5-7 after 12. If you had given me that record on October 27th I would’ve gladly taken it. 6-6 would’ve been just terrific but 5-7 is just a missed shot at the buzzer away from that, so I can be convinced that this is an acceptable record given the early schedule. The defense on the other hand is not, and it’s far more worrying than the record. When will the bleeding end? Tonight against Miami? Sunday against Orlando? Nobody knows, and I’m not even sure whether the day will come that this unit will be an above average defensive team. There just hasn’t been a precedent of a team being this poor defensively and suddenly turning it around without a personnel change.
Michael Grange’s piece yesterday carved open Jose Calderon and rightfully so. Calderon’s defense on Williams beyond awful, the one trend that keeps manifesting itself is Calderon’s insistence to “pick up” his check in the backcourt for some reason. By “pick up” I don’t mean forcing him to give up the ball or put him under any sort of pressure that might result in a charge, but to just stay on his side like he’s setting himself up to catch a lateral pass. This allowed Williams to glide in to the paint all the way to the rim or use a screen whose job was already half done by Calderon’s bad positioning. Whatever it was, it spoke of defensive unpreparedness which is not what I expected given the pre-season talk.
The Raptors are playing 5 of their next 7 at home (MIA, ORL, IND, @CHA, @BOS, PHO and WAS) so there’s a chance to build some momentum. Miami, Indiana, Washington should be straightforward victories at home; Phoenix and Orlando should be 50-50 games given how we played against both teams earlier in the year. Winning in Boston is rare for us and the Bobcats compete at home, we should aim for 5-2, anything less would be a disappointment. This team, fans and media need to shed the loser mentality that we’re supposed to lose to the better teams in the NBA; after 12 games of gel-time it might be a good time for the club to show what they really are and prove the doubters wrong. Last year I said I’d reserve judgment till 20 games and when the time passed, nothing got better and it turned out that the team was crappy from game 1. Let’s hope this year is different.
Tonight it’s back home against the 7-4 Heat who are not very good. Of their 7 wins, five are against the scum of the NBA – Knicks, New Jersey (bailed out by Wade at the buzzer), Washington twice and the Pacers. They also managed to somehow beat Denver and Chicago at home but lost to every other half-decent team – Phoenix, Cleveland, OKC and Atlanta. They’ve only played 3 road games and were blown out in their last two outings by OKC and Atlanta. Despite their reasonable record, the Heat aren’t aiming for anything this season, they’ll be making their mark this summer. Barring a Wade explosion, we should win this one. We better, or I might have to unleash the types of posts that were only too common around these parts last December.
Matchups
The Big: Bargnani is shooting 14-39 FG and 2-10 3FG in his last three games, all losses. The rebounding has been better at 7 rpg over this little stretch but his overall defensive play has been poor. He’s been outplayed for four straight games by Chris Kaman, Nene, Channing Frye and Andrei Kirilenko. What to do? Not much except hope he’s hitting his shots, that’s all it is with this guy, you just hope he’s accurate because if they’re not falling, the chances of him making up for it using other facets of his game are slim to none. So Andrea, you better make some shots! I realize this is a cop-out analysis of the guy but usually I’m only happy with his play if he’s shooting above 60% for the game, that’s the only way its worth it. Lately he’s gone back to settling for that pull-up jumper from 21 feet which might be the worst shot any Raptor takes (including Wright), especially when it’s coming against Kyrylo Fesenko. So yeah, shots. Make them. Against O’Neal. Who can’t move. At all. He is averaging 15.5 pts and 8.5 rebs in his last two games and is shooting 56% for the season. Wait a minute! He’s got better numbers than Bargnani!
BTW, Joel Anthony is averaging a whopping 2.1 pts and 2.4 rebs in 15 minutes of play. I wonder why Pat Riley was hanging on to him in those O’Neal/Marion negotiations.
The Strong: Chris Bosh is playing just great and will have a huge advantage against Beasley whose defensive work has been called into question too often in his young career. However, let’s not forget that lately there’s another big man who’s starting to show a pulse – Amir Johnson. In his last six games he’s averaging 5 pts and 6 rebs on 60% shooting in 20 minutes of play. He’s the only player other than Bosh who brought his game to all four stops on the west coast; he’s acting on hustle and his been the second best big over this stretch. He’ll be getting a real test against Udonis Haslem tonight if the latter manages to suit up, he missed Wednesday’s game against Atlanta with a strained left shoulder.
The Skill: The Heat go as Dwayne Wade goes and he’s had a bit of an odd year so far, the scoring is there at 27.6 but the man has turned into a “high volume shooter”, never quite understood what that meant. It takes him more shots to score the same amount of points? I don’t know, but he’s shooting just 43% this year (a miserable 27% from three). DeMar DeRozan might start but Antoine Wright should be playing him 90% of the time, I’d be reluctant to try Belinelli on him just because playing against somebody like Wade wears you down and it might take away from his offense. With Wright you don’t have to worry about that, he doesn’t have any offense. Sharp-shooter Daequan Cook needs to be held in check, he’s usually the beneficiary of Wade penetration so if you stop one thing, you stop the other. I wonder what strategy Triano will use against Wade, switch on every screen like he did against Phoenix?
The Point: Second year man Mario Chalmers has only crossed into double-digits twice this year and that was scoring 11 points a couple times. I saw a the Heat games against OKC and Atlanta, and he looked pretty bad, turning it over 7 times under very little pressure. He is quick, though, and if played incorrectly can burn you. Sometimes players seek out matchups on the calendar and I’m sure every point guard in the league looks at the Raptors and sees Jose Calderon and thinks, here’s a guy I could get some points against. In this case however, it should be Calderon thinking that, not Chalmers.
The Wing: Did you know Quentin Richardson played for the Heat? Well, now you do. Not only does he play, he plays 29 minutes as a starter which shows you their depth at the position. Hedo Turkoglu might want to dress up for this one because he’ll have an advantage against anyone they put on him – James Jones, Dorell Wright, Daequan Cook and of course, Q-Rich. None of those guys are shot-creators so he’ll feel a lot less pressure to defend than he has the last week and a half.
Rankings
| Raptors | Heat |
|---|---|
|
SRS: -1.11 (20th of 30) Pace Factor: 92.6 (14th of 30) Offensive Rating: 114.5 (1st of 30) Defensive Rating: 116.4 (30th of 30) |
SRS: 2.97 (10th of 30) Pace Factor: 90.5 (27th of 30) Offensive Rating: 104.8 (19th of 30) Defensive Rating: 102.1 (9th of 30) |
More in the game thread including latest injury news.
Prediction
The Raptors are laying 3.5. They say the first game back from the coast is always tough but I’m not buying it. Visser’s sim says 99-88 Raps and I concur, we’ll beat up on the Heat and I’ll enjoy it very much at tonight’s Raptor Fan Friday at Sports Centre Cafe near Yonge St./St. Clair. See you there at 7PM.
72 Raps
Toronto 131 – Miami 114
Bargnani 25p-6r
Bosh 24-14r
Turk 16-5-5
Calderon 14-10a
DeRozan 14-7r
Belinelli 14-4a
AJ 10-9r
Weems 8-6r
Jack 6-7a
—
Wade 40-10-5
lol , thats a dream game for the raptors
everyone gets great stats
All I gotta say is Jose and JJ better wake their sorry asses up. Jack especially, enough of him looking like he doesn’t give a sh*t, we brought him in and BC acted like he was gonna put this team into the second round of the playoffs. When I saw his press conference this off-season I even bought into the hype, now I really hope he starts to break out sooner rather than later.
We are never going to be above average defensive team with this crew.
But it doesnt matter as we are one of the top offensive ones. Look at Atlanta (leading the league). They are average defensive team (16th in points allowed), but very good offensive team (3rd in points scored per game). Or Phoenix (2nd in the league) who are worse defensively than us (27th, we are 26th), but are the second best team in scoring.
So I dont think we have to be a top defensive team to be a good team. Our offense is good enough to carry us a long way. Hey it wont win the championship, but anyone looking for that after being a lottery team last year was crazy.
Of course it would be nice to get from bad to decent defensive team, but I think that actually is possible. Above average, no way.
And as thats how the team is constructed (offensive team that relies on shooting), we are bound to have some major let downs. But on the other hand we can suprise good team every now and then too. And if we can get that defense to be consistently decent, we are going to have a pretty good year.
I choose you, WILL SOLOMON. Oh wait.
Wait, WILL SOLOMON is evolving…… Congratulations! Your WILL SOLOMON evolved into a JARRETT JACK!
Okay I’ll admit it. I laughed.
ROFLCOPTER
well played poiter. well played.
LOL!!!!! Classic and so random
Well, my Belli-zard can counter your Jarra-Jack
I don’t get the reference.
I’m old enough to have the 80s and 90s covered. Is it a reference from the 70’s or something?
Pokemon..guess you don’t quite have the 90’s covered after all..
We stop Dwayne Wade, we win. But the problem is no one on our roster can stop him.
there are few rosters in the league with players who can “stop” dwyane wade
there are no rosters in the league with players who can “stop” dwyane wade
Let Wade score 40, and stop the others instead
There are no others, this isn’t the Suns. I think we’ll need to stop/slow down Wade to win this. He’s totally willing to take 35 shots if need be and singlehandedly keep Miami in the game. Antoine Wright’s defense better come in handy today because Wade v DeRozan/Belinelli is no contest. It’ll be interesting to see how Triano handles this.
Wright’s to be banged up. Have we heard if he’ll play tonight?
Hedo’s a go …. Wright’s out.
Courtesy of Matt Devlin:
“Hedo is a go tonight…Wright will miss his 2nd straight game.”
Link: http://twitter.com/RaptorsDevlin/status/5894742119
Weeeeeems!
isnt this going to be wrights third straight game missed?
den, utah and now miami
He replaced Hedo in the starting line-up in Denver. So this is his 2nd game missed now.
you know whats funny …
the chances of wade scoring 200 points in a game are probably higher then the chances of jose winning the defensive player of the year award .
It’s going to be interesting to see O’Neal versus Bargnani.
Bargs, summon the inner-Brook Lopez, and beat JO.
tonious, Bargs can never be or will ever be a Brooke Lopez. Just wish we can get the Brooke guy.
…and Brooke Lopez can never be or will never be a Bargs.
So Memphis has won 2 more and the circus is over for them. Just mind boggling what were they thinking.
Looks like we should have taken Jennings with the 9th pick…that kid is tearing it up!
This situation is very similar to us taking Bargnani. There was no consensus choice at #9 and when we picked DeRozan nobody threw a tantrum and said we should’ve picked Jennings. The only team I was surprised at that passed up Jennings were the Knicks who actually needed a PG.
Also, it’s way too early to make a statement like that. Jennings is playing on team where he can take a shot anytime he likes, the situation is different with DeRozan where he has Bosh, Calderon and Hedo ahead of him in the pecking order on offense. (Probably Jack too).
exactly. with redd out (again), and losing CV & sessions, they really don’t have many (any?) legit offensive options (now bogut’s out again too, though he ain’t exactly an offensive tour de force). jennings, to his credit, has stepped up big time. it’d be one thing if he were putting up these numbers with the team playing like shit, but they’ve actually been pretty good so far, and he’s THE reason for it. still…let’s hold off on the ticket to springfield just yet…
poor roko…can’t get PT playing behind jose & losing minutes to will the swill last year…can’t get PT playing behind jennings OR luke f’n ridnour this year (on a team with ZERO expectations).
i’m pretty sure if derozan was on the bucks he would not score 55 points
Could of, should of, would of …. what are you going to do about it? :(
Would I love him here? Absolutely, but considering how apparently difficult Jennings was to assess from his pre-draft workout sessions (mostly pertaining the the attitude/mental side of things), most GM’s and scouts from around the league thought he was definitely a risk to pick at the time. A risk that’s proven to be excellent for Milwaukee, but a crapshoot at the same time.
True, but why was he considered a risk?
Cause he didn’t pass his SAT’s and went to Europe to play ball?
GM’s that were down on him or his journey into the NBA created the risk for him.
If he had of been able to be drafted directly out of h.s. would he have still gone 10th?
It can be argued he would have gone considerably higher as he was a top prospect coming out of a high profile high school.
yes, there was the SAT thing. going to europe probably didn’t help (it made it seem like he was running away from an issue); the fact he was almost a complete non-factor for his euro club (the reasons for which i’m sure were somewhat out of his control) didn’t help either. even on draft night, wasn’t he the dude who didn’t want to be in the green room in case he slipped, so he stayed away entirely, and then showed up 20 minutes after being drafted so he could get his pic taken w/ stern? now he’s the media darling, lighting it up on the court & buying sensible cars…and that makes all the other things disappear. GM’s can only go on what has already happened in making their assessments, and since the most reliable predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour…well, it isn’t overly surprising he slipped a bit.
of course, when we use the term ’slip,’ we’re already acknowledging that he should have gone higher, which is probably silly to do as well, since it’s entirely too early to make such a judgement. it takes time to evaluate any player, so in 2-3 years, maybe #10 will turn out to be the exact correct spot for him…or maybe he’ll flame out & be considered a bust. remember all those draft pundits who thought the texans were nuts for picking williams over bush & young? and then they all thought the texans were geniuses because bush & young haven’t done much, and williams has been pretty damn good? and now are likely to think it was a mistake (again) because bush is doing ok on a good-great team & young seems to have rejuvenated his career, while williams is having a bit of a down year? it’s a ‘what-have-u-done-for-me’ lately world, where opinions & projections are always crystal clear, as long as they can be made after-the-fact.
He was the only player in the draft that already had NBA explosiveness. Every time I saw video of the kid, I knew he had what it takes. I just did not think it would manifest itself as fast as it has.
I would have been happy with the pick, but I am not sure I would have made it either.
You have to remember that the Euro league is a coaches league, players don’t stand out, they play within systems. A guy like Allen Iverson in his prime would be out of place in that league.
The NBA is geared around talent. Tactical coaches are a dime a dozen in this league, usually they are sitting as assistants with clip boards… the coaches that get the head coaching jobs are motivators who know how to get the last ounce out of a star player.
If something happens and we suddenly throw the drivers keys to DeRozen, what will happen then?
remember that he refused to work out for the raptors. that would be enough to pass at 9. maybe at 1, 2 or 3 you take a must-have talent, but it is tough to make that argument at 9.
What expectations are reasonable? The Raptors are good enough to dominate most of the teams in the NBA. And they have to be good enough to beat the best teams at a .500 rate. Otherwise it’ll be one series and done. NOT what we need THIS year!!
What do you want this year, a trip to the Finals? Let’s build, and if we lose a close playoff series to a good team then so be it.
Your expectations of ‘dominating most of the teams in the NBA’ are out of line with reality.
I’m starting to wonder if PG’s around the league circle their calendars for Toronto now. “Oh goodie, I get the match-up with Calderon that night.”
Ideal match-up for slumping PG’s to get out of their funks and for the elite ones to pad their stats. Poor Jose. ;)
Just kidding, Jose’s got Chalmers number tonight. Or at least I’m praying he does.
pretty sure it’s not just PGs.
prediction for tonight…they’ll assume chalmers stinks based on this year’s production to date, jose/jack will slough off him to help on the heat’s big-time low-post scorers (beasly, haslem, o’neal, anthony), leaving chalmers wide open to nail corner treys.
My point exactly. PG’s that shouldn’t have big games against us always have a tendency of having them. Not trying to be a “Debbie Downer” but the numbers don’t lie. ;)
that’s true, with a caveat: dig a little deeper into the numbers of the PGs who have played us so far this year. you may be surprised that they haven’t necessarily all be lighting up jose, based just on the numbers.
The Toronto Raptors “where giving unknown players, unknown teams career highs and being the pussies and nice guys of the NBA happens”. Lol.
I think you should back this up with some numbers
A friend emailed me asking why Raps were favored over the Heat tonight? I answered this … then thought I’d share … cuz sometimes, I think we need to remind ourselves …
Raps are favored, eh? hm. probably cuz, if one looks at the road trip they just finished, after being down to the Clippers by 22, they showed that they have enough going on to come back and beat them by fifteen (or whatever it was) … then, they had the Suns beaten at home, IF that last shot by Turkoglu stayed in the basket … then, still on the road, crossing time-zones back and forth, they travelled to mile-high Denver Tuesday, to face a team that had been resting and waiting just for the Raptors, since the previous Friday (four days) … and the Raps held their own quite nicely unTIL the second half … and then the next day against Utah – who (again) had been sitting around with nothing to really think about except playing the Raptors on Wednesday (on their 2nd of a b2b) since the previous Saturday (again, four days) … and even at that … while I fell asleep after the first quarter (which started out brutal for the Raps), when I woke up (game was over) I was quite surprised to see that the Raps had actually made a game of it … and (some have said) probably could’ve, maybe even should’ve won (and this is all with Bargnani playing with his head quite firmly up his own ass asshat-22713.jpg). so … maybe, somebody out there realizes that the Raps just might be better than their record suggests.
link that didn’t take … if it works this time.
http://media.urbandictionary.com/image/page/asshat-22713.jpg
Let’s hope your prediction of 5-2 for the next batch of games is as accurate as your hopes for the recent road trip were. I looked back and on October 25th you said, “it’ll be nothing short of a small miracle if we don’t get murdered in the first dozen games.” And on October 24th, “It is not inconceivable to think that this team will start the year 2-10. I’d settle for a 5-7.”
3-4 sounds about right for the next 7 games. Easy wins against the easy sleeper teams; losses against Phoenix,Orlando and Boston; and being eaten alive by the Bobcats courtesy of Gerald Wallace.
One more, on a different note …
The other day in Denver, when Bosh was really pissed at … something (refs? defensive effort? himself?), I found myself guessing that maybe it was Bargnani he was pissed at, for not doing what he’s plain-ole supposed to be doing. It got me thinking about what Bosh SHOULD be saying as team leader, to Bargnani. So, in the spirit of former captain of the Philadelphia Flyers – from days way long-ago, back when I followed hockey (which I pointedly do NOT, anymore) – Bobby Clarke, when he whacked Bill Barber hard across the legs with his stick, shouting, “we fucking need you out there!” (Barber went out and scored goals the next period), here’s what I think Bosh should be saying to Bargs: (picture in CAPS) “When are you going to get your head out of your ass and into this game for this team, once and for all and start playing with that talent you’re supposedly so gifted with?!! This team needs you to play like you want to WIN, right-fucking-NOW!!” … or something like that. Cuz maybe he needs to be shaken up. Like, hard. And who else to do it, but Bosh?
It couldn’t hurt.
My sense of it is that Bargnani is just “soft” and will probably always play that way except for maybe a game here and there. I just have not seen a competitive fire in him, at least not for more than a game here and there.
I think that by the time a player gets to the NBA their basic character is already set in stone. Yes they can improve their skill set and put up better numbers over time but if they come into the league soft they will probably play their entire career as a “soft” player.
Though I’m still having a difficult time coming to grips with that likely reality … I am almost ready to concede that a reality, it might well be. (Almost.) And it makes me a bit sad to even say that.
For today though, I’m gonna hope like the munching-honker-that-I-must-be that something happens to wake him up, in the most profound of ways. (I can’t help it.)
that’s what makes him sooo frustrating to follow…he’ll come out some games & it’s like something just ‘clicks,’ and you think, ‘wow, he’s finally got it, he’s putting it all together…it all happens so easily for him.’ it’s like that acura commercial, with the aussie dude driving down the highway, and he has an epiphany, a feeling that he’s experiencing a ‘perfect’ moment…and he’s aware that he’s experiencing it, enough to warn himself about not ‘losing’ it…and then his subconscious mind takes over, he thinks about what’s for dinner, and his perfect moment is over as quickly as it started.
that’s bargnani…brief teases of perfection around giant blobs of reality.
But his ceiling remains so high. I guess that means for a game from time to time. Havn’t seen anybody saying his was high reconsider. Yikes.
That’s funny cuz it’s pretty much what it is. But I keep waiting for those brief teases to extennndddd themselves … and eventually become the actual reality. like most of us do, I suppose.
Current Win Share Percentages
Player Minutes Win Share WS %
——————————————
Bosh 431 2.3 53.36%
Johnson 197 0.6 30.46%
Belinelli 229 0.6 26.20%
Calderon 392 0.9 22.96%
Bargnani 409 0.8 19.56%
Turkoglu 383 0.5 13.05%
DeRozan 215 0.1 4.65%
Wright 208 -0.1 -4.81%
Jack 279 -0.5 -17.92%
Win Share % = Win Share divided by Minutes X 100
Calculating Win Shares
I. Introduction
Stealing a page from baseball’s Bill James, I decided to attempt to calculate basketball Win Shares. This article will describe how I came up with the Win Shares system for basketball. If you believe that any attempt to attribute team success to individual players is an abomination, then read no further, as this article will be of no interest to you.
II. What is a Win Share?
Bill James developed his system such that one win is equivalent to three Win Shares. My system deviates from James’s system in three key ways:
1. In James’s system, one win is equivalent to three Win Shares. In my system, one win is equivalent to one Win Share.
2. James made team Win Shares directly proportional to team wins. In his system, a baseball team that wins 80 games will have exactly 240 Win Shares, a baseball team that wins 90 games will have exactly 270 Win Shares, etc. In my system, a basketball team that wins 50 games will have about 50 Win Shares, give or take.
3. James did not allow for the possibility of negative Win Shares. In his system, the fewest number of Win Shares a player can have is zero. In my system, a player can have negative Win Shares. I justify this by thinking about it in the following way: a player with negative Win Shares was so poor that he essentially took away wins that his teammates had generated.
cont on link
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html
Bosh is not like Kobe that brings out Andrew Bynum’s ass out like Kobe did last year. There are different levels of leaders. Lol.
For those John Hollinger wannabe’s, this is an interesting stat via Paul Jones Twitter account this morning:
“From John Rusin “the stat man” Raps are 6-15(.285)all-time in the 1st gm at home after a west coast trip of 4+ gms”
Oh goody. First no Wright to cover Wade. Plus Wade’s been taking heat (no pun intended) in the Miami media for his recent performances – so he’s probably pissed. And now you share this stat!
Don’t shoot me Raptomist …. I’m just the messenger. ;)
Wouldn’t dream of it Doc. Keep up the great work.
at least it ain’t 0%
If Wade gets 81, what happens next?
other than the earth imploding?
And if Bosh gets 55 rbs… then what?
and if calderon wins defensive player of the year … then what?
Shame about Wright. I was hoping he’d be around to try and throw Wade off his game a little.
Bad ref’ing is alot like a co-worker who schemes to get you fired … until this person is set straight you gotta treat it as just another challenge to your job. You focus on the job at hand, up your game and it forces you to deliver beyond what’s expected -better than expected to surmount this draw-back …it’s not fair, it sucks and it seems impossible to watch your back against things you have no control over.
Raptors losses are marginal enough to CLEARLY have been affected by peripheral issues.
We have 6 more games to the end of the month, a mental time-set to bring it all together … deal with the refs, work out the game, bench and coach strategies, heal the wounded and BOND as the potential power-house team that’s possible for us.
We’re just squeeking under the bar! There’s an element to each of the up-coming games that gives us an advantage. Time to bring it on home, boys!!
a big + 1.
In the book 7 Seconds or Less, which I’ve sure some of you have read thre is pretty interesting information about Ivaroni and his tendancy to limit a star’s player (Wade) ability to make his teammates better. He likes to let the star get his. We saw this in the Phoenix game. Nash and Stoudamire were allowed to score but players like JRich, Grant Hill, and Barbosa were non factors. I liked this strategy and hope we continue to employ it. Some nights someone will just have a ridiculous night and beat us but I like the idea of keeping the secondary players out of their comfort zone.
Jose Jose is he not able too pass the ball ahead? By doing this it allows the defence too set up. With bad d and too many jump shots,this year will be painfull too watch.