done ….
I totally understand and agree with your point (though Havlicek and Rick Barry did win championships)
Oh whoops! lol thanks
Absolutely
Fans of all sports constantly let nostalgia cloud their judgement when it comes to rating all-time players and end up ranking players based on how they dominated their opponants instead of imagining what it would be like if they played against today’s competition. News flash – Today’s Lebron (not even in his prime yet) could beat any other SF in the history of the NBA in a best-of-10 1-on-1 or by any other metric. Chris Bosh could *probably* beat any 80’s or prior big-man, and Dirk could school Larry Bird. Chris Paul could kill Oscar Robertson/Stockton etc. People underestimate how much the talent in professional sports improves exponentially over the years… Those guys had killer insticts and confidence, but only because they were the cream of the crop in their respective era’s – Most of those guys wouldnt be starters if they had to play now, and 20 years from now the competition will likely improve so much that the exact same statement would apply to our current superstars.
I can’t agree more.
Well said!
Amen
You do not know what Colangelo is really thinking. Its not very wise to watch the man in interviews and take at face value his pronouncements (depending on how one parses his statements) that he wants to sign Bosh. He has to keep Bosh (agent) and many other gms second guessing what his real intentions are …and yes the fan base here as well including the rest of the team (re: their motivation playing thru the season). Even when the dust settles (re: Bosh’s status with the team going forward) we, the fan base, will get the incomplete and sanitized story about how and what really went down.
I don’t understand the not like playing here?
The only reason that players might not want to play in Toronto as far as I can see is the weather and you can make that argument for cities like Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland Minn and maybe even Boston.
As far as the city itself goes Toronto ranks among the top five of all cities in the NBA. At least it used to when I last visited it a number of years ago.
Nothing’s changed – TDot’s as awesome as it’s ever been. Think it’s just the crap about it being in another country.
This will give you and idea of how old I am. (age is a state of the mind and unfortunately body.) LOL
One thing that has changed is Yorkville for any other posters here who remember hearing Joni Mitchell, Gordon Lightfoot etc singing away into the wee hours of the A.M.
Players love Toronto and are very vocal about it in the media. I think you could see some surprises next year in terms of bolstering our roster. Whether or not we can secure CB, I guarantee you will see some top notch players making their way north of the border. This year is about building the foundation of our team going forward. Looking at Hedo, Bargs, Weems, DeRo, Jack, and Amir, we have a lot of talent that given a few years could make something special happen in the playoffs.
Anyone think the Raps will try and take a run at Krypto-Nate? Possibly in a trade involving Calderon (his undefined injury reminds me of last year when JO was put on the shelf due to an “injury” that was actually him working out for Miami). I know he is on a 1 yr deal right now so not sure of the contractual logistics of what we could offer.
PUNJABIIIIII!!!!!
punjabi. that is all.
I’m gonna send an email to EA Sports requesting they incorporate that into NBA Live 2011
if only Matt Devlin knew the ripple effects of his words hahaha
PUNJABI, brother! :)
That, and the taxes.
…and border crossings.
I am from a warm country and I can see why some people would hate the cold (cold = anything below 20 Celsius) But if i had NBA skills I would want to play there because it is not America, anyway for 20 million I would live in Antarctica.
Usually when I read RR posts, I agree with almost everything and there’s like one thing that doesn’t work for me. This is the opposite: everything in the post is moronic except the idea that it will be tough for the Raptors to break .500.
Let me just say that option #4: do nothing, is FAR preferable to the 3 lame and/or disastrous suggestions preceding it.
+1
If we make to the playoffs….we lost our 1st round pick to the miami…
Why rebuild something that has potential…Andrea Bargnani traded to the Miami, is that a waste of a 2006 #1 draft pick. If Bosh is gone, and turk and calderon is gone… guess what… we have no talent in the roster…
I rather stick to what we have, and just fix minor adjustment.
One minor comment.
The pick would not be lost but just conveyed over until 2011 and so forth until I believe 2013 or 2014. Which means that the pick is only lost if the Raptors make the playoffs in each of the next 4 or 5 years.
No, that’s wrong. If the Raps make the playoffs this year, the pick is gone for next year. If they don’t, the same applies next year, the year after, etc.
I think he meant we would lose our pick to Miami, as in they would get it and we wouldn’t.
And the traded pick works this way: the Raptors owe Miami this year’s draft pick.
If the Raps make the playoffs, the pick goes to Miami, and the deal is complete (ie all future Raps picks belong to the Raps).
If the Raps fail to make the playoffs, they instead keep the pick this year, and the traded pick becomes next year’s pick.
The same playoff conditions apply to next year, and so on an so forth until either a) the Raps make the playoffs and trade the pick or b) the fifth year of the arrangement is reached and the pick goes to Miami regardless of Toronto’s positioning.
And as an added encouragement to make the playoffs this year – there was a condition in that trade that if the Raptors failed to make the playoffs in 09/10 Miami would get the next none-lottery 1st round draft pick from the Raptors AND THEIR SECOND ROUNDER. Minor but noticeable enough to mention…
I agree with u, Bargs for Haslem and a pick is a stupid idea, I don’t even care if they throw Beasley in the mix. Bargs is a great player who loves the city and WANTS to be here. He could have easily rode his rookie contract out and signed somewhere else for an equal contract that BC gave him.
I don’t trust Beasley as a player. The problems that he has had since signing with the Heat are unfortunately to susceptible to relapse.
Moving is one of the big stress events in one’s life. Any team that might acquire Beasley from the Heat especially at this point while he is still young and so close in time to his problems would be taking a great risk that he would relapse and possibly during the season.
I agree totally. I like that we have a growing core of talent that chose to sign here or sign extensions (Bargs, Caldy, Turk). I can’t see Beasley’s off court activities having a beneficial influence on our other young players like DeRo, Weems, Amir, etc.
“easily rode his rookie contract out and signed somewhere else for an equal contract that BC gave him”.
I don’t see him playing anywhere Maurizio Gherardini isn’t.
“Besides, you can’t be much worse without Bosh. Really.”
Are you sure taking 24/11 out of this line up doesn’t make us worse. Taking the only guy who gets doubled out of the line up doesn’t make us worse.
You’re proof that book smarts (I assume you have a PHD) has nothing to do with leadership and decision making. Sometimes you have to trust the decisions you’ve made and take a stand.
Using your argument, why don’t we get Zach Randolph from the Memphis Grizzlies. He has an average of 19.1 points and 10.7 rebounds this year (last game against Denver he had 32 points and 24 rebounds- 9 offensive). He has 15 double doubles this year and decent PER of 21.07. He plays terrible interior defense like Bosh.
The question you should be asking is if we had Zach Randolph, would our record be any different than it is at this time. If the answer is no, then we can basically find out the “true” value” of Chris Bosh (minus the stats) to the overall achievement of the team and its success. Does Chris Bosh make this a better team?
So far the answer is no.
You’re logic and arguments are all hearsay and ficticous and Randolph doesn’t play here so whatever assumptions you make are all entirely unfounded.
Always bringing up Randolph yet ask any GM about this comparison and they would say it’s not a good one. Has Zach even made an all-star team yet?
Let’s get some fresher critiques going here, cause this same argument and comparison day after day is whack.
Three things which I don’t believe are hearsay that I can say about Randolph having watched him play last year for the Clippers
1. He is not a max contract player in any way whatsoever. He is not even close.
2. He was overweight and slow and it negatively impacted his defensive abilities to where he was neutral at best. This year he lost weight and got into better shape and is now quicker than he has been.
3. He holds the ball way to much on offense. Yes he gets his points but at the expense of reducing the movement in the offense. I can’t begin to tell you how many close games the Clippers lost last year because their offense went stagnant in the 4th quarter as a result of Randolph holding the ball way too long.
“The question you should be asking is if we had Zach Randolph (instead of Chris Bosh) would our record be any different than it is at this time.”
You did not answer the above question.
Remember the Memphis Grizzlies have a better record than us and they play in the West. They have defeated Dallas, Cleveland, Denver and came close to beating Boston. The Raptors with Chris Bosh have been only good at beating below .500 teams.
Randolph was with the Clippers last year and they won a grand total of 19 games. They are more than half way there already and Randolphs, replacement Blake Griffin has yet to suit up.
The Griz have a number of very good players and have had an easier schedule so far.
Without Mayo, Gay and Gasol who are arguably as good as the Raptors best three players or at least close to it the Griz would be 19 win team just like the Clippers were last year.
So what you are equating is that Mayo, Gay and Gasol are as good as the raptor best three players. The difference therefore from your reasoning is between Zach Randolph and Chris Bosh since the other three are equal. From your deduction, therefore Zach Randolph is better than Chris Bosh because they have better record.
No.
Bosh is in the Raptors best three.
Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu.
Does Randolph equate to Calderon? Probably.
Do you think with Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitiski and Pau Gasol that Chris Bosh would be on the All-Star team.
Please note I am not a Zach Randolph supporter but just using him as an example.
Duncan has been classified as a centre for all-star purposes on occasion. Nowitzki is a former MVP.
He is better than Gasol and would get the nod over him however with the Lakers record there will be 2 or 3 Lakers on that team, so it’s hard to determine that.
What’s your point?
Someone mentioned that Zach Randolph has not been selected on the All-Star team. He has to compete against Pau, Dirk and Duncan. If Bosh had to compete against them, would he have made all those All-Star appearances. After all Bosh does play in the weak Eastern Conference.
I think there is flaw in your argument.
I agree with most people that…
1. Chris Bosh is the best raptor player at this time.
2. He will score and get rebounds — 20/10 in an efficient manner.
What Chris Bosh lacks…
1. Poor Leadership skills
2. Rarely able to deliver in the clutch, that’s why we brought in Hedo
3. Terrible Interior defender.
4. Offensive flow stagnates when he becomes focal point in offense.
5. Choked in the playoffs.
Since Bosh does not bring any other tangibles than scoring and rebounds, can he be easily replaced with another player that also excels in scoring and rebounding. Does that player command a max contract? Will our record be any better or worse than it is now.
Maybe then we can really find the “TRUE” value of Chris Bosh when it comes to team success.
Your points are all your opinion and by no means makes them accurate or correct for that matter.
I’m not going to even bother refuting your claims.
I would like some references or statistic or even media clipping that suggests Bosh is even a below average defender. Did you miss that whole redeem team USA thing where he was their #1 big (ahead of Dwight, Boozer etc) BECAUSE OF HIS OUTSTANDING DEFENSE? I absolutely agree that he’s hardly showed that he’s consistantly a good to great defender since Vince left and he became a 20/10 guy in this league…
Oh wait – I just had an epiphany… Maybe Bosh can only do so much by himself? Maybe he’s just not a Lebron/Jordan/Magic type of 40mpg stat stuffer who can keep rivalling Nowitzki on the Offensive end while also being a Garnett-quality defender all at once? Maybe the man has limits? What a pussy, eh?
Didn’t you know……he’s not allowed to have limits in Toronto.
Not only must he play like Wade, and Lebron he must also somehow find a way to miraculously morph into them via his facial features like in Terminator 2.
He must also inspire and make his teammates infintely better than their natural talent permits, and he must also faithfully watch all Maple Leaf home games on Rap’s days off without exception.
1) second and third bullet and 4) are rationale options. 2) and 3) are, quite frankly, the running around like a chicken-with-your-head-off option.
This is a gutsy post because of the timing that it was published, so kudos to you. You could have waited until our next 3-5 game losing streak, but you posted it fresh of 2 wins. With 2 straight win, you know that there’s going to be a fair amount of Raptor apologists out there thinking those two wins were a sign of good things to come. Of course, if you’ve been paying any attention the past 2 years, you would know that this is simply not the case.
30 games in and we’ve won exactly 4 games against teams with a winning record. And the fact is you will continue to run into fans who think this is actually a good team who is just playing badly. They need to gel. Or they need to wait and see what Reggie Evans can do. He’ll bring the missing toughness, they’ll say. Or they need to trust eachother. Or they need another speech from Alvin Williams. We’re not a good team. Period.
In terms of whether or not Chris Bosh will stay, is really something we cannot predict. Even if we won just 30 games, it’s probably going to decrease the chances of Bosh staying but you just never know. Look at Mats Sundin. Look at Doc Halladay. Some marquee players defy logic and stay loyal for as long as they can, and I think it’s quite possible that Chris Bosh is that type of person. From the way that he conducts his personal and professional life, he does strike me as a down-to-earth type of guy who just *might* stick around no matter how bad this team is.
This team was bludgeoned into submission by the worst schedule in the league. I’m not being an apologist…careful throwing around the labels. I’m being a staunch realist with patience. Unless we factor in everything, we’re just being reactive. Let’s leave that to the neurotic leafs fans shall we?
And what the Raptors have done for the last few years is about as relevant as what the leafs have done for the last few years. This is a completely different team.
I don’t think we are a good team. But I think we will be, I guess that’s the difference. (I wrote a post on it below)
Someone posted this: “your a fan you are supposed to cheer for your team”, earlier. Just scroll up and look for it. And that was after I posted my comment. These are the fans I’m talking about.
PHD,
One thing that bodes well going forward for the rest of the season is that we will hopefully see a much different lineup than what we had at the beginning of the year:
1) Weems vs Wright – now that Weems has lost the Hump syndrome of forcing shots, he looks great out there. That makes Wright nothing but an expiring asset. I couldn’t fucking stand seeing Wright on the floor forcing terrible offense with better players standing around holding their dicks.
2) Young Guns – The more burn these guys get the better. All three are playing great and have upside. Hopefully we’re just scratching the surface of what they can bring.
3) Hedo – Jay finally seems to be letting Hedo do what he does. The new pick & roll he’s doing with Bosh should have been put into the playbook from Game 1. Should be dong it with Bargs too.
4) Bargs – seems to be buying into D and rebounding. I’d much rather see Bargs get 12 points,10 good boards, and better help D than him getting 20 pts/game.
Is it inconceivable to think the group going forward will do better than they did to begin the year? I don’t think so. They’re still not in the same league as the big 4, but not as far away as they’ve looked so far.
Agree with everything and what I love about the young guns is that they’re getting off on coming in to the game when the starters aren’t bringing it and showing them up. If I was Jay, I would start a friendly rivalry between the starters and the bench.
I don’t believe that Bosh is “the” problem or “a” problem.
The problem is the salary structure, given the spending limitations, of the whole team.
The Pistons won in 2004 with no max player or even close to a max player contract wise.
The only way you win with a max contract player in the NBA is if you are willing like the Lakers and Celtics to pay a ton of luxury tax.
The Spurs are the one exception. They have won with Duncan, a max contract guy and without going significantly into the luxury tax. This year however they are in big time but will not win.
However, Duncan is arguably the greatest PF to have ever played professional basketball in any country and league so he is the exception that makes the rule.
The Heat may have been the other exception. I don’t recall what their salary structure was the year they won with Shaq and Wade.
You just said you didn’t think Bosh was a/the problem, and then alluded to the salary structure and cited examples of teams who had max contract players. Like it or not, Chris Bosh will be a max contract player. (ie: Chris Bosh is a/the problem)
I think we are splitting hairs here.
I don’t think that he is problem because he took the money that was offered him at the time. Some could argue that he should have taken less when he last signed, but I am not so convinced of that.
I do agree that if he insists on a max contract going forward that he will then become a problem.
Bosh will get a max contract. I have no doubt in my mind he will get a max contract. 30% of salary cap this year might come out to around a starting salary of $17M.
In history I’m sure you’ve seen some players get crazy contracts that didn’t necessarily deserve it. I think Bosh is more worthy of making $17M than some of these guys:
Allan Houston, Chris Webber, Stephon Marbury, Jermaine O’Neal, Jason Kidd (the 2007 version), Michael Finley, Tracy McGrady (the 2008 version), Shawn Marion.
I believe the only team Bosh would be a max. contract player would be TO (if BC chose to sign him). The teams currently vying for him (and where he would choose to go with) would be one with at least an equally paid player (if not more)…Lebron, Wade, Nowitzki. This primarily because we have the hammer on the most dollars to be offered. Do you actually see him getting paid more than the others I mentioned?
The team currently constructed is not going anywhere…way too many inconsistant players on the roster. Triano has been doing well in getting the most out of scrubs like Weems, Johnson and even now Banks. But he needs to get the most out of everyplayer (looking at you Turkoglu). Against week teams we look great, against strong teams we look medicore. Bosh is playing like a player is supposed to play in a contract year, but he is not making the team around him any better. The GM is not going anywere and neither is the coach, best thing to do is let Bosh walk at the end..we are not going to get anything of great value by trading Bosh this season, so might as well make a push for a low seed playoff birth.
I think it is an insult to young players with a lot of talent only lacking experience to become solid NBA players to call the Young Guns scrubs.
On any other team Johnson, Weems and Banks would be scurbs..on there last teams they sure where.
Yeah, cause no player has ever improved over the course of their career.
From RealGM
———————————-
2010 first round draft pick to Miami
Toronto’s own 2010 1st round pick to Miami (top 14 protected in the 2010 Draft, top 14 protected in 2011, top 14 protected in 2012, top 14 protected in 2013, top 14 protected in 2014 and unprotected in the 2015 Draft). Additionally, if Toronto does not convey their own 1st round pick to Miami in 2010, they shall convey their own 2010 second round pick to Miami. [Miami - Toronto, 2/13/2009]
http://www.realgm.com/src_future_draftpicks.php
Sorry if I wasn’t clear
The Young Guns do not include Banks, they include DeRozan.
Okay if you want to define scrubs based on what a player has accomplished in his career fine, but what they would do on other teams would depend on whom they are playing for and the situation during the year.
Johnson would be a valuable rotation player on many teams. Every team should have a highly effective garbage man at the 4 spot. He’s probably a better player than Humphries and they love him down in Dallas.
Johnson’s play has earned him more minutes than Bargnani, that’s for damn sure.
I think Bargs has been by all accounts pretty damn good this season… Johnson has been a pleasant surprise (see: Moon, Jamario) but he’s a step down from either of our starting bigs. Love the effort though…
Bargs and Johnson each have their strengths and weaknesses. Bargs scores well but doesn’t defend or rebound. Johnson defends and rebounds but lacks size and bulk. He’s too lanky and short to play center, especially alongside Bosh. Johnson also fouls constantly. He frequently fouls himself onto the bench.
The fact that Bargs isn’t doing the things that the position he plays demands is a big problem for the Raps.
Absolutely 100% agree on the last statement.
Who wants to find the person who made the schedule and egg his house? C’mon, leave a bag of burning crap so he has to stamp it out.
Our team played more games than any other team. More away games. More back to back and more games against above five hundred teams. While they had no clue who they were. Basically before they’d spent enough time with each other to figure out where they like to eat much less where they like the ball in the million and one game situations that they might find themselves in.
Now, they have time to practice. Now they have time to prepare for teams and wait for them to come off back to backs the way the premium teams in the league have been able to wait for us over and over again.
Triano can instill an effective mix up of zone defenses with man to man coverage (he better).
Anybody crying for anything to happen to this team before they get through January, needs to be gently medicated and sat back in a chair.
Anybody who thought that they’d have a better record than this by now needs to put at least one foot back in the real world.
The key is, do these guys know that they were the victims of extraordinary circumstances and can they get hungry again? A teams ego once damaged can be terminally lost. How resilient are these guys?
I think the real test of Triano as a coach is now. Can he rally them now that they have a chance to dig in and really find out who they are and what they are capable of?
We need to win the next 3…and we need to show well against a couple of the elite teams in that short run at the beginning of January. If they can do that, then we’re back on track…if not, then maybe the team looks at other scenarios.
+1000
Why is it that we have to lose the next 3 games to convince you that the team needs to look at other scenarios? Do the next 3 games mean more than the past 30?
Optimism is great, and I’m all for it — but it needs to be justified. In an earlier comment you said you didn’t want to be lumped in with “neurotic leafs fans”. And yet after 30 games, you want to see what will happen in the next 3 instead of just looking at the last 30. That is exactly what most “neurotic” fans would do.
The next 3 games are against two teams with losing records. So far we’ve played 16 games against teams with winning records, 14 against losing records. We’ve won 4 against winning teams and 9 against losing teams. This gives us a 0.250 winning percentage against good teams, and 0.642 against bad teams.
Understand this: If we took just 2 of the next 3 games, then nothing will have changed. Taking 2 of 3 (0.667) from losing teams is consistent with what we’ve done for the last 30 games (0.642). Winning 2 of the next 3 won’t mean that Triano has manage to “rally them”, or that they have found “out who they are”, or “what they are capable of”. All it will mean is they’ve played exactly the same as they have for the past 30 games.
I know you said we need to win the next THREE. I don’t see how winning 1 game out of the ordinary will make such a difference in the grand scheme of things.
Young Gunz + Euros + CB4 for lyfe!!!!
lmao
sorry, i had to.
+ punjabi!
A few points to make regarding the Raptor’s record:
1 They have played more games than any other team. This means that they have played more back-to-backs than any other team, had less off days, and had less practice days. With a team that has basically been completely rebuilt, the latter is important. phdsteve notes that they were 11-17 last year at the Christmas break. This year, they will be 13-18 or 14-17 so that is an extra three games. The flip side is that the Raptors will have more games with multiple days off between them in the second half. This alone should help them.
2 They have played the 9th toughest schedule (it was seventh before they played the Nets) (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi?season=2010&sortColumn=sos). You also have to remember to combine this with the fact they have played more games than anyone else too.
3 They have played 16 road games compared to 14 home and mediocre teams (and the Raptors definitely are) find it a lot tougher to win on the road. The slight road imbalance hasn’t helped their current record.
Do I think that this team will go far in the playoffs? No, not unless there is a drastic improvement in their defense, of which there hasn’t really been any signs of it occurring. Do I think that this team will have a record above 500 by the end of the season? Yes, I do. I think this team has enough talent to do that. The real question is whether they have the combativeness to do better than that.
“4. Stay as is
History has shown that this is Colangelo’s most likely course of action.”
I have a problem with that statement. The only time Colangelo didn’t make any major moves was after the 06-07 season (and we were coming off 47 wins, it was the right thing to do).
The first year he came; overhauled roster. After the 07-08 season? Overhauled roster. Also fired a coach during that season. And another overhaul before this season.
If anything, Colangelo has shown that he will not sit back and will try to make as many moves as possible to improve his team. Now whether you agree with his choices is another story, but the fact is we have one of the more active GM’s in the league.
good point! Colangelo has been very active during most off seasons since coming to Toronto. The point I was trying to make- and you are right it was not clearly stated- was that Colangelo doesnt like to make many moves during the season. he said himself- he would prefer a “wait and see approach” and to deal with things in the off season if possible. And this is ok, as long as we can hang around .500.
Bottom line:
Can this version of the Raptors squad beat one of:
Orlando
Boston
Cleveland
Atlanta
in the first round of the playoffs? No.
Is the stated goal not to make it to the second round? They cannot make it to the second round.
Therefore, what is the point of making it into the playoffs, even at the 5th seed, as they will lose to any of the above 4 teams?
Will this team, with time, and ‘gelling’ ever be good enough to beat 1 of those 4 teams? No. So, BC needs to look at tweaks, trades, coaching strategies, free agent maneuvering etc, in order to achieve the goal over a reasonable period of time, of building a better team.
Who cares if the record improves? Ya, we have had a tough schedule. But even if it were easier, could we have beaten Atlanta or Orlando when we played them? Do you think now, with an easier schedule, we can surprise Cleveland again? Do you think we can beat Boston? I am glad the Raptors can beat non-playoff or seeds 5-8 teams. But that will not help us in the playoffs.
Yes but there’s nobody in the East that competes with those four teams. Those teams are elite teams and then the rest shake out. That’s basketball. I’m sure if BC sees a way we get better he pulls the trigger…but we’ve only seen flashes of what these guys can do. I firmly believe that.
Last year we were a bottom feeder and this year we’re going to be better. Possibly a lot better.
Did we go from the worst team to the best?
No…
Are you going to have an ounce of realistic patience?
No
ok, except that we are currently on pace to win the exact same number of games as last year (+2). Is that really a significant improvement, especially given the amount of $ spent on upgrading the team?
Are we not taking the schedule in to account? Do you really not think the rest of the season is going to be different?
Yeah dude, there are way too many stories out there already pointing out the collosal schedule difficulty differences between what we’ve played and our remaining schedule.
You said:
“Are you going to have an ounce of realistic patience?
No”
Isn’t patience indicated here, in what I originally posted?:
“Will this team, with time, and ‘gelling’ ever be good enough to beat 1 of those 4 teams? No. So, BC needs to look at TWEAKS, trades, coaching strategies, free agent maneuvering etc, in order to achieve the goal over a REASONABLE period of time, of building a better team.” [EMPHASIS ADDED].
All I am saying is, do we think that this group of players is capable of ever challenging any of those teams in the near future? I am merely recommending that the Raptors organization embark on a reasonably long-term plan to get a team that CAN beat one of those 4 teams, or whoever else comes in to replace them as the ‘elite’ teams. Whatever it takes over time to one day be like those teams, real contenders, is what I want the organization to do. That is probably the most amount of patience that could be asked of any fan – ‘wait and see’ isn’t actually showing patience 30 games into a season.
All I am saying is that we need to do what needs to be done to get us to where those 4 teams are. Can we do that with this squad? If you think so, then great, stability is the only way to go – that is a wise course of action. If you do not see that as being the case, then why stand pat?
lots of good discussion here today (except for the guy who called me a %$^#^3head!).
What I find amazing is that as Raps fans, we ourselves are undecided which of the 4 options we would want to follow.
keep it coming!
1 Question, how long is Jose going to be injured?
If the Pistons don’t have Gordon and the other good starter, we will have a much greater chance of winning.
I like the fact that Triano is awarding minutes based on what occurs on the court and not what a player has or has not done before he come to the Raptors.
If the Young Guns stay with Toronto they will be a valuable part of the team going forward.
Woodson did this at Atlanta and it has paid off handsomely.
Jackson did it with Ariza who was considered a no-offense player before he came to the Lakers and in two years he has become a very good scorer and all around player.
Excellent post phdsteve. Clearly laid out the options. I get the sense though that Toronto fans still believe in the tweak or stay as is options. And the results of those options – exactly what we have now. If nothing changes, nothing changes. We have to get off of this mediocrity merry go round. That is Leafs fan thinking. “We’re just 1 or 2 players away.” Bullsh*t. The team as it is constructed, with Bosh as the leader, will never be more than a .500 or so first round fodder team. Time to re-load. And this is not about blaming Bosh. He has been a solid player, but the results are what they are.
If Bosh leaves is there anyone currently on the Raptors roster who has drive and ability to become the team leader or do the Raptors have to go out and get someone who can be that leader?
I am quoting a PG who later on in life went on to become a huge success because
“As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
Win they did, thee state championship.
Reload? You know what that means?
It means that you trade as many players as possible for draft picks. You then suck like the Nets for a couple of years until you luck out and get a special player. You then suck for another couple of years while your rebuild around your special player. Then comes the lucky bit. You manage to convince your special player to resign even though you’ve had a sucky team for years. At that point, you might play well for a season or two but get blown out in the playoffs. After that, you might be able to contend for a championship. Or you might not.
That’s how you reload. Or you can stay the course and see what happens with this group over the next year or two. This group might truly be only 1 or 2 players away. If it doesn’t work, you can always go back to reloading.
Good work Phdsteve,
I like your writing style, and your propensity for engaging commentors in discussion is refreshing.
As for the options you put forth, #’s 1 and 4 seem the most likely. #2 will not happen, as the best return for Bosh will be in the S&T route, when teams will be more willing to trade for him knowing they’ve got him for the next 6 years. #3 is the kind of spine-tingeling move that would be so ballsy that no organization would ever do. It would be incredible to watch all these long-term deals go out and all these first round draft picks come in, but then the fans would have to watch all these rookies acclimate to the NBA at the same time, not to mention they would all be due for extensions at the same time. That’s if the Raptors kept all of the picks of course.
With all due respect PHD, there is no way any of your proposed trades would ever happen under the ‘blow it up option’. While I understand the spirit of the point being to trade away our long term commitments for expiring contracts, I find your actual examples a bit worrying. Also, no team in general would want Bargnani’s, or Turk’s contract for an expiring contract because in that case, an expiring contract is more valuable.
1. Turkoglu, Calderon, and Banks to Houston for McGrady and a #1
There is no way that Houston does that. Currently, Houston is well positioned to offer a max free agent a contract either in the 2010 offeseason or the 2011 offseason and they are not going to sacrifice their cap space on Turk, Calderon and Banks. That does not make them an elite team, but a max free agent can.
For further info check out what me and Dave discussed over at his site (in the comments section):
http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/2009/12/12/2010-cap-space-houston/#comments
Bosh to Utah for Boozer and a #1
Utah is already in salary cap hell and will not want to resign Bosh with all of their salary commitments. I don’t think a half year of Bosh would be worth a first rounder + Boozer contributions because I still think their talent will not propel them over LA Lakers, Boston etc. for the championship. Finally, it would take Bosh a while to learn the offense and defense sets, why would they want that when they have a person who knows the sets well in Boozer?
Bargnani to Miami for Haslem and a #1
As unlikely as the first two are, there is absolutely no chance Miami would do this. Miami has the potential to add two max free agents this winter and they are NOT going to sacrifice the space for the burden of a contract that is Bargnani. Miami did not just sacrifice the last two years to obtain someone of such poor quality when they potentially could tout a Wade/Lebron or Wade/Bosh lineup next year. No chance.
Similar to other fans, I want to see the raps tear it up and reach the 5th seed status. However, we have gone thru a major rebuild and have 2 injuries. We need to be patient and hope that the team gels and improves.
Look at Atlanta. They’ve been building year by year and getting better. I think that’s the route MLSE is most interested in, so we need to add building blocks to this team.
What do we need? keep bosh or some other all star. Add more grittiness and defence. If we just improve on defence alone, we should squeeze a few more wins. The blowing up scenario is drastic and hasn’t been successful as far as I can tell.
Defense can be broken down between individual and team.
You can have a very good team defense without having great one on one defenders though it certainly helps. Building a very good defensive team without super defensive players takes time especially when you have young players in your rotation.
As to the Raptors potential on defense we have already had a glimpse of what 2 out the 3 Young Guns bring and they will only get better with more experience.
As to DeRozan, I think it might be good to know or remember that DeRozan never played man to man defense in high school. His coach used a zone. Even at USC defense was not the #1 thing though T. Gibson was a very good college defender.
So DeRozan is kind of new to this defensive thing in hoops. Give him time and I believe he will develop into an above average all around NBA player.
Didn’t Zach Randolph play for the New York Knicks? He had is chance to play great and make the all star team for the east. What happened there?
Why does so many people think getting rid of Bosh is the answer for this team? Every team that wins championships these days has a dominant big man (ie. Gasol, Duncan, Shaq, Garnett) and an excellent backcourt player (ie. Kobe, Parker/Ginobli, Wade, Pierce).
So if that seems to be the formula for winning, then why shouldn’t we keep Bosh? He’s already a proven front court nightmare. He needs a back court player (could be DeRozan, not yet though) to play with to take a little pressure off once in a while.
Bargnani is going unscathed through these posts and I don’t know why. Sure he has his games where he puts up good numbers, but there’s times where he brings nothing at all. He doesn’t bring much D to the table either.
We should try shipping off Bargnani in a package to a team like the Warriors for someone like Monta Ellis. I don’t know how much he makes, but I think a player like him would be a good fit.
P.S. I’m not comparing Ellis to any of the aforementioned players, he’s just a young exciting player.
Just thinking about it, Biedrins and Ellis for Bargs, DeRozan and someone else. Maybe a draft pick. We need some defense out of our Center and at least Biedrins is a rebounder that can block some shots. We can get O from our other players.
Is this edition of the Raptors not a “development” team with 3 proven veterans (Jose, Hedo, Bargs) and one over-developed all-star (Bosh) who fully intends to test the FA market in 2010?
Seems like the Raps are a mish-mash of talent that may never jell as a truly contending team. What is also strange about this season is the difference in talent levels between the top few teams and the rest of the league … it’s almost as if it’s a three-tiered league with A, B and C divisions.
We all know that the top 4 A-level teams within each conference will most likely fight it out in the playoffs, while the B-level teams will look to grow through good FAs and the C-level teams to improve over the long term with first round draft picks and some FAs.
If Bosh has decided to leave Toronto, then the Raptors should not attempt to get into the playoffs at the 6-8 position just to satisfy the t.h. fan’s need for their instant gratification fix. Best to let the team tank and sink to gain in the draft. Long term development and forget the instant fix.
No matter what the Raptors attempt to do in the next 3-4 seasons, they will not have developed into a contending A-level team with the current roster .. with or without Bosh … because the current A-level teams are just too talented.
Perhaps the best strategy is to trade Bosh to a contending A-level team or another near-contending B-level team for decent players and draft picks into the future … rather than allow the Raptors to rise in the standings only to satisfy the desires and needs of one player – Bosh … and of course the mindless t.h. fans.
I disagree with not being able to compete with those A list teams in 3-4 years. Atlanta is one of those teams and they came from nothing, just 3-4 years ago. At least we seem to have a strong foundation.
Fair enough, MackNorth … but top U.S. FAs will not come to Toronto, preferring to play and live for homeland teams.
The only way the Raptors can contend is to develop a team with top Euros and top U.S. draft picks .. with a few U.S. veterans … and that’s about it.
Toronto will not be the preferred location for max money and near-max money players … only old players coming to the end of their careers, like JO.
Top U.S. players will not come to Toronto to give Canada a contending NBA team … believe it ..!!!!!
I choose to believe otherwise but hey… There’s no more real rivalry like back in the day where guys truly hated each other, these days everyone seems to just wanna be friends. If the guys on this team can do a little recruiting during the season, it might pay off. Who knows.
But you’re talking about it as if it were a religion or something. As if life or death depended on it. If you’re a tribal honking fan – so what? National security doesn’t depend on it, and most people have other things going on in their lives so….
What’s the harm in making the playoffs – especially if you’re the Toronto Raptors?!
Get off the panic button Phd.
If this team hasn’t gotten any better by the trade deadline, we ship Bosh off to a contender for nothing but draft picks and expiring contracts.
I choose option number 2 Bosh for Josh Smith and Marvin Williams but i doubt Atlanta would go for that unless they r truly intent on winning it all this season.
A fairly pessimistic but somewhat fair perspective…. but one thing no one is talking about is….
Maybe Bosh walking as a UFA isnt the end of the world?
I think he’s a top 5-10 player who has shown more than enough talent to label franchise, but IF he for whatever reason decides that he’s no longer comfortable in TO, than the capspace in a HUGE FA year could possibly be more valueable than a sign-and-trade scenario. There are MANY 2nd teir players that are going to be had for cheap after everyone spends their 2010 cash…
I think Bosh to Utah for Boozer and New York’s 1st pick makes a ton of sence. We get a high pick and we get a legit PF. I believe it could work… Comments?
I believe it doesnt work for Utah though.
“Utah is already in salary cap hell and will not want to resign Bosh with all of their salary commitments. I don’t think a half year of Bosh would be worth a first rounder + Boozer contributions because I still think their talent will not propel them over LA Lakers, Boston etc. for the championship. Finally, it would take Bosh a while to learn the offense and defense sets, why would they want that when they have a person who knows the sets well in Boozer?”
cuz boozer has burnt the utah bridge about 4 times now – he’s REALLY doesnt want to be there.
I don’t think someone who lives in Miami in the off-season and has already stated that he would love to be traded to Miami , would be interested in joining the Raptors . Also , is he a team man , does he have some leadership qualities ?. Another thing is that NY is one game from 8th place in the East and may still make the playoffs.
They also have a .370 winning percentage…
You know this is a great article. . . Your right, trading bosh now will be the best time. . . Raptors need two years for a quick rebuild. Chicago will be a very good option. . . That team is really on the downslide, getting their first round pick should be viewed more carefully at the trade deadline. . . Pieces like NOAH and first rouder for bosh. . . But there is also a possibility that if they aquire bosh the team might turn it around which means the first round pick becomes more worthless as the season goes on. . . They would have a better shot at landing dewane wade next year if they have the pieces as rose and bosh on the roaster. . . Imagine Wade who signed with jordan, comes to chicago to carry the legacy of the franchise. . . Wade, rose, and bosh will be a deadly combination. . . And they’ll have a lot of pieces to give. . . Another intrestig scenario could be miami heat, micheal beasly. The problem with beasley he dosn’t fit at 3 or 4 . . . his game is still hard to figure out. . . The raps should package jose and turkalou and get much value for those guys even 1st round lottery picks if possible. . . The UTAH jazz will be an ideal place, because they have the knicks lottery pick. . . Ofcourse they have to unload one of their players. . . They’ve already unloaded their rookie and matt harping. . . So this is gonna be really intresting. . . Colangelo does not sit back, he’ll make the risky moves if he needs to. . . Thats why I like our chances of getting something for bosh. . . So far Colangelo dealt with the situation the best way. . .
It’s simple the raps need to target a guy like john wall or evan turner in the draft. . . The more lottery picks the better the chance. . . You really think teams like utah and jazz will pick john wall? they’ll take him for the sake of a block buster trade. . . But raps could possibly give good pieces to make a deal happen. . . But the picture will get more clear during the end of the season. . . how the raps finish, what happens with bosh and what direction is the franchise going in. . . As a loyal raps fan making the playoffs isn’t enough for me. . . you got teams like cavs, boston, atlanta, orlando in the east who the raps don’t have a chance to win in t he playoffs against. . . Orlando, atlanta, and boston, have destroyed us, put the cavs in the mix in the up comming schedual. . . So logic tells me a quick rebuild this year and next. . . Develop sunny, derozan, bargs, amir, and then get two solid studs in the draft. . . We should follow the model of ATLANTA hawks, and our rebuilding process wont even be long as their rebuilding process. . . Imagine if tyrke evens fell to the raps? this convo would not even happen, bosh happy, raps happy, me happy!
And lastly tradin bargnani for haslem would be a dumb move. . . Give the guy a chance, we see flashes, so he isn’t really a bust in my eyes. . . Behind roy, gay, and alderidge, theres bargs. . . Different type of play, so his development will be slower. . . You see flashes
I haven’t finished you post but I gotta get right on your ass about the mindless crap that you about spew that it better to be in the lottery than finish in 8th. Please please tell me the earth shattering diff. between the 14th and 15th picks in the draft – for christ sake start thinking rather than repeating shit you read on realgm. Playoff experience is priceless and you want to give that up for a pick in the 11 to 14 range. Another mail order PhD.
A lottery pick is in the 11 to 14 range? That definitely has the distinct odour of a bullshit post of exactly
“I haven’t finished you post but I gotta get right on your ass about the mindless crap that you about spew…”
WTF is this? Talk about mindless crap
We do know the difference between 16. Joey Graham and 17. Danny Granger…
ok, but all I want to ask is:
who is the last team to enter the playoffs in the 6, 7, or 8 seed to win the NBA title?
and furthermore, who is the last team to enter the playoffs in the 5-8 seeds to make it to the finals?
not sure of the answer, but off the top of my head, I cant think I have ever seen a finals in the last 30 years that didnt showcase 1 of hte top 3 teams in each conference.
someone wanna look this up?
thats all Im saying about finishing 8th.
phdsteve,
Champ — Houston in 1995. Rockets were a #6 seed.
Finals — New York in 1999. Knicks were a #8 seed.
I think those are the last teams to win a title and make the Finals from a seed that low. Rockets were the lowest seed in NBA History to win a title, is that correct? I think it is. And the Knicks are the only eight seed to make the Finals. Have to look that up to verify that but I think that’s correct.
You know what? F**k you, phdsteve! Because I WOULD rather have a home playoff game than a lottery pick. You know why? Because that means me and my friends – who are Raptor fans – can go out in April and have a great time at the ACC. I mean, at what point do you revel and take pleasure in your team losing? At Raptors Republic, it seems like losing is the goal – ‘oh great, now we can make witty rejoinders about Belinelli, tee hee, aren’t we clever?’ You guys seem more pleased to point out how terrible the Raps are than anything else. Good lord, you (and everyone who posts here) needs to shed this pathetic Toronto inferiority complex and decide why you even watch basketball at all.
I’d rather have this motley crew of players have a fighting chance at pulling off an upset than a bunch of Monday morning quarterbacks constantly pointing out what went wrong and what “we” need to do to accomplish this and that and blah, blah, blah…
preach.
There is no true Raptor fan who would rather watch who the Raps pick in the lottery on ESPN than go to a playoff game in Toronto.
I live in Montreal and I would prefer to see a playoff game on television with the Raptors in it rather than a lottery selection show.
There is no other choice than to give the younger players experience to complement the more experienced players that have already signed long term.
Anyone who mention tanking need to have brain surgery.
And the team owners would rather have a first round playoff appearance every year than be in the draft lottery. So, you’ll never see a team intentionally tank it. That said, I think the point of the original post was to lay out the options. And, to call people on the “we’re just one player away” and “we can build around Bosh” delusion that it seems most Raps fan have. If you feel that way you know nothing about basketball, or sports. And if that’s you then enjoy the playoff game! Get a jumbo drink and a hotdog and clap your hands and yell “Yaaaaaay”.
ok. fair enough. see my comment to #40 for my reasoning.
would you rather loose bosh for nothing. . . if bosh leaves you gotta softer team then home made muffens. You have to make a simple choice, get the max you can for bosh or let him leave with a “sign and trade” which i doubt youll get anything worthy back in return. . . i rather sign in 2010 good free agents but we got the turkish micheal jordan whose not much help. . .