After my last Chris Bosh piece, I spent the weekend discussing with some friends whether or not he would re-up with the Raptors after this season. While I remain hopeful he’ll be the franchise’s cornerstone for the length of another max contract, the possibility exists that Bosh will leave.
What my discussions about his future with the team got me thinking about was why he would stay with the Raptors. Obviously loyalty, comfort, a chance to be moderately competitive, being the face of basketball for an entire country, and money are factors that would push him toward resigning to some degree.
Money is the issue most look at the closest, so I wanted to dig a little deeper in that regard. I know, for instance, that the Raptors, by way of holding his Bird Rights, can offer him larger raises (10.5% annual non-compounded vs. 8% annual non-compounded), more years (six vs. five), and a larger starting salary (110.5% of his current salary vs. 105% of his current salary) than other teams can. This, of course, can be negated via a sign and trade, basically making any team ‘able’ to offer him these contractual terms should they offer the Raptors something of significant value to do it. The sign and trade is rare and complicated, though, and could be considered an asset belonging to the Raptors as much as to another team (creating incoming value for an otherwise outgoing free agent).
Over the life of the contract, the Raptors can offer approximately $36.5M more than any other team, though this is overstated to a degree by the extra year. Over just five years, they can still offer approximately $9.9M more than anyone else (and yes, that means Bosh would be pulling in $26.6M in 2015-16).
But these are just numbers, and raw numbers at that. It isn’t enough to look at money in terms of a simple number, just as it isn’t enough to look at interest rates without taking inflation into account. Yes, even in the sports world, there is a large difference between nominal and real dollars. Nominal dollars, of course, are what we hear reported most often…they are easiest to understand, and the salary cap and luxury tax are explained and adhered to in terms of nominal adjustment. The Raptors get no currency exchange, the Heat face no restrictions for the lack of a state tax in Florida, and the Lakers get no kickback due to the high cost of living and operating in California.
For an intelligent player, factors like these would certainly find their way into a decision set when choosing what team to sign with. The following analysis tries to take into account the Bird Rights advantage, state and federal income taxes, and local cost of living indices. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a feasible way to incorporate market size or marketability into the analysis, however, I sorted the results before cost of living was factored in – you may want to use the After Tax Earnings as a de facto results column, since cost of living may either be ignored by players or cancelled out by the opportunities that come with a wealthier/larger market.
The chart below (click to enlarge…seriously) shows all 30 teams, with disregard for actual cap space because so much can happen between now and the summer, and what they can offer Chris Bosh strictly in terms of money, factoring in a few nuances that turn nominal money into real money.
Obviously, even in after-tax earnings, the Raptors can offer more money than anyone else. This is an extremely important distinction because one of the main knocks against Toronto in the free agent market is the adverse income tax structure in Ontario. After the Raptors, the tax-free-state teams can offer the most, and there are intriguing options like Memphis (strong young core), Miami (weather and Wade), Orlando (championship contender and D-12), and the three Texas teams (all competitive, and Bosh’s home state). While not all of these teams will have cap space, if they do they pose the most significant monetary threat to the Raptors. The California teams would be at the largest disadvantage, able to offer $10M less in real dollars over the course of the contract than those teams in tax-free states.
When we figure in the cost of living, things get less certain for the Raps. Cost of living is a tricky area though. For one, cost of living isn’t a large part of most people’s decision sets – people simply don’t recognize the value in living in an inexpensive area. There could be several reasons for this, chief among them being (for athletes) the correlation between market size and cost of living. More expensive places to live are generally more populous, and more heavily populated areas tend to be looked at as more favorable destinations for social and marketing reasons. Again, this is why I didn’t sort the chart by the post-COLA column…cost of living may be irrelevant, or it may be cancelled out by factors that correlate with cost of living. A final note is that there is also a fairly significant cost of moving, which isn’t factored into COLA here but would affect Bosh’s financial bottom line. Selling his place in Toronto, moving, and starting anew is a costly procedure, though in terms of a $100M contract it is probably bubble gum to Bosh.
(An interesting note for us local Raptor fans: Toronto is one of the most expensive cities in the world to live, checking in just ahead of Los Angeles at 54th in 2008 but falling to 85th in 2009. The more you know…)
This analysis, of course, applies for all players and all teams (and feel free to email me at bmurphy5586@hotmail.com for the Excel file…it is simple but a fun thing to play around with).
The conclusion is what we all knew already – if the decision were strictly financial, Bosh’s options would be limited to the Raptors or a team that could work a sign and trade. As it is, there are things like quality of the team, the city, other players and friends, taxes, and personal preferences all tugging at Bosh (and the entire Class of 2010)…what he puts into his final decision set, we’ll never know. We can wait…
106 Raps
great piece. love the $ for $ breakdown.
thanks for the insight.
I think Bosh is facing a choice between “being a big fish in a small pond or a small fish in a big pond”
There is ALOT of talent out there that would drown Bosh as much on the boards as on the bench. Most teams are relatively more seasoned as a unit than our Raptors and they would just as soon swallow him whole than to give him the limelight against the back-drop of their own contract talks.
Raptors have yet to hit their stride. And hit it they will, I’m sure with the talent there is to work with. But the coach canNOT play FOR them. Wed’s loss against the Bobcats was strictly mental sloppiness. I dunno WHAT the hell they were thinking. Everything they did right the game before was lost to over-confidence. Instead of building on it to earn the win it looked like they were assuming it would just happen.
Bosh can’t carry the Raptors by himself, but he can lead them. Raptors can’t carry any deadwood if they’re going to take ANY lead this season.
It seems Bosh is facing a choice between “being a big fish in a small pond or a small fish in a big pond”
There is ALOT of talent out there that would drown Bosh as much on the boards as on the bench. Most teams are relatively more seasoned as a unit than our Raptors and they would just as soon swallow him whole than to give him the limelight against the back-drop of their own contract talks.
Raptors have yet to hit their stride. And hit it they will, I’m sure with the talent there is to work with. But the coach canNOT play FOR them. Wed’s loss against the Bobcats was strictly mental sloppiness. I dunno WHAT the hell they were thinking. Everything they did right the game before was lost to over-confidence. Instead of building on it to earn the win it looked like they were assuming it would just happen.
Bosh can’t carry the Raptors by himself, but he can lead them. Raptors can’t carry any deadwood if they’re going to take ANY lead this season.
I was with you right up to Toronto is a semi competitive team. We suck. He is so sick of answering questions about why we suck that I put the chances of him staying at 0! HE will ask for a sign and trade and we will send him to Miami for Beasley and a bunch of losers. I can’t believe the Raptors have blown it again. Why can’t we win?
I think the killer question is will MLSE and BC invest want to some $134 Million in one player .. or will they decide that the Toronto Raptors should be staffed by several players for that same money?
Let’s be honest and just admit that a max money Bosh will not bring a championship to Toronto, and that Bosh will be highly frustrated playing for the Raptors with no hope of being a consistent playoff team.
If BC does not consider Bosh a max money player, that will make Bosh’s departure that much more simplified, because he will get max money from other US-based teams.
If you look at the Raptor’s salary tables, you will see that BC has heavily invested in Hedo, Jose and Bargs .. and for the long term. Surely this must tip you off to the probability that BC is not planning for Bosh to stay with the Raptors … what more do you need ???
I think what people need to realize is that if we swapped Bosh with LeBron, Kobe or Wade, this isn’t a championship team. At best, we’re the Miami Heat.
Bosh on his own wont win a championship, he needs help, and this team isn’t what he needs to win games.
Agreed. The comment by FAQ is irrelevant on its own. You obviously cannot consider one player in a vacuum.
I disagree. The Raps would be a lot better than we are now with Kobe, Lebron or Wade. In fact, with Lebron, I’d say on the cusp of championship better.
I like Bosh but I’m just not “feeling it” as our franchise player we invest $130 million into. Not based on the results with him so far. We’ve tried so many combinations of the “build around Bosh” plan. It hasn’t worked yet.
I’m not saying he’s to blame – he puts up good numbers, star numbers – I just would not invest that kind of money in him. And please don’t trot out his stats – doesn’t matter to me. Garnett’s stats haven’t been as good as Bosh since he joined Boston – Duncan’s haven’t been as good either – but I feel it with those guys. Totally unscientific, but players like KG and Duncan make team mates better. Hold them accountable. Do the little things. Bosh doesn’t.
And other teams just don’t fear him. Again, there is not Hollinger’esque geek stat to measure it, but you know that’s a factor. Opponents and fans soil themselves when some players turn it on – Kobe, Lebron, Duncan, KG, Wade … Bosh – no. Never will. He’s Pau Gasol good. Which is good, just not “build around” good.
Bosh will be a great second banana on a good team. Or, he’ll be a stat stuffer on a mediocre team.
Time for a re-boot – change the culture of this mo’fo. Get some new blood for Bosh. Don’t fall into this Toronto fan trap of settling for mediocre results. We’re not the f*cking Leafs!
You’re saying if we had Bosh instead of LeBron this is a championship calibre team? Based on what? You’re feelings?
We have no one who plays defense. teams that win championships play defense.
I didn’t say we would win a championship, I said “on the cusp of”. Meaning top 3 seed in the East, a threat to advance to the conference finals. You really think last year’s Cavs team or this years was a great defensive team? I’m not debating we suck defensively. I agree. And adding Lebron wouldn’t help that. What this thread is about is do we sign Bosh to a max contract – the same one Lebron, Wade, Kobe get. I say no for the reasons above. And I get that “feelings” isn’t quantifiable like some acronym invented by stats geeks. But, if you’ve played or watched any sport you’ll get what I’m saying. It’s the difference between a Larry Bird and a Domanique Wilkens. Both great. But if you had to bet your life on one of them winning a game for you in the last two minutes, who would you have chosen?
You started with adding LeBron/Wade/Kobe, and I said we wouldn’t be on the cusp of a championship team because our defense sucks. Last years Cavs team was a great defensive team, they only allowed 91.4 points a game:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/standings?season=2009
I agree that if we had LeBron/Kobe/Wade we would be a better team, but not on the cusp of anything. We wouldn’t be any better then the current Miami Heat, or the Lakers before they got Pau (both about 45 win teams).
Wilkens played in the time of Bird/Dr. J. He is like Malone/Stockton. A great player, but bad timing. Obviously Bird was a better player.
You mean the many that wanted to sign Zach Randolph, Elton Brand…There are enough idiots in the NBA that will pay max to Bosh. Lets us not be the one. Let him prove that he can achieve something in Toronto. What has he achieved here in Toronto. He chokes in the 4th, screams at players (even when he commits many errors) and choked in the playoffs series with the Nets and Magic.
Both Randolph and Brand are 20/10 players. Would you want then on your team.
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With LeBron, we would not be on the cusp … we’d be leading the Conference. He is who he is, a 30, 8 and 7 superstar.
With Howard, we’d be in the top 3 or headed that way – and definitely Conference title material. Dwight’s ability to grab rebounds, would off-set Andrea’s weakness. With more seasoning, the odds of top 3 would only get better.
As for Wade, it would probably be a little more difficult. That said, I certainly think we wouldn’t have been a 33 win team.
I’m sure there are a few players who could bring a different dynamic to the Raptor style of play. Players who are not Max salary types, but who simply bring positive results.
And not necessary because they’d put up bigger numbers then Bosh, but because our other players might have the opportunity to put up their own big numbers.
And for those who see some sort of anti-Bosh persona out there and the rallying cry …. “he’s not worth MAX” … remember that some posters pay more heed to the accounting side of a complicated Salary Cap, and it’s affect on Rosters. Especially since we acquired a classic example – JO.
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Reality is we are NOT going to sign Kobe, Lebron etc. So you take the 6th, 7th… 10th best player. And that player (e.g. Bosh) WILL get the max contract. If not here then 15 other teams will be chomping at the bit to have this tremendous asset.
Exactly, Bosh is probably the top tier type of player that the raps will ever be able to lure/keep. Unless they can get a player like a Kobe, Wade, Lebron from a draft pick, but them they will probably jump ship when they become FA’s anyway.
We would be definitely a better team with them instead of Bosh.
Let me guess our franchise player plays defense. In the next videos highlighting defensive errors, please be fair and comment on his deficiency. It would give a more balanced analysis from your site.
With Kobe, Lebron or Wade they would be a better team but you’re not getting any of these SWING men and instead of throwing out those names throw out names of players you could conceivably replace Bosh with.
Once you find the next player that will be that leader or the best player on your team, cause no one on the roster fits that bill currently, then your arguments have more merit.
Until then your talk is like psssing in the wind.
And those that talk about salary cap implications look at the money other players on this roster are making in relation to their production and you’ll realize that you might have far bigger issue than Bosh making that kind of money. No one is complaining about his salary right now so why after a slight increase?
Compare Kobe’s supporting cast during his championships versus Bosh over the years. ‘nough said.
Kobe being a franchise player would have worked quite well with our so called franchise player, Chris Bosh. Chris Bosh with kobe would be a perfect second fiddle. Thats what he is.
Chris Bosh would not have to choke like he does in late 4th quarter and in the playoffs (You probably think that he outplayed Jason Collins of the Nets and Dwight Howard of the magic)with Kobe.
I wish Toronto had brought in a franchise player to play with Chris Bosh. Toronto would have been a different team.
Bring in a franchsie player? They grow on tress apparently. You’ve named 3-4 guys better than him. Take out those three names cause any team in the league would be better off with those players, and now come tell us who REALISTICALLY you could replace him with. Joe Johnson? Amare Stoudemire? Toronto fans love to hate their own.
I wonder if you’ll say that about Barg’s. On second though, probably not.
I disagree totally! First off comparing Bosh to Kobe, Lebron or Wade is a disgrace to all three of those players as Bosh is no where near their caliber. Sure he puts up the stats on a team that he basically rules, and no one dares push for more action but the only way Bosh will ever win a championship is if he is teamed with one or two players that can really carry a team. He is second offensive option on a championship team at best. This same Raptor team with any of the big three instead of Bosh is a hugely different team because they can all carry a team and produce a pile of wins without tons of help. This Raptors team is better than the Cavs without LeBron.
Also while the stats here are very well done to show the scenarios the Raptors would be doomed forever if they gave Bosh $134 million contract. No way in the world he’s worth that kind of money unless MLS decides to run it like the Yankees and get two or three other players at that kind of pay scale. If someone really will give Bosh a max contract I say sign and trade away baby. We could get one great player and likely another kid with promise and we would be better than now. All you guys continually trash almost every player here except the chosen one and he has as many lapses as any player and he’s a selfish stat padder.
“…only way Bosh will ever win a championship is if he is teamed with one or two players that can really carry a team.”
That is EVERY championship team. Jordan had Pippen etc. Kobe had Shaq, or Gasol , Bird had Parrish, DJ, McHale, Magic had Kareem.
In today’s NBA, it will be very difficult for any ONE player to carry a whole team – if not impossible.
As well there are two different issues here. There can be a huge difference between MAX players – you don’t have to be on the exact same level – that’s the whole point – its a MAX. Otherwise maybe LeBron and Kobe get $35M per, Wade get $27M, Melo and Bosh get $24M – as an example. But since its capped then a bunch of players WILL get the max.
shaq had kobe..
You’re not a very astute or casual basketball fan if you think that Bosh has as many lapses (I assume you’re referring to defence) as his teammates and is a selfish stat padder.
You guys kill me. lol
Drafted by the Raps and has been a soldier his whole time here.
Leading scorer, rebounder, gets to the line more than the rest of the team combined it seems, is the ONLY player that attracts a double team, but he’s like the rest of the team, right?
Let me guess, Barg’s is your favorite player on the squad? lol
Sleepz I do not as you put it have a favorite player although I think Bargnani has tremendous upside including being a better baller than Bosh in many aspects which you may find crazy.He is already more gifted offensively by a wide stretch, and he’s a better man defender. I also think Amir has more upside than Bosh so it’s not so much that my favorite is Bargnani as much as I am sick of watching Bosh think he’s a superstar and try to take over games he cannot. I also am a very astute basketball fan who has played right through all levels of school, and some tough men’s leauges. I have had Raptor season tickets since day 1. Meantime none of that matters other than I don’t share your opinions. I think Bosh has to go for this team chemistry to improve and hope Colangelo pulls the trigger soon. This team could become a team without Bosh, while it will only be a bunch of players surrounding an all star player who thinks he’s a superstar player and has the ego of Lebron without the talent to carry a team. Also Yes I think he’s a selfish player and that he thinks everything should go through him to the detriment of the team and other players. This organization needed a star after Vince left and they made it Bosh but his head’s bigger than his game.Oh and Bosh is a horrible passer for the amount of years he’s been here, mind you he does’nt get much practice at passing though.
Pizza,
You’re funny.
Bargniani is much more gifted offensively than Bosh? Barg’s is a better shooter especially from three point land, but doesn’t get to the line with any regularity and rarely gets second chance points off offensive boards. Offensively gifted is based on what to you?
Better defender? Based on what evidence again outside your infatuation with #7?
To suggest Amir has more upside makes me wonder if you know what upside means.
I’ve played from high school up, and in men’s leagues as well. I don’t have season tickets but I dont’ think that means anything to the foolish arguments you are spewing. Ask GM’s around the league who have far more credentials than you or I about your assessments and laughter will be the response.
You think Bosh is a selfish player, while all his previous coaches have decided to direct the offence through him for a purpose.
It’s alright to hate Bosh, your more than entitled to, just don’t talk nonsense about selfishness, and Barg’s being a better offensive player, and Amir having more upside and all the crap in between.
Just indicate your hate and leave out all the novice analysis
That’s just not true. Never say that again.
Yes, we would be like Miami.
So trade Bosh and get a couple of players with a draft pick. Bosh is not a franchise player, nor does he deserve a max contract. All you need to think about is the Blue Jays and Wells monster contract. Bosh will play hard this year (for stats only – his double doubles don’t mean anything if his TEAM doesn’t win!)And then we will be stuck with a player that is content because he is getting paid, not winning. Bosh is NOT a “superstar”! If he put as much effort into trying to play team defence as he does faking fouls ( most times he looks like a soccer player… could be the European influence )maybe he could be great.
TRADE BOSH NOW!
The Raptors will never win if they continue to try and put a team around Bosh. His style of play is not the style a franchise player plays. He will never hit the big shot, I don’t care which team he plays for! All the hopes for Bosh to be great is just that “hopes”, it’s time to give up on him and look to the next person…who isn’t playing for Toronto, yet.
Go Raps Go!
I can’t see this situation as anything but a lose-lose, and here’s why:
We’re locked into Jose, Bargs, and Hedo for the next five years, all with sizable contracts which will be extremely difficult to move. If Bosh re-ups, we’re basically stuck with the core we have now and I think we can all recognize that this group has a fairly low ceiling. If Bosh walks, Bargnani suddenly becomes our best player, and as far as he’s come the past two seasons, we stand no chance of being competitive with him as the linchpin of our franchise. I don’t see us coming close to replacing Bosh’s scoring or rebounding in 2010 free agency and/or the draft (in which we owe Miami a lottery-protected first rounder).
That makes our best option moving him before this year’s deadline or working a profitable sign-and-trade in the offseason. If Colangelo can find a good offer, one in which we can actually acquire some toughness and defensive grit, this might all work out in our favour. But that seems dubious for a couple of reasons. First, I’ve lost just about all my faith in BC in light of those atrocious aforementioned contracts and the fact that we gave away two first-round picks in the whole J.O. debacle. Also, the fact that Bosh is set to be an unrestricted FA will inevitably diminish the value of whatever package we’ll be offered in return.
My biggest fear is that we panic, make a rash, lopsided trade, then watch in agony as Bosh tortures us by hitting countless gut-wrenching game-winners and inciting a decade of bad Raptors karma. Wouldn’t be the first time
No matter how much money the Raptors are able to offer bosh, I believe that he will still leave. Did you see his face in last night loss against Charlotte?? Chris Bosh looked so pissed and disappointed, he had that “I can’t wait to leave” look after the team loss 35 points. Bosh just wants to win, and this season is looking very bad for the raptors. If the team is trying to convince Bosh to stay then they better start winning some games.
Do you think Kobe was looking for a way out when Denver whipped the Lakers ass this year?
Every team has a game like the Raptors last night. Bosh knows it, so should we. Obviously it makes good business sense on both sides to see what this season brings, given the amount of dollars Colangelo has spent this summer.
Yeah, every team gets these types of games, Lakers too. Denver does that to Raptors on regular basis and we are used to it now :(
But being humiliated by Bobcats?
don’t underestimate the pussies. they may be a newer franchise and have a gay name, but they do own us dating from last season. gerald wallace is a raptor killer. and now they upped by getting captain jack. they will be one of our rivals for a seed in the playoffs. we should avenge this humiliation at the acc.
While Toronto is a very expensive place to live, we know that Bosh also maintains a house in Texas and lives there in the off season. What effect does this have on the net earnings?
Probably nothing, because he has to pay taxes here as he earns in Toronto. He might transfer money to US and save on interest earned on his money/investments though.
Cost of living shouldn’t be a huge factor – renting/buying a condo for a fe w years. Otherwise, what, some dinners out and drycleaning? Not that different. You would likely have sold your condo recently for a MUCH better price than any property in the U.S.
Having properties in two countries isn’t all that different than two different states. The one difference is that if he did buy a condo here, he’s likely doing much better than if he bought one in Det, Cle, NYC etc.
It’s diffcult to believe that, since Bosh has to pay income tax to the United States government and to Canada as well, he’d make more money playing in Canada. Unless I’m mistaken, he has to pay income tax to the Canadian government on the money earned for the 42 games played at the ACC, and also has to pay income tax to the United States for those ball games, and at quite a high rate (39%?).
Seems like that might cancel out the extra money for his Bird rights.
He will make more money because he will have one more year on his contract here. hard to turn down a guaranteed 25mill when the future is so up in the air.
As well as the additional money available to him because of the higher % raises the Raptors can offer.
I don’t think you’re double taxed on income earned.
“Income taxes paid by U.S. citizens to foreign countries may either be deducted from income taxable in the U.S., or claimed as a credit ….”
You are correct sir.
I hope that’s true, because unfortunately the US is one of the only countries that forces its citizens to pay income tax on money earned outside the country (Canada doesn’t).
He wont be double taxed on his money earned…no country does that…why do you think there are so many multinationals in the world?
Here’s the difference. If you are a Canadian citizen living in the Philippines driving a bus for a living there, you will pay taxes to the Filipino government(s), but Canada will not demand taxes. If you were a US citizen in the same situation, you would be taxed on the income. Now you might be able to deduct the Filipino tax money, but you’d still pay taxes to the US government (because the US government owns you as a slave).
And think about the Turkoglu deal – if that were true, no way would $3m make a difference.
Taxes? Why pay taxes? He can do what basketball greats like Delfino and Garbajosa did, and play in Russia, where no one cares if you pay taxes or not.
It seems that MLSE’s business model for the Raptors is to capture Toronto’s multicultural mix, and thus it makes sense for them to recruit stars outside the continent (what could be the other logic for huge contracts for AB and Turk?). And if one good NBA-ready European/Asian/Australian/Latino center that will be available next year, I don’t think BC will hold on to CB4.
I believe BC’s mandate is to maintain a competitive (meaning at least 35-wins or a lucky first round playoff) and entertaining team catering the market. But will probably never be a championship contender, but who knows? But that is just business folks – if it can fill the arena, maintain advertising revenue, and drive the fans wild from time to time (and keep RR comment section busy) – it should be able to maintain the bottom line very black. Go Raps Go.
*The conclusion is what we all knew already – if the decision were strictly financial, Bosh’s options would be limited to the Raptors or a team that could work a sign and trade*
You forgot the main money maker here though… endorsements deals. Playing in the states his name can (likely will) become more recognized (especially in a big market) resulting in nice contracts from Nike etc.
NBA salaries can be chump change compared to those endorsement deals.
He has an entire country that can endorse him here…I really think endorsement deals are largely a wash whether in the tdot or elsewhere…
The Knicks, Lakers & Bulls can out-match the Raptors on the endorsement deals front. The Lakers don’t need him. The Knicks are worse than the Raptors, and we wumped the Bulls. I hope he’s staying, but it’s going to take a trade for a very good swing who can play D to convince me that we can get past the first round. Right now, Turkoglu & Belinelli & DeRozan are not performing well enough. That’s got to change THIS year!!!!!!!!!!! And Jack has to up his game!!!!!!!!!!!
You must also remember that Canada is a hockey first country and the population is 10% (or so) of the US. Any one major city in the US is likely to have more B-ball fans than all of Canada.
Now consider all those fans across the US vs Canada. The difference in #s is ridiculous. Then think nationally televised games, wealth in the US etc.
The only advantage the Raps have is international coverage…. which could be extremely large but I would imagine alot of other countries are concentrating more on their players (ie. Bargs, Calderon etc.) than American players.
I dont see any chart? am I blind?
Great article, although the last line, “We can wait…and in the meantime, we can enjoy a very winnable back-to-back against Indiana and Charlotte!” was like rubbing salt in the wounds.
yeah i think this article was written a few daya ago maybe??? hahaha
Yea, sorry about that. Yesterday was a busy posting day for us. Fixed.
Great and really relevant article on the issue at hand. As far as money is concerned, it’s hard to say whether cash is enough to keep Bosh in Toronto. On the one hand, as was said in the article, Toronto has the added year and an extra 30 million that they can offer, but, and this is a big but, tax IS a big issue. The comments about dual tax aren’t incorrect. The tax laws in question relate to property taxes. In the case of a player like Bosh the relevance is in regards to property owned on both sides of the border. If an athlete playing in Canada owns property on both sides of the border then they are indeed taxed accordingly. If Bosh were to stay in Toronto, he would be paying close to %49 in property taxes. This is a huge issue and one which politicians in Canada have refused to discuss. For those who remember, this was one of the reasons Steve Francis cited in asking for a trade from Vancouver.
The biggest issue in the whole Bosh saga, which might swing his decision in the Raptors’ favor, is the expiration of the CBA following the 2011 season. We obviously all follow the NBA and we all certainly understand that player salaries have grown by astronomical proportions. When the CBA expires after next season, you can take it to the bank that the negotiations will not be quick or easy. David Stern will not be willing to allow the inflation of player salaries to continue. The NBA is not in the best situation financially, and owners cannot continue to pay players the sums being demanded right now. The proof is in the pudding. There are fewer guaranteed contracts in the NBA today than at any other point since the early years after the merger. Considering the fact that players EXPECT multi-million dollar contracts, it’s hard to see how the two side are going to be able to quickly come to a decision. If a lockout occurs and Bosh had signed elsewhere, he ultimately will be losing money. He loses his bird rights, he loses an extra year at 30 million and he loses the security that the Raps could give if he remained loyal to the team. In the event that Bosh signs with the Raptors they can include a guarantee that in the event of a lockout the Raptors would agree to pay him the contract in full. This is a guarantee that most other teams would not be willing to give.
Thanks for that Sunny. That is a HUGE incentive for Bosh to stay with the Raptors.
Income taxes are covered in the CBA.
The Raps can offer CB4 a bonus designed to make him equal for tax purposes.
Bosh is not a max player. He has not accomplished anything except stuffing his own personal stats. Zach Randolph, Elton Brand are 20/10 players but no one in basketball wants them. They do not make their team mates better around them. Bosh “looks” like a great player because he plays on a mediocre team and will always be a second banana/fiddle on another good team. Can’t deliver the goods (Playoffs – nets, magic, choking in the 4th quarter, rise up when required during a game, shouting at others on court–when his own play is questionable (shooting threes at crucial points during a game–trying to stuff personal stats).
Another more important issue is the decline of the US dollar and rise of the Canadian dollar. Toronto Raptors in the next one and half to two years will be able to pay more to any basketball player because of the decline of the the US dollar. This decline is not temporary but most likely permanent.
You’re wrong on the issue of the US/Canadian dollar. The NBA is an American league, all contracts are in American dollars. The only advantage for MLSE in the rising dollar is the fact that it costs them less to sign the players relative to the Canadian dollar.
That being said, Canadian teams (in all pro sports) have accounts set up for just such situations. When the Canadian dollar rises, these franchises buy American dollars en masse and store them in savings accounts for times when the Canadian dollar is weak. That way if the dollar were to see the bottom drop out then they would have a contingency plan to help pay the players and enjoy the massive financial losses which could result.
Just to give you an idea, a 10 cent dip in the Canadian dollar adds about 2 million dollars onto each ten million dollar contract. This seems relatively small until you factor in the size of the franchise’s payroll (players, coaches, management, trainers etc.)
Yes I know.
The MLSE can easily go over the tax because of the Canadian dollar advantage. Most people in the forex market are predicting the Canadian dollar to be above par by mid next year.
Firms don’t hoard US/Canadian dollars. They usually hedge against currency volatility.
Great article Blake
Caution, rant ahead:
I don’t think many of us have a concern that Bosh is good or bad for this team. I think undoubtedly, our team is much better with him than without. I ‘hope’ most people are with me to this point. Of course others believe that Bargnani is the way to success, and we need to pair him with a big center and move him to PF. This is another debate not appropriate for my coming rant.
My concern is whether dedicating that much money to Chris Bosh, will handicap our chances of building a championship contender. Can CB4 be for the Raps what Howard is for the Magic, or Duncan is for the Spurs? These are the only 2 big men in the league worthy of a max contract (though Duncan is old, he deserved it when he got it). Also, Howard still has tremendous upside given his physical ability.
The bottom-line: I think it is VERY difficult to find a big man worthy of a max-contract, because realistically the NBA is a guard-based game these days.
If I look at the Mavericks, I think to myself, I would offer the max to Dirk even though I don’t think he deserves it as a ‘max-money player.’ This is because I believe that with his style of play, his clutch-ness and passable D, I think it is possible to build a championship team with him receiving a max-contract. It requires the luxury tax, no doubt, and an owner who wants to win, but I think it is possible.
Is it possible for the Raps to build such a team? That answer, I just don’t know. Maybe it requires Andrea to be a 10 mil bench player? (I warm to the idea with each game played, btw – not a demotion, but give him some court time without Bosh so that teams get different looks when guarding. They could be a nice 1-2 punch throughout the game…maybe, no?). Maybe it requires Calderon to be traded for a less offensively aware player but who is better at D? Maybe it requires starting Wright? (an idea I have been on board with for a couple of weeks now, in order to establish ourselves early so that the refs won’t call touch fouls so quickly on us, because Wright has set a good tone). These are answers for Triano and Colangelo to figure out. Me, I don’t really know for sure, I am not an NBA coach.
Then, there is also the Atlanta Hawks to consider. We all saw that they had the pieces required to be a good team. I always wondered why they didn’t do better. They were a team always bound for a 7-game first round exit. In the end it just took patience and maturity over the course of a couple of seasons on the part of the players. They came together and played the brand of basketball they were capable of playing.
Is it the same with the Raps? I don’t know about you, but with what I am seeing from some of our players, it just seems like sometimes they can be bloody brilliant, and others they look like deer caught in the headlights. It comes down to whether you have the faith that a core of Calderon, Hedo and Bosh can be for us what Bibby, Johnson and Smith are for the Hawks. Throw in Bargnani (maybe playing most of his time without Bosh), and I think you have something.
Oh, and I have not given up on DeMar. To do that would be dumb so early. Read the Chisolm article to more or less sum up some of the reasons why his play has suffered. Couple this with the fact that I personally believe he has as much upside as any player drafted and you have a LONG-TERM project. It rests on his own work-ethic, his ability to reconstruct his shot, and serious hours practicing his handles. The future may not be so bleak for Raps fans.
Conclusion:
Bosh is our best player. If we don’t sign him, we better get a sign and trade. I think it is possible, with using the luxury tax, to build a good team around him. That 10 mil/year signing with Bargs hopefully is not incompatible with extending Bosh.
I tend to agree,I’ve been saying for a while now that I would like to see our 2 B’s spend some time apart.
When Bosh is on the floor …Option A….with JC,because Jose looks off Bargs 90% of the time
When Bargs is on the floor …Option A…with JJ.add a hustle and rebounder player like AJ and Marco.
Still too early for the “max talk”,I would like to see some more games…but and this is a big but,does Bosh bring us at least to the second round,and if not,why tie up 25 mil ?
Although I am warming to the idea of separating Bosh and Bargnani, I am not sure that we have an ideal floormate for either. I am thinking we need someone like a younger Rasho, a big body that can disrupt lanes is something more along what I had in mind.
I mean, JO wasn’t a bad ‘idea’ in terms of what JO was when he was younger. But he is more or less done as a player, and plays too far out and can’t even really jump anymore.
Nice post, too constructive to be called a rant.
The Hawks were always a team of top tier talent loaded with potential. The entire roster was a good example of players with incredible athletic range. Sure they lacked experience, but almost everyone on that roster could stay step for step with the top players in the league.
The Hawks model is very far away from the Raptors, which loved to pass on draft picks and youth for a chance to make it to the playoffs regardless of actual firepower once they got there.
Players on our roster are hired for a couple of years on a euro discount to make the team competitive, there is little thought given to grooming in new replacements. We usually look for re-treads.
Due to this Derozan is quite a surprise for the Colangelo methodology… when we actually need to WIN NOW, to retain a free agent, Bryan wants to try his hand at grooming a rookie. Not saying I dislike it, just that you wish this was done in the Parker/Garbajosa years. Kind of weird to see Bryan finally put in the effort to develop a prospect in his tenure that is not a #1 pick. Raptor fans are not used to seeing their own picks given this chance. Usually its euro players, D-leaguers or other teams draft rejects that eat up those roster spots.
I think most GM’s build around their best player and the other parts are spare parts that you find chemistry and cohesion with.
Bosh is your best player and Barg’s is the second fiddle. No one here is God so to say that a 25 year old and a 22 can’t win a championship is premature and none of you know what you speak of. You cannot tell the future.
Everyone else on the roster should be tailored to accentuate these two players abilities.
To put it bluntly, would you prefer to keep Bosh at $25Mil per year … or … would you prefer the Raptors invest in 3 players at $10-10-5 Mil per year..???
Just look at the reasonable salary structure of the Hawks and Bucks .. both playing “team” bball … and no beloved All-Star player for the t.h. fans to slobber over ….!!!!!
and when Joe Johnson and Al Horford need new contracts next summer you think they will ask for the same, or re-up?
by they way, the Raps had three years to put a team around Bosh making 15 mil. and we didn’t do it.
Always liked the Detroit model – 5 quality veteran starters.
sure, me too- but it only ever worked once in the history of the NBA.
you forget about the Spurs…. and Lakers…
Bosh is an all-star.
Bosh deserves to be making $15-18 million per season.
MLSE hasn’t shown any willingness – EVER – to go into luxury tax territory.
Signing Bosh to a max deal will cripple the Raptors within 3 years.
Best option is to trade him now for value to some team who needs him, can sign him, has assets that can make the Raptors equal or better than they are now.
Waiting to S&T is putting your fate in the hands of the player. No GM should ever, ever take that risk – it’s insane!
Bosh to NYK for Darko, Lee and Gallinari … and the NYKs dangle Bosh as bait for Lebron to sign up … ya think ..??!!!
Looks like you are suggesting assembling Italian National Team in Toronto? Bargnani, Belinelli, Gallinari…and all we need is Messina to coach. Add to the mix “clap defense” Jose, already retired Hedo, and Darko who does not even get call to play for Serbian National Team anymore. Wow!
Seriously, Messina would be major coaching upgrade over Triano. But, that’s another story.
FAQ
Are you sure you are not BabCock !!!! The deal you suggested can only come from the one and only brilliant mind of Rob the Babcock and no one else !!!
I just threw out that piece of meat for the forum to chew on, and I’m not committed to it. Specifically and realistically, who do you think we can get for Bosh, say from the Miami Heat who essentially have no salaries in the next season??
BC has established his Euro-core of players in Hedo, Jose and Bargs .. and this is what we are stuck with for the foreseeable future. To me this is a signal to Bosh that he is not really needed on the Raptors regardless of what you hear publicly from BC. It’s to BCs advantage to boost Bosh’s value so he can max out a trade for him.
From a MLSE business POV, the Raps will draw crowds from Toronto waving flags of Italy, Spain, Turkey … and all we need is flags from Croatia, Argentina, Germany to have a great multiculti international team … and the people will come to watch their ethnic hero regardless of the score. After all, they still come to watch the Leafs ….. and if they got Yi Jianlian, all of Markham would show up …!!!!
Being from Europe myself, I like seeing European players in the NBA. But, let’s be realistic – you rarely see any athleticism with European players. That translates into poor ability to defend and if you have majority of the team comprised of non-defenders, you have to shoot high percentage every night to win the games.
What happens when your shot is not falling, and you are unable to defend? What happens when your conditioning is so poor that you cannot play all 4 quarters? We have seen that many times this season.
Generally, if you have 1 European player in starting 5 defense may not be such a big issue (unless it is Calderon and gets burned by much quicker opposing point guards). Also, once they hit late 20s European players are retirement candidates (see Stojakovic, Turkoglu etc.) and their lack of conditioning and mobility becomes even more apparent.
European players? Yes, of course, but they should not make 75% of your starting unit.
Bosh should be traded immediately. There is no precedent for a S&T involving a max level player producing a significant return. 99% of these deals involve trade exemptions and mid-late 1st/2nd round picks.
In this scenario there is no trade market. Chris eliminates that by handpicking the team and it’s then up to Colangelo to facilitate a deal.
Another thing people are overlooking is the lottery protected pick currently owed to Miami. A first round playoff exit guarantees you lose both Chris and the 2010 draft selection. So basically you’ve just wasted an entire season and delayed the rebuilding process by 1.5 years.
sorry, it’s early, and maybe i’m not thinking straight…if the raps get bounced in the first round of the playoffs, true enough that bosh probably looks to leave. i wish people would get over the notion that this would cripple the franchise; even if they get NOTHING in return, they would have bosh’s expiring contract to work with. no, you don’t just replace an allstar, but if they do lose him, i hope to jeebus they don’t look to ‘quick-fix’ the situation (cough – hedo – cough) by trading for some over-the-hill former star (y’know, to draw in the crowds). if he leaves, then you look at your assets & continue to build. btw – every team is in a continual ‘re-build,’ just to greater or lesser degrees.
as for the pick – it would be in the mid teens at best. when was the last time a mid-teens pick became the building block for a franchise? you get good, solid role-players in those spots; if you’re lucky, or have patience & can stash a guy over in europe for a couple seasons, you might (MIGHT) get a marquee guy – 3-5 years down the road. on the exceptionally rare occasion, there are diamonds in the rough, but for the most part, guys picked outside the lottery (and, quite frankly, many lottery picks) are crapshoots, especially in the first few years.
“as for the pick – it would be in the mid teens at best. when was the last time a mid-teens pick became the building block for a franchise?”
That’s what I’m saying though. If you traded Bosh now and committed the rest of the season to developing DeMar, Belli, Amir, and any young talent we received for Bosh that pick could end up being in the top 5. The draft is our only chance at finding a franchise player to replace CB.
You spent the entire weekend talking about Chris Bosh? Thats some sad shit dude.
Great great article! its interesting to see the ‘real’ earnings of Chris Bosh as nominal usually hides alot of the story.
One question, do you think that Bosh earning U.S dollars in a Canadian city would affect his earnings? Because recently, the US dollar is about 10% higher than Canadian dollar, thus making Bosh’s purchasing power in Toronto marginally higher? Or is that not material?
With the difference of 17M between Toronto’s total contract number and the next tier of teams, i wonder whether bosh would just rather have the five year deal with another team and sign an extension that would more than make up for that 17M in the sixth year over the same period of time.
I think Bosh is facing a choice between “being a big fish in a small pond or a small fish in a big pond”
There is ALOT of talent out there that would drown Bosh as much on the boards as on the bench. Most teams are relatively more seasoned as a unit than our Raptors and they would just as soon swallow him whole than to give him the limelight against the back-drop of their own contract talks.
Raptors have yet to hit their stride. And hit it they will, I’m sure with the talent there is to work with. But the coach canNOT play FOR them. Wed’s loss against the Bobcats was strictly mental sloppiness. I dunno WHAT the hell they were thinking. Everything they did right the game before was lost to over-confidence. Instead of building on it to earn the win it looked like they were assuming it would just happen.
Bosh can’t carry the Raptors by himself, but he can lead them. Raptors can’t carry any deadwood if they’re going to take ANY lead this season.
Bosh can still ask for a sign and trade to a good team, the Raptors being able to offer him the most money means nothing.
actually, the fact that the raps can offer him the most money is the only reason a sign & trade is an option.
I really hate it when a team can “buy” a championship, like the Celtics did with KG and Allen. If very large market teams are allowed to buy up all the max money players, that will create a two if not a three tiered league, which will ultimately be it’s demise.
I think the NBA should have instituted a league rule whereby max or near max money players can only get short term contracts of say 3 seasons and then they must either reduce their salary or trade them. That would better circulate the top players and create a fairer situation within the NBA.
As it is now, the NBA is going into the crapper with the upcoming 2010 max money bazaar …. believe it.
Any team can “buy” a championship. It’s true that big market teams have it easier, but all a team needs is a rich owner that’s willing to spend to win. Dallas, San Antonio, Cleveland and Denver aren’t traditional big markets, but their ownership is willing to go into the luxury tax and as a result, their teams have been successful. You don’t think MLSE has enough money to splurge on more than one max player? If anybody is willing to come is the real question.
MLSE would defeinetely spend well over the cap if it makes financial sense (ie. will viewership, ticket sales… especially inflated playoff tickets, etc. outway the cost of salaries). They are intelligent business men, never doubt that.
However, in order to do that you need to ensure a large, reliable following. Question is can you get that in Canada with hockey being the sport of choice? Thats why BC targeting a international following COULD be just the ticket (longer term) to getting MLSE to spend.
Alright, I’m relatively young, but with youth comes different ideas to the whole 2010 Summer Free Agent Bonanza. Honestly, this whole money talk is confusing, so let’s cancel the money talk, for now. My opinion on this is that, Bosh is not a “franchise” player. It is really hard for a big-man to be the main go to guy, though few have done it and succeeded. Let’s take Dwight for example, you may disagree but I would not sign him to the max contract. But a Dirk I would sign to a max contract, because late in games you can go to him; how many buzzer beaters come in the post? the NBA is a guard heavy game, if your guards are not above par, your screwed, especially for teams like Orlando, Mavs, Spurs. Honestly the problems I see for the raptors is the guards. DeMar is not a lost cause, I honestly think he has the most upside in his draft class, but that’s going to come with countless hours in the gym. We need to let go of calderon, though now that’s gonna be very hard, i always questioned the raise calderon was given. But is it so hard to imagine us luring at least one “superstar” free agent in ‘10 while somehow keeping Bosh?
Ahhh .. Young(and foolish)Buck …. No US-bred “superstar” will come up North to Canada to ply his trade … because the folks up here are not his folks … and playing with a bunch of Euros is not exactly his “dream” team.
Toronto had it’s chance with Vince and blew it … and that reputation has damned Toronto as an undesirable NBA destination. The MLSE realized that and brought in BC to craft a profitable Raptor team with an international flavour, regardless of it’s playoff chances.
The only hope for the Raptors is to assemble a mix of top Euros and blue collar US NBA types who want to play rather than sit on the bench of some US NBA team. The only other recourse is high draft picks and that means a poor past season.
Vocal tribal honking fans expect the best from the Raptors because they yearn for a “championship” team .. even one that was blown up last season and 12 of it’s players were post-2008 with only a core of 3 players (Jose, Bargs, Bosh) pre-2008. Nobody can create a “winner” out of that mess.. because it’s a long term development situation ….!!!
It will be several seasons before the Raptors are playoff contenders … particularly if BC trades Bosh mid-season …. believe it.
“I honestly think he has the most upside in his draft class.”
Dude, have you seen Brandon Jennings or Tyreke Evans play? And honestly, I think Tyreke has even bigger upside than Jennings…
a question: does ‘upside’ = ‘ceiling?’
don’t listen to FAQhole, there is intellect in what you’re saying. y’see, FAQ suffers from an extreme inferiority complex that for some reason he transposes to the city of TO, the country of Canada, and the raps in particular. it’s not as though i feel TO is some ideal destination spot for american ballers, but i dismiss the notion that NO ONE WILL EVER SIGN HERE. just a little over dramatic…and too easy.
as to your points – demar may well have the most upside, but that may be because he has so far to go. manyak pointed out two players with ‘greater upside,’ in his opinion, but the fact is, both those guys are already showing themselves to be exceptionally gifted – how much higher can they realistically go? hence, they might not have as much upside as demar. that being said, they have a higher ceiling, which i feel is different than upside.
and no, i don’t think it’s realistic that the raps are able to retain bosh & sign a top-tier FA – because they don’t have the space to do so, unless they’re able to clear out their roster for expiring contracts b/w now & the end of the season.
I agree with all of you saying Bosh can’t do it on his own.
It’s just that simple. So…unless we can bring in some guys who can play defense or somehow turn our starting five into a defensive/offensive unit, I would say first round exit is the best case scenario which will definitely influence Bosh’s decision to stay or not regardless of how much we can pay him.
In the end, we need to get him help and have the signs of a contending team.
That and obviously whatever salary we offer him is what we need to do. Plain and simple.
Analyze it to the death, this is what it comes down to.
Right now, if Free Agency started, he’d be gone in a heartbeat.
Money does have a lot to do with it, but everyone wants to win, or at least have an opportunity to do so.
But not with a team that can’t play defense.
Let me guess, we lost against the NETS and MAGIC in playoffs because of the staff surrounding Bosh. Get real. Our franchise player choked and was irrelevant in the series. Why is Toronto so worried that he is going to leave. Go ahead, its not like we have had any success with him in Toronto.
We have tried a lot of different combinations with him and none have worked. Maybe you should be asking is Chris Bosh the centre piece for the team or a complimentary piece. He is not going to lead us to the promised land.
We lost to the Nets and Magic cause they were better teams with better players.
There are 12 players typically on a basketball team. I’m unaware of any team that has won an entire series with one player.
Have you seen that?
If Bosh is leaving…hopefully he agrees to a sign and trade. I don’t want Bosh to leave unless both he and lebron join the Heat.
Bosh is playing good, because of the presence of Bargs and Hedo. two talented players that aren’t afraid to share the ball but demand attentions from the defense.
If we bench Bargs, the defense collapse around Bosh. It’s an old movie, wit a smitch flavour.
Houston doesn’t have stars on the field. but they win anyway. I don’t understand , Isn’t this a superstar driven league?
we should pursue the detroit model. 5 teammate. not 1 superstar that doesn’t play defense or doesn’t pass the ball.
houston defends, rebounds & works on fundamentals & intangibles. i’m thinking that may have something to do with it.
Houston also has the brightest FO in the league. They can find no-name players who actually produce when part of a cohesive unit.
too bad their big name players tend to blow
This is in response to the line “The Raptors get no currency exchange”, from Larry Coon’s FAQ:
“…the league added a regulation to help neutralize the tax disadvantage of Canadian teams. All teams are permitted to offer a signing bonus of up to 20% (see question number 62). For U.S. residents in Canada, this bonus is taxed at just 15%. Using this bonus, Canadian teams can nearly achieve tax neutrality.”
I’m just severely bothered now that this team is left with very little guaranteed starting lineup defensive talent/effort. Maybe Bosh deserves his money, but the entire core that stands around Bosh is just defensively flawed and it won’t ever contend the playoffs, yes I said “no playoffs”. Bargs would look good and be happy if he was in Channing Frye’s position in Steve Nash’s system in PHX, and am I implying a trade? Dunno… Now I know how wade feels, except our team does not have a crappy bench.