Nine days after everybody wanted to fire the coach and trade every player we get to play the Hawks again. Since then we’ve had a team meeting, won three straight, but ended up losing to the best team we faced during the stretch, the Bucks. What will tonight bring? Some might say that it’ll be a test of character and a true indication of how serious this team is about the season, others might go with the “just another game” cliche, if only to avoid over-analysis in case of a loss. Whatever it is, the game provides a chance for the Raptors to prove that Atlanta was an anomaly and nothing close to resembling the truth.
Undeniably, you get the feeling that this season is all about winning two, losing one, winning three, losing four….500 basically. Nothing about .500 is surprising because most of us pegged this team right around the water-level mark, but that doesn’t stop it from being disappointing. As I was watching the fourth quarter of the Bucks game, I knew that we had no chance of coming back. Zero. It had nothing to do with Bargnani or Calderon being out, you just knew that too many things would have to go right for the Raptors to pull this out on the road. The porous unorganized defense I’m used to, but when we cool off from the outside it’s game over. Perimeter jumpers are our bread and butter and we’ve gone 13/56 (23%) from three over the last three games. Not going to get it done, not when the team is predicated on offense.
Bosh has been great to watch, but after him DeMar DeRozan is the guy I’m most enjoying. Maybe it’s because subconsciously I know that all that’s to come from this season is the young man’s development by playing high minutes while the team trots its way to mediocrity. He invariably starts the game strong and seems to get enough touches to make you think that he could be resourceful for the whole contest, but as game wears on you see less and less of him to the point where you forget that he’s a part of this team. Over the past four games, he’s only played 3:25 fourth quarter minutes, that’s it! The starters got a rest in the Chicago game but he didn’t play the 4th quarter or overtime against Washington, played 16 seconds against Milwaukee and played 3:09 against Minnesota.
This is despite him doing well in the first half and shooting 47% overall. 14 of the 20 lineups he’s been in during the first half over this stretch has seen the team have a positive +/-. By contrast, he’s only played in 14 lineups in the second half in which only 3 have yielded a positive +/-. He’s attempted 26 first half field goals of which 19 have come in the first quarter. During this span, he’s only attempted 6 second half field goals. So why this massive usage drop-off? I can’t explain it, he’s played well enough in first halves that it warrants the same number of touches (if not more) in the second. He’s not been a defensive liability by any means and has held his own on the glass – 4.5rpg. We need to have the activeness of DeRozan much more involved in our offense, not even for his development sakes but simply to win more games. The guy is more than just a rookie we’re bringing along, he can be a difference maker right now. I’d dig into more quarter-by-quarter analysis but at some point I’ll need to get to work.
The Republic seems to be split right down the middle on Bargnani. They used to be on Bosh too but his play this year has pulled a lot of naysayers over to his corner, at least so far. Bargnani’s got a 56.5 TS%, 17.2 DRB% and 11.2 TRB%, all career highs, so what is everybody complaining about? I think it’s about not living up to the standards of other traditional big men, for example 77% of his shots are jumpers which just doesn’t sit right with purists who are supported by history that this kind of center doesn’t produce wins, let alone titles. Bargnani is a unique breed, in the last 20 years there have only been 5 centers with at least three years of experience (like Bargnani) who average less than 6.5 rebounds while playing 30 minutes a game – Kevin Duckworth, Jason Collins, Mark Blount, Andrew Lang and Herb Williams. Hardly distinguished company. If you consider his career MPG of 27.5 and TRB% of 9.7, only once in the history of the NBA has a center been poorer at rebounding given those minutes and that’s James Edwards in 1989-90. My point? Bargnani is an experiment and the doubters have plenty of ammunition to go at him with. On a defensively challenged team like the Raptors, rebounding and defense (or lack thereof) will simply be given more attention.
If we look at the above criteria in terms of power-forward’s instead of center’s you’ll see that Bargnani’s stats are more comparable, still not great, but he definitely has more company than just five players. Will his defense be more acceptable to his critics if he played PF? Is there merit to his offensive game blossoming if he’s guarding shorter players?
Oh yeah, I’m supposed to preview the Hawks game. Does it really need a preview? They kicked our ass last time and we need a measure of vengeance. As bad as that loss was, this was the most haunting memory from that game. The game thread has the glitter and that’s all you really need, here are some things that would be nice to see:
- Al Horford shouldn’t be backing us down like we’re two feet tall. He was 10-12 last time around and his shot-chart was more congested than A-Dub’s basement apartment. A little defensive resistance would be appreciated.
- There’s some talk about bad defensive PGs, I don’t know where Jose Calderon ranks on that list but I know Mike Bibby’s not much better. Jack’s been playing very bullish on offense of late and putting Bibby on his heels could be doable. It’s hard to find advantages against the Hawks lineup but this could be one if we play our cards right. Then again, Bibby kills us, he’s shooting 60% against the Raptors over the last three seasons.
- I know this is way too much to ask, but can you please bring that energy and focus we saw in the first quarter of the game in Washington for 48 minutes tonight? It’s not even a back-to-back, I’m sure you if you put your minds to it and take comfort in the fact that you’ve got Saturday off, it’s possible. Do it for the fans, I’ll even buy a DeRozan Huskie jersey if you come through.
- Hedo Turkoglu’s searching for his game (it’s not here) and Triano isn’t doing anything to help him. He’s shooting 39% and 33% from three in December while only taking 10.5 FGs a game. He got outplayed by Ersan Ilyasova in the last game and was a complete and utter non-factor, that quick three he took late in the fourth quarter showed his frustrations. It basically said: I don’t know what plays we’re running but I heard on the radio that I’m supposed to be the fourth quarter guy around here so I better do something. Hmm, everybody’s still jogging back on offense, let me try this three, maybe if it goes in the press won’t hound me later…CLANG!!…oh well, we can always blame fatigue, and for f**k sakes, we did win three in a row. Give me a break. Note to Triano: Just take a page from Sam Mitchell’s single-page playbook and run the PnR with Bosh and Hedo 50 times tomorrow. Thanks.
…and finally…
If we have to pick somebody off the bench to spell Jack, let it be Belinelli. As A-Dub said in yesterday’s post, just because you got ‘PG’ next to your name, doesn’t mean you have to play when the starting PG is injured. In the last two games he’s singlehandedlly conceded a run to two rookies, first to Flynn and then to Jennings. In other words: Banks? No Thanks.
Blogger’s Take
Let’s talk to Bret LaGree, the TrueHoop blogger for the Hawks who runs Hoopinion.
Pick one player other than Bosh on the Raptors that you’d like to have and why.
I’d like to have Amir Johnson. I have a weakness for youth, rebounding, and cheap contracts.
Something that scares you about the Raptors.
The Hawks want teams to shoot jump shots, hence all the switching on screens which creates a sort-of sagging matchup zone. Toronto wants to shoot jump shots and if they’re making them, the Hawks will be unable to force them out of that comfort zone.
How’s Mike Bibby’s defense like?
Bibby’s defense doesn’t look any better but because he understands his defensive limitations, mitigates them as best he can, and gets most of his minutes alongside the Hawks’ best defenders (Josh Smith, Horford, Williams, and Joe Johnson) his defensive on/off numbers are outstanding this year. That his backups are Jamal Crawford and the rookie Jeff Teague (who could become a good defensive player but gambles too much and struggles to defend the pick-and-roll) helps Bibby look good by that measure as well.
The Hawks are a 3.5 point favorite. Calderon and Bargnani participated in shootaround and are game-time decisions. Joe Smith is out with a thumb injury.
Jimmy‘s sim is pointing to a 106-104 Raptors win. Catch the game at Raptor Fan Friday’s at SCC. Be sure to support RR and take part in the contest for free tickets. If you’re going to the game, know that it’s Canada Basketball night.
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54 Raps
As a bonus J-Smoov isn’t playing…. which can only help
I think you’ve got the wrong J. Smith. It’s Joe that’s out, not Josh. Too bad.
And my reading skills impress yet again!
no, joe smith isnt playing ur thinking josh smith.
You went through all those rebounding stats, and then asked if he defense would be okay for a PF. Do you equate Defense and rebounding as the same thing, to be so interchangeable?
I think Bargnani’s defense, especially his man to man D is actually pretty good. He’s not a good rebounder though.
I think he was just making a point that there might be a little less criticism of Bargnani if he were being compared to other power forwards (his natural position) instead of other centers.
I see that now.
I don’t know about that. There are less quality centers in the league then power forwards. I think his abilities are equal regardless of what position he plays.
His man to man defense is only good when he is in front of his man and in position. This has to do with the fact that he is a 7 footer who can extend his arms.
When Andrea is out of position, he is brutal and gets beat and exploited like a Thai hooker.
Notice that Rasho’s D is not that bad when he is in position. He doesn’t need to do much, the guys they guard will never be fast enough to cross them over. If they try, the helpers will be there in a heartbeat. You really don’t have to do much as 7 footer, as long as you don’t leave your feet (which is not a problem for Andrea). This is something that a lot of big men do not realize, as their instinct is always to do too much… again, doing too much in the post, not a problem for Andrea.
Let’s face it, Andrea is not going to win any defensive awards any time soon. I know that Raptor fans want to see the glass as half full, but make no mistake about it… at his position, the glass is half full.
“defense is only good when he is in front of his man and in position”
because anyone’s defense is ‘good’ when they are behind their man and out of position? The entire idea that you keep your man infront of you (or between you and the bucket) is the first step to good defense.
This is true, but you are not always so lucky to be in front of every man. Sometimes, you need to just be in front of the basket, and transition as the ball gets passed.
Too often, Andrea is caught looking at the pass, holding on to his man, thinking that somehow because he has his guy without the ball, he can’t influence the play.
You take out our center that way, all does is leave a bunch of little guys rushing to make up for the mistake.
Notice that even if Bosh is not in front of his man, he still tries his hardest to influence the play… Andrea just stands there like a pylon holding on to a player that will not be part of the play.
I would prefer our 7 footer to follow the play (on defense), and let the little guys switch on his assignment rather than have him rendered ineffective with a simple pass.
Andrea has a lot more to offer this team with his size and youth, than he does with his 3pt shooting.
I’m starting to get a bit confused here…
“Sometimes, you need to just be in front of the basket,and transition as the ball gets passed.”
this would be a zone defense which the coach should be calling. If he is doing this while the team is playing man defense he will most definetely be hurting his team. I find he actaully seems to do this sometimes and it rarely if ever leads to good things. What would be important here is staying with your man and recognizing when your team gets beat and needs help… then moving off to help.
“Too often, Andrea is caught looking at the pass, holding on to his man”
Bargs isn’t sitting around holding on to his man. If he was I would actually be pretty happy about it… although you would find him fouling out real quick. At the very least this shows he is tight with his man.
“I would prefer our 7 footer to follow the play (on defense), and let the little guys switch on his assignment”
If one is going to switch they both need to switch. Unless I am totally misinterpretting what you are saying here.
I’m not trying to be rude here or anything, I’m just getting a bit confused as to what you are getting at.
If Bargs was to solely stay on his man (except in zone D)… stay with him regardless of what is happening with the rest of the team I would be much happier with Bargs D. Where I think his defense fails is he is late in his help, late in deciding when to help or not, late in coming. If he stayed on his man and didn’t get himself into ‘no mans land’ the D wouldn’t be great, but it would be much better. Not only that, but the rest of the team would know what to expect from him. Simple stupid is really what he needs to do.
Now ofcourse that said its never as easy as that…..
The key for me is utilization of the strength that you do have, if you need to mix zone with a little man to man… by all means do it. Its not like the basketball gods are going to cry folly because you are not doing one or the other. (You are already challenging the status quo with a 3pt shooting center)
I am not saying I want Andrea to mindlessly follow the ball. That would be like monkey in the middle. What I do want is for him to reposition himself in such a way that he becomes a central deterrent to players driving into the paint.
Too often he gets caught flat footed… while we are getting raped inside.
Sometimes that may mean even leaving your man without anyone on him… guess what, this is often done, when the clock is down or the defender is certain that a shot is going up. It is a gamble, but the good centers know when to take this gamble, and come in like gangbusters to assert their territory.
What I am saying, is that for a mobile, quick step guy, he sure is flat footed on D.
How many times have you seen Andrea bail out Jose when he gets beat by his man? That is what a mobile center is supposed to do.
Why doesn’t this kid take more pride in his territory?
There no doubt about that… but its not as if Bosh bails out our perimeter D, or Rasho, and rarely Amir (well he might more if he could stay in the game). We know where Bargs is weak (his help D) but then we can use that same argument with nearly every other post defender we have.
This is more of a product of not having a shot blocker on the team. We can’t blame just Bargs for that.
It’s well document that he is not the best help defender in the world. He is a good offnsive player and does a good job playing defence on the ball but you he seems to get a bit lost when he has to step over to stop a blow by. He has shown flashes of improvement in this area lately though.
“Kevin Duckworth, Jason Collins, Mark Blount, Andrew Lang and Herb Williams. Hardly distinguished company.”
you keep addressing your readers as if they’re reflexively changing their opinions from game to game. that’s a invalid assumption.
from last year to today, triano has been a wreck of a coach. he’s a marketing hire, plain and simple. and the marketing perspective is so waaaaay off base because what the fans really want is not some tip-of-the-cap pseudo patriotism, but an actuall NBA experienced coach. It still boggles my mind that in the critical year for the raps when they could have proved to their franchise 4 that they’re really committed to winning, they hired a 2nd tier canadian college coach. ugh. this is HORRIBLE.
bosh has always been a top tier PF. this is his contract year so OF COURSE he’s playing well. But to give up on this guy when he’s approaching maturity and after all you’ve invested in him is LUNACY.
Bargs is a red herring. the fact that you have to dig around and pull stats and make leaps from his numbers to state he’s somehow a complete and relevant player is fallacy. it’s beneath a real b-ball blog… lol… or at least i wish it was.
and here’s the real killer; anyone that says “this is a team the raptors have to beat if they want to be seen as a playoff contending team” is totally drunk from kool-aid. the actual truth is that the raptors are the kind of team OTHER teams beat on their way to the playoffs.
sigh.
but /salute to rapsrepub; you’re about the best local hoops site we’ve got.
I’m pretty certain that one of the main reasons Triano was considered in the first place was due to his relationship with Bosh. Triano’s been his personal coach since he started in the league and Bosh highly supported the hire.
Here is an example to demonstrate this point.
Andrea is often found at the perimeter on offense, right? He is considered very mobile for a player of his size.
How many times have you seen him run back to protect the rim and contest a shot when the play breaks down and the other team is on the fast break?
I can’t think of one instance.
I re-read Arse, perhaps you were making an entirely separate points about the Defense?
I was just saying that on a defensively deficient team, we have more defensive/rebounding expectations of our starting center than we have offensive ones.
I have said this once before…but if you want Hedo involved than he needs to run the high pick and roll w/ Bosh/Bargnani, the pick and pop w/ Calderon, or he needs to find the mismatch in the post after a switch.
I know we have an aversion to the pick and roll here at the republic due to Triano’s predecessor, but when run effectively by someone like Hedo and another tall player like Bargs/Bosh, it can be virtually unstoppable.
Hedo is being underutilized.
Banks has shown why his best position is on the bench in a suit.
He could expand his horizons and pass juice around the locker room at half-time. Give Jose a break there, can’t f*ck that up now, can he?
A four mil a season he should be in there massaging their feet as well….
I’m worried that Banks’ juice passing skills are as good as his basketball passing skills and he might take someone’s eye out.
that might even be more embarrassing than stabbing yourself in bed while peeling an apple or a moped related injury.
lol!
Just updated the post with the TrueHoop blogger’s take on the Raptors, asked him about Mike Bibby’s defense.
Awesome post, I like your take on DeRozan getting more 2nd half minutes. Not only would he provide somebody that is willing to go to the hoop but he would get more bigs in foul trouble as we have seen in his first halves. As fun as it is to see Wright panic and force jumpshots, I would rather see DeRozan put it on the floor.
P.S. Great pic to headline the post and hilarious links to other pics. Iavaroni looks like he’s having an aneurysm.
too true. that hedo pic was awesome!
Hypothetical situation: We both like DeMar … but what if we had two(2) DeRozans .. one at SG and the other at SF .. how do you think this team would look and play?
As for you hate on Bargs, be prepared for a Boshless Raps and Bargs at PF … sepuku for U …??!!!!
great job again Arse! Love the insight and analysis.
I am amazed at how passionate this Bosh vs. Bargs debate has become on the republic, especially over the last two weeks.
imagine how good this team would be if:
both these guys played to their potential at the same time.
why cant we all just get along and team up to all bash Hedo together? I mean, no one is going to defend that guy, right? and if he is popping 15-20ppg we win 3-4 more games, no?
LMAO!!! I’m all for Hedo bashing.
I agree.
I think they have the potential to be a better combo than most give thm credit for as well as they are both young and still improving big men.
As for the debate between them, there is no comparison between the two players as one has firmly established himself as a star in the league and the other has not (at this point in time).
As for those that keep on referring to CB leaving and Andrea playing the 4 and whatever other concoctions or future they think they can see via their tarot cards, there be some major surprises (or dissapointment ) when he re-ups with the Raps again.
Funny clip about Chris Bosh’s fired up play this year…
http://www.youtube.com/user/CarbonJones
Perfect DeRozan analysis.
I can’t believe he only gets to play his slotted minutes. Triano never brings him back in to the game in the second quarter… and hardly uses him in the third… and never in the fourth.
Based on his play recently there’s no reason not to bring him back in to the game. He seems to bring a little bit of what Amir brings… hustle and determination… something that I think the rest of the team could use an injection of.
Bosh Trade Scenarios
Bosh for Ellis and Biedrins
Bosh and player for Harden,Collison and Sebalosha
Bosh for Deng, Noah and draft pick
Bosh for Nene and Jr Smith
Only feasible trade is Bosh for Lee, Darko and Gallinari … believe it..!!!!
That way we can trade in Bosh’s questionable ability to defend for someone where there is absolutely no question he can’t defend!
I would love to have 3 more semi talented white basketball players. We could start 5 white guys would have to be the first time in like 20 years thats happend in the nba (lol)
Yup … add to that Yao Ming or Yi Jianlian, somebody from Bollywood and the Holy Land, and the Raps would cover most of Toronto’s demographics.. and then the MLSE will be rolling in loonies and toonies ….!!!
….along with some, Yen, Yuan, Dongs, Rupee, and GOLD! They’ll take them all!!!
.:T:.
AMEN AMEN AMEN!!! On DeRozan! We have him for at least 3-4 season on his rookie contract, with the last year being a team option? could be wrong, but nevertheless, why WAIT! He is doing every thing this team lacking!!! Has anyone seen his youtube vids, he can handle the ball too!!! I hope as the season goes on, we start to see him in the 28-32 mpg range!
As for Banks, I think his hands are to small for the ball or maybe his arms are to big??? I don’t know, but man does he ever look awkward handling the ball!!!
.:T:.
And what about a trade for Andrew Bogut and see how white aussies play, not like those soft europeans.
ya i think that would be a pretty good idea him and bosh would be a really good front court.
Hedo?
More like Hedon’t, so far anyway
Hawks Game Thread???
Bargs and Jose are game time decisions? That’s because if the fans knew they were out, there would be no reason to come to the game!
Raps, please prove this to be wrong.
I am a big Bargnani supporter. Partly because hes a Raptor, partly because he can shoot for a Big Man, and partly because hes on my fantasy team.
But during the last few games his shot has been off and his agressivness has been way down (maybe its his ankle…we’ll see…)
The thing thats pissing me off most is seeing him pump fake (great), get his man in the air and dribble by him (great) then setle for a jumper or a awkward leaner (FAIL). He should take it straight to the basket and try to dunk(your freaking 7ft tall!!!), not avoid contact and settle for horrible shots.
I hope if Bargs plays Triano does not match him up with Josh Smith again. Either he gets Horford or have him rest his ankle, Smith is an absolutely stupid coaching match up
Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
Well, that game played out just about as expected.
This team is about as good with their chemistry as I was in grade 11. (i got a 30% on the first test, and dropped that son of a bitch so fast!)