It is easy to get overexcited, as Raptor fans, about Chris Bosh’s performance through the first 12 games. There are reasons to be guarded, to be pessimistic, or to deem his success suspect thus far.
At the same time, it’s easy, as Raptor fans, to let his success thus far underwhelm you, to take the attitudes expressed above and use them to completely discount the tear that CB4 has been on.
Curiously, it’s a tough balancing beam for Raptor fans when Chris Bosh bursts out of the gate so hot, posting would-be career high numbers nearly across the board, dominating games for longer stretches than we’ve seen, and generally leaving fans asking for even more, especially late in games. After all, there are reasons to think Bosh won’t keep the pace up, reasons to think Bosh is guilty of the “contract year statistical inflation,” and, of course, the fact that the Raptors are 5-7 while Bosh has been lighting it up.
With all of that in mind I wanted to take a look at Bosh’s torrid start to 2009-10 and try to determine if it’s something he’ll be able to keep up moving forward, and how I should really feel about it as a Raptor fan. But first, I have to set the table for the discussion by looking at the numbers.
Obviously, Bosh has been a monster so far. If you’re a Hollinger Disciple, you think he’s been the second best offensive player in the league so far, adding 4.1 wins (according to EWA), second only to King James (4.8) and ahead of names like Chris Paul (3.9), Dirk du Soleil (3.5), and, well, every other name in the league. Despite the glowing review provided by the Statistical Revolution, there are those with counterarguments to Bosh’s success, namely:
He is Always a Quick Starter, He’ll Fall Off
This seems to be the public consensus, yes, but I’m not sure why. The chart below shows his career splits on a month-by-month basis, and it really doesn’t tell us anything. After six years, Bosh’s month-by-month performance appears to be fairly consistent, with the ebbs and flows being somewhat random. January is a strong scoring month and February is a weaker rebounding month…no conclusions to be drawn there.
I think some of the opinion may be due to recency bias, as Bosh started very strong last year before tailing off. While his February numbers were pretty bad, most numbers were in line with what we’d come to expect from Bosh. The shooting percentages show a potential mid-season fatigue, which Bosh himself has admitted to, but otherwise it seems a very strong November raised expectations too high.
Is this season a repeat of that? Perhaps, but I’d tend to think not. For one, Bosh has the free agency motivation, as terrible as it is to assume that of a player (but let’s be real). Additionally, Bosh has been far more vocal in the media about wanting to be better, going as far as admitting resentment that he would be left out of the discussion about the league’s best players. Motivation can wane as the season wears on, but with Bosh having several motivating factors it seems unlikely. Finally, and most importantly, Bosh is physically much more capable of handling an 82-game season with consistency this year than in years passed. The extra weight and bulk he added should make him more durable and less susceptible to prolonged fatigue-related cold streaks; the summer off from USA Basketball couldn’t have hurt, either.
As he becomes more acclimated with teammates and the daunting-thus-far schedule gets easier, it isn’t difficult to envision Bosh’s numbers increasing, let alone staying the same.
He Disappears When it Matters
I’m not sure where I’d find a strong statistical argument for or against this point, but anecdotally it seems fair. However, this is the plight of having a big-man as your go-to-guy, and it’s the reason the Raptors brought in Hedo Turkoglu to be the de facto finisher. Look, I’m not saying Bosh shies away (the team may just fail to get him the ball in an appropriate manner in crunch time), or even that this would be a problem…it’s just something that is definitely ‘out there’ with Raptor fans.
The Team is Still 5-7
Well, true…umm, yeah. They are. Tough schedule? Road-heavy? Seven out West? All true. At the same time, there haven’t been a steady stream of defensive juggernauts in their way, so Bosh has had his chance to get numbers in the flow of a high-scoring (albeit not a high-paced) offense. One player can’t be expected to shoulder the whole load (or is that what “Max Contract” means?), and the Raps have been plagued by inconsistencies. Additionally, Bosh isn’t exactly a defensive stopper, and this discussion is about his offensive game more than his overall game.
So…my point here is…we can probably use this as an argument against Bosh to a degree, but a lot about the tough road trip was out of one player’s hands.
He is Just Playing Well for Free Agency
Wouldn’t you be? I’m kidding, but as I mentioned earlier, Bosh has multiple motivational factors working for him – playing time on the US team, free agency, natural competitiveness, and, new to the scene, ego. Bosh very obviously wants to do well and wants to be as good a player as he can be…if that’s magnified because of a looming free agency, so be it. Bosh playing better can only mean good for the Raptors, whether it’s in terms of team success, Bosh re-upping with the team, or his potential value in an offseason sign-and-trade. The better Bosh is, the better off the Raptors are, there’s no way around it.
So collectively we have no emotion to feel but joy at Bosh’s start on the offensive end. There are 70 games left to nitpick at his defense, his role in crunch time, or the potential bitch-slap to Toronto at year’s end. In the meantime, Bosh is putting up enormous numbers that don’t seem likely to slide, and he’s helping to make this one of the most exciting (if not frustrating) Raptor incarnations ever.
33 Raps
Without him us and the Nets would be fighting for John Wall.
Bosh has been the only big man who’s been the “go-to-guy” for his team. No other team has asked a big to play this role. And there’s a reason why team’s don’t rely on a big to be a go to guy: big simply aren’t equipped to create their own shot. This is why go to guys are always smalls.
Asking Bosh to be a go-to player was always asking too much from him, or any player his size playing his position. But this fact doesn’t mean that Bosh isn’t a max/franchise player.
I agree 100%. Look at San Antonio. Duncan has hit some big shots, but when the game is on the line, Ginobili and Parker have the ball in their hand. The same thing can happen here.
Kaman is the goto guy with Clippers and Amare is the goto guy with the Suns.
But I do think that we will continue to less and less of the big guy being the goto guy as the game as become wing and 3 point orientated.
Steve Nash is the go to guy in Phoenix… whether its the start of the game or the end. Amare just tends to be the receipient of Steve Nash’s ridiculously good play making.
You’re wrong. Amare was behind both Nash and Hill last year when it came to taking last minute shots. This year, nobody has stepped up as the go-to guy, with everyone taking about the same number of shots.
Kaman, however, has stepped up this year, but last year he was far from the first option (behind Davis, Thorton, Gordon, etc.).
If Amare took more last minute shots than Nash last year, it’s no wonder they didn’t make the playoffs. When the Suns do well it’s Nash taking the shots, or creating for others. When they were winning, it was alway Nash with the ball in his hands at the end.
And the Clippers have a worse record than the Raptors. They would be advised to hand the ball to Davis or Gordon in crunch time.
Does Dirk count as a go-to big?
You’re right. Dirk is the one big who is head and shoulders above all other bigs when it comes to important minutes. Last year, he attempted over 30 field goals (and 16 free throws) per 48 minutes during clutch situations, right up there with Wade, LBJ and Joe Johnson. Only Kobe took more (almost 40 fga/48 minutes).
At the same time, we have been trading away picks to show Bosh that we want to win now. That is a lot of talent passed up on, justt o keep Bosh happy.
Colangelo traded away Roy Hibbert (who could have just as easily been Robin Lopez or Alexis Ajinca), and a future protected first round pick. That’s it. One player. The only other first round pick the Raptors traded away in their entire history was in 2007, which was a deal made before Bosh was even drafted, and netted Jared Dudley.
So what you’re saying is that the Raptors passed up on Roy Hibbert and Jared Dudley. Maybe your idea of a lot of talent and mine is different.
Blake, you always write my favorite articles, keep it up.
Bosh has been absolutely amazing this season. Seriously, he’s had an MVP-level start. Gotta be thrilled.
Nice article. Good point – “is that what a max contract means?” To put it another way – as a team we will have roughly $20 million per season to spend to improve. What’s the best way to do that? Bosh or players we can get for Bosh? That’s not even considering that the decision may be out of Colangelo’s hands if Bosh wants to leave.
Any GM has justify decisions to owners when it involves $20 million or so. And if we have a .500 season, creeping into the playoffs and getting bounced the first round I think it’s reasonable as an owner to question how we expect our results to be different signing Bosh as a marquee player for $120 million or so for 6 years. Maybe Colangelo has an answer for that should it get to that point, just saying – reasonable questions. And one I’d love to know the answer to if we re-sign Bosh.
You hint at a salient issue. If we look back to when we flipped McGrady in a sign and trade, well… does anyone even remember where that 1st round pick went? Bosh might fetch more, but anyone who thinks we’ll get back Bosh’s weight in talent is deluded. And even if we traded him before the season is over, he won’t likely fetch that much either without a guarantee that he’ll resign with that team next season.
If we simply let him go, we won’t have $20 million to play with. Not with the decreasing salary cap.
Being called the RuPaul of big men probably didn’t hurt the motivation to do well this year. That would sure get my ass to the gym!
Anybody else having trouble signing into the live chat? It keeps saying it can’t make a connection..
Same here.
Yup, I’m running into the same problem. Posted a comment in the game thread on the forums on it.
The room is overheating. Be back in a few.
Oh my f’n god.
8 Fucking turnovers.
Just calm down Demar, better yet no more Demar.
Raptors are playing LIKE SHIT!!
Not so fast my friend…
They SHOULD be beating the shit out of this team.
No Haslem, No Q.R., no Quinn.
We should be better than they are when they are fully manned.
You damn straight we should be up by 20 at half.
Lets go for 30 and embarrass D-Wade’s always foul-call getting ass.
If Jack is the “worst signing of the off season” then Bellineli is probably the best, but you won’t here ESPN give a Toronto team that kind of credit….
not totally true- although alot of ESPN guys do overlook Toronto, some guys like Marc Stein or David Thorpe (and even Hollinger from time to time) have been pretty pro Toronto over the years.
but as good as Bellineli has been, Crawford with Atlanta is looking like the best (not a huge deal) off season signing so far.
Crawford is looking awesome. But Bellinelli is making 1.5 mil this year, that is huge…
great piece Blake. love the mix of stats and analysis.
I’ll say it right now – who else had a heart attack when Bargnani, who just made a clutch 3, gave up another 3 pointer and passed to Jack to shoot the 3 instead?
Luckily, Jack was on today.
Whoa, what a heart-stopping game.
Good win. Although the turnovers were extremely high and kept Miami in the game, Armstrong rightly pointed out that the Raps are normally a low-turnover team.
Hate to gripe after a win but the turnovers and second chance points was atrocious. That shoulda been a blowout but we get a close one. With as many players sitting out for Miami this team is not there yet.
Better pull up the socks if Raps want to win on Sunday…
Just to give some optimism for bosh’s start … look at the numbers from the “MVP! MVP!” start of last year. Less points last year and it took him 40+ minutes a game to do it. No way he could keep that pace. He’s putting up better numbers in just over 35 min/game this yr. Should hopefully last a bit longer