That was a killer game against the Suns. Like tennis, this is a game of inches. Had Hedo nailed that shot at the buzzer, the Raptors would have been 2-0 on this four game Western swing, 6-4 on the season, and heading into Denver on a three game winning streak. You can hardly blame this on Hedo though, he had already stuck two clutch shots to give the Raptors a lead with a few seconds left in the game. Coming out of a timeout, you would hope there was more planned then our boy taking his man one-on-one off the dribble, but there wasn’t, and he didn’t. We ended up with something that “we could build on.”
Whatever that means, I’m hoping we can build on it quick, because we just rolled into Denver. I’ve been dreading this one since the schedule was published. Last season, we dropped both games to them, 132-93 & 114-107, the former being the day Colangelo gave up on the season 17 games in (8-9). In fact, that first game was the type that no one talked about the next day. Everyone went to school/work, hung their head low, and when the subject of the Raptors came up, we all were like “they’re in Utah on Friday.”
There is one sub-plot tonight, the return of Joey Graham. Every last one of us was happy to see Jamario Moon jack and miss his jumpers against the Raptors when Cleveland came to town on opening night (I was laughing like a maniac the whole time, it was good to exorcise those demons). I’m hoping for the same tonight. Joey Graham was the last bad reminder of the Babcock era, every single time I saw him, all I could think about was what we gave up to draft him at 16 (Granger). I had heard good things about him early in the season, where he was supposed to start or something, but that didn’t work out. I fear the only way we see him tonight is if either team is losing badly, or at the end of quarters while Carmelo is getting pampered on the bench.
The Match-ups
The Point: After a horrible start, Jose seems to be back. Over his last 5, he is averaging 14pts and 7.6ast a game, about what we expect. His defense has improved some, but really, it’s not that good. After having to deal with Nash and Davis the last two, he gets to finish this trip on Chauncey and Williams. One elite PG after another. I don’t like this match-up at all for Calderon. Unlike the other two, Chauncey will make life for Jose hell on defense as well. This is going to be a full court ordeal for Jose, who is going to be pushed every which-way possible.
The Edge: Denver
The Skill: At some point this season, we will have to move DeRozan to the bench if he doesn’t bump it up a notch. He’s only playing 17 a game, but half of that comes at the start of the game when you’re feeling out your opponent and setting a tone for the rest of the game. Hardly the time to let your raw rookie get some burn. Tonight he gets Arron Afflalo, who has been a great addition to the Nuggets replacing Dahntay Jones in the starting five. We can expect Arron to attack the offensive glass, and slash to the basket. He’s also the only safe bet to leave on a double-team situation. He isn’t a lock down defender, so if DeRozan can keep active and run around the court, he can shake free. Hopefully DeRozan isn’t too cold to play.
The Edge: Denver
The Wing: Hedo had his first chance on Sunday to live up to the pedigree he came to the Raptors with, but fell short after hitting his first two clutch shots. I can deal with it, since he had a pretty damn good game before that. Sadly, his production comes in waves. He has a goodish/greatish game, then disappears for a game or two. He’ll have his hands full with Carmelo tonight to start with but look for Wright (if healthy) or Belinelli to switch at some point. Like Jose, Hedo will be tested on both ends of the floor, and even if he was healthy (dude keeps wincing…I hate wincing), this is not a favourable match-up. The fact that he isn’t 100% almost guarantees this to be a bad one.
The Edge: Denver
The Big: I’m just going to go on a limb and say that Chris should be able to handle Kenyon tonight. With the added muscle and the MVP caliber run so far, I have zero reservations. Doesn’t mean that this will be a walk in the park, though. Martin has a nose for the ball and as Jeremy from Round Ball Mining Company says “Martin can score, it just rarely looks pretty.” The match-up fully favours Bosh here, but we can’t sleep on Martin. He has hurt the Raptors in the past, making defensive stops in the dying moments of the game. He will rotate defensively on penetration, just have to find an open/waiting Bosh for the dish. Could be textbook.
The Edge: Toronto
The Strong: This just isn’t going to work out well for Bargnani tonight. Nene is a pitbull. An energy guy who is an efficient scorer. He always gets after it. Bargnani only has a size advantage here and that may be marginal since Nene is a big boy who is also equally quick. I just don’t see it. Frye dropped 20 on us on Sunday and all he did was stand on the perimeter waiting for a pass. Nene is going to earn every single point/rebound he gets, and each one has the potential to make Andrea look silly.
The Edge: Denver
The Backup: Anyone else think that Belinelli/Johnson are the bizarro Smith/Anderson? Seriously…Belinelli and Smith are the kamikaze scorers who come off the bench and hit ridiculous shots. Johnson and Anderson are the energy guys who grab rebounds, put down dunks and are crowd favourites. Wright needs to stop shooting jumpers, even if he’s open, and Jack should only be allowed to take it to the rack and either lay it up, or kick it out to a shooter. Have to say, it looks pretty even on the pine.
The Edge: Even
The Brain: Triano had a brain fart on Sunday giving Jack too much burn in the 4th. All it took was a few minutes for the momentum to shift in Phoenix’s favour, and that’s all it’s going to take against the Nuggets who are elite in their own right. I shudder to think what Billups/Smith will do to Calderon/Jack if Triano insists on playing them together. Shudder. As much as I hate Karl, he has this one.
The Edge: Denver
Injury Report
Raptors
Reggie Evans – out
Antoine Wright – questionable
Nuggets
Anthony Carter – questionable
The Line
Vegas has the line at Nuggets -8.5 with an over/under of 219
How to Win This Game
I got nothing here. The Nuggets are a much better team that we don’t match-up well against. IF we keep them off the boards, and IF we hit all our shots, and IF Carmelo has an off-night, there is a chance.
Prediction
Jeremy’s SIM says the Nuggets win 126-117, and that sounds about right to me.
79 Raps
The pheonix game was like a boxing match where the underdog brought it all to the ring and fell just short by decision. I had a feeling the raps would bring that energy and for the first time ever dropped quite a few dollars on them online. Of course, they fell by one point!
I can see us bringing similar energy tonight. As long as CB continues to play with this newly developped agression, the rest of the team follows in my opinion. I say the Mcnuggets will take us lighter than they should, and end up getting burned.
109-98 Raptors
We win this one, I called it! we win by more than 10 points
We win this one, I called it! we win by more than 10 points. My first time calling a game this season!
am with you on this i think our boys will steal a victory from mile high
the likelihood the raps keep it within single digits, let alone win, are pretty remote. shit, if they keep ‘em under 125 i’d be impressed. actually, i wouldn’t be impressed, just surprised. the one caveat is that this group seems to have a little pride, something missing from the team that was trounced/embarrassed/belittled/ground-into-pulp last december.
still…i’m thinking something in the 119-103 -ish range.
Hard to argue with that. Only way I see us pulling this off is if Nene and Birdman become non-factors and Jack is able to neutralize Billups (insert LOL). I don’t mind ‘Melo getting his.
Weirder things have happened, or wait…no they haven’t.
Jack may not be able to neutralize Ty Lawson
Ty Lawson is an exceptional PG, was slept on in the draft, and is going to be terrific.
Ty Lawson was a sleeper and everyone knew Minnesota not just f@#%’d the Rubio pick they knew Minnie donated Ty Lawson to Denver (a la Rudy Fernadez and Rajon Rondo from the Sarver PHX Suns). I wish Colangelo had better lucky breaks with retarded GMs. Ty Lawson is a battle tank that can dribble the ball well. Bargs better put the ball on the floor and attack NeNe because he will totally out-muscle Bargs in the paint.
I’ve only watched one Denver game this year, but damn, Ty Lawson looked good. Dude is as fast as he is strong, and can shoot the ball really well.
I smell a future all-star appearance.
We’re concerned about Birdman?
Don’t let the Birdman get any put-back dunks or offensive rebounds… the Denver crowd will force us out of the building if he gets his.
I was more concerned with the following sentence : “Matt Bonner flies for a two handed jam” than a birdman put back.
birdman? Have you seen him play this year?
Nope, not at all. Just going by last year, is he even on the Nuggets?
sigh.
I actually also see a Nuggets team taking us lightly and we keep it close, and possibly pull out the dubya
They were saying on the fan that birdman isn’t playing tonite I guess that’s not true?
It’s possible, ESPN Injury Report said he was good to go. Could be a game-time decision.
bro cant log into the chart thread during game time any reason why?
The Raptors could win if
1. They can get Carmelo in early foul trouble and keep him there for the entire game. Considering that the game is being played in Denver this is a long shot at best.
2. Find a way, anyway to keep Smith from reigning threes all night long. Possible even though the Raptors defense might have nothing to do with it.
3. Calderon at least play even with Billups. It would help if Calderon could spend the night staying in front of Billups on defense and not wind up looking at his backside as Billups goes to the hoop.
4. Shoot over 50% – 45%. The road trip ain’t getting any shorter. Odds: Possible but very unlikely
5. Johnson not get in foul trouble and play a solid 20 plus minutes. Tough and physical front court and I am sure his legs are as tired as all of the other Raptors who have been playing their regular minutes. A long shot but possible
6. Bosh and Bargnani not get into foul trouble. My sense is that atleast one of them will get into foul trouble tonight and maybe both. Tired legs and all are a major factor in committing fouls. The only way to prevent this tonight would be for Bosh and Bargnani to play matador defense which makes the odds of the Raptors winning tonight even less.
Can the Raptors win tonight? Possible but not likely. Can they beat the spread. I give that about 40 – 60 at best based on their recent past history in Denver and the length of this road trip.
If all of your scenarios happen, we win by 20!
I’ll drink a Molson’s or two or even three to that.
With JR Smith back, NO RETARDED double teams! I’ll take two points instead of 3.
just a little note on the whole Johnson tired thing…. Word has it that Toronto just signed Pops and he is in Denver possibly suiting up for this game… if Johnson is ineffective, pops’ fresh legs could be a huge boost.
In the game against Pheonix the +/- for our bigs were
Bosh -12
Bargnani + 15
Johnson – 7
Their playing time added up to 48:00 so I will assume that two of the three were on at all times. Then as combinations the +/- were
Bosh/Bargnani +5
Bargnani/Johnson +10
Bosh/Johnson – 17
It is the Bosh/Johnson combination that is going to have to do much better for any chance at a victory tonight!
i love how the +/- is trotted out as though it actually means something…but only when there’s some supposed point to ‘prove’ (in this case, i guess what’s being ‘proven’ is that the raps were better when bargs was in the game as opposed to when bosh & johnson were in together). i would take this as proof that bosh needs to be traded, and the team be built around bargnani.
what’s weird is that when i was watching the game, it seemed to me that bargs was kinda shyte, and that bosh & johnson were actually pretty good. i guess the numbers don’t lie though. i think i’m gonna stop watching games, and just check the digits at the end.
Johnson has had a difficult time adjusting to the increase in minutes.
I too have notice that his play has gone down somewhat significantly as his minutes have gone up.
I think he has having trouble adjusting to
1. Playing the extending minutes compared to what he is used to
2. Playing the minutes at a high level without fouling. In order to reduce his fouls committed and stay on the court he has sacrificed his defense aggressiveness. I am comparing to how he played in Detroit especially in 2007-08
It seems to me in watching him play that when he plays shorter minutes he can excert more concentrated energy and not worry about getting tired or committing fouls. This allowed him to play for effectively on the defensive end as he can better compensate for things like being out of position with more energy when he plays shorter minutes. As he has lowered his fouls in order to stay on the court and subsequently get more minutes his defense has taken a beating.
3. Also this is he first time in his career that he has been in a regular rotation for extended minutes against starters and his inexperience definitely shows.
Will he get better?
I expect Evans to take most of his minutes once Evans returns and for Johnson go back to playing shorter more productive minutes against bench players.
You are correct if you are saying that +/- isn’t a be all end all measure as the combinations of who you play with/against varies. However I wouldn’t say it doesn’t mean anything …..
My point was simply that the Bosh/Johnson combination was very ineffective and needs to be better if we expect to have a chance tonight — Bargnani played over 34 minutes so Bosh/Johnson would have been on the floor 14 minutes … so the -17 they contributed in such a short time together is a big hole to dig out of against a good team.
You are definitely correct in stating that people often use stats to prove their point and Yes Bargnani’s +/- was inflated by the fact that he played most of the 2cd quarter against Phoenix’s second unit. However, from what I saw, Bargnani played a pretty good game. His FG% was low and he forced his offense at the beginning of the 2cd quarter. Nevertheless, his presence in the offense opens up the game Bosh. He draws the other teams center out of the key and the raptors offense is more fluid when Bargnani is on the floor. When Bargnani got into foul trouble our offense went stagnant (this along with JJ’s butter fingers). Moreover, the spacing on the floor is much better with Bargs on the floor. These factors all contributed to Bargnani’s +/-.
I don’t get why people are ripping Bargnani’s D in the Phoenix game. Once again another example of people looking at the stats and not actually deconstructing the game play. Frye’s open 3’s were a flaw (if you want to call it a flaw) in Triano’s defensive scheme NOT BARGNANI’S DEFENSE. Bargnani was helping all night on D and for the last 5 minutes of the game he was primarily guarding Nash (He did a damn good job of keeping Nash in front of him). I don’t understand the criticism of Bargnani on D. We do not really play man defense. Rather, we rely on TEAM defense to shut down the other team. Bargnani is on occasion slow to react on help. But, his defense is not as bad as many of suggest.
With the exception of the clipper’s game, Bargnani’s jumper has been off. I am predicting that Bargnani hits his jumper tonight and goes off on the Denver D (as long as he stays out of foul trouble)
GO Raptors GO !!
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I hate to belabor the point either, but in the middle of the 4th quarter — when Bargnani picked up his 5th foul — the Raps went from 84-79 ahead, to 91-86 for the Suns … a 10 point spread. +/- may not be the greatest stat, but that 10 point differential clearly shows SOMETHING happened.
Andrea may not have been operating on full cylinders, but I liked his D. He certainly had Nash thinking hard – and made it a little more difficult for the guy who’s having a MVP season.
If Bargs had had his offense going, it would’ve been the difference for this game — with a Win richly deserved.
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From what I can recall from the game (not going to look at actual numbers to verify), Bosh was kept on the bench as long possible while the second unit bought time against a Nash-less Suns while Nash caught a breather.
When the Suns went back to their A-team, Bosh and Jose were brought back in. If Bosh got to feast against the B-team, I’m sure his +/- would be different. I could be wrong, but that’s how I remember it.
I will have to predict rape for the Raps by the Nuggets in Denver by about 20, but this time it is not as consensual as the last 3 seasons.
If you think Billups will be a headache for Jose wait until the speedy Lawson subs and crosses him. I see lawson causing more problems, because jose (6″4′) will be able to defend on Billups post-game (his natural preference)
Lawson has rush hour handles that will break down the defense with his dribble penetration.
It will be a painful one to watch. Last time we played the high Octane Denver, a Mitchell was fired.
What will happen today? It is up in the air, just like the city.
And bullshit “altitude” excuses a-plenty.
I believe Jose is shorter than 6′4, but either way, he’s going to get molested by Billups/Lawson. I think JJ plays a few more minutes and plays the way he’s capable of tonight. He makes a lot more sense on defense vs the Nuggets team, and we’re going to look to get bosh many touches at the ball tonight. I predict a 41 pt, 20 board game for CB tonight!
pretty sure he’s a legit 6′3″
put weems on billups
Billips would eat him alive.
Smoke another one, whydontcha!
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As time marches on, the Phoenix game will look like “we tried our best, and just fell short … oh well …”.
Truth is, we should’ve won that game. And not because of rebounding, or AB (19.3 PPG 5.7 RB) – yes, I’d prefer a higher RB). Not because Bosh didn’t get the final touch — do we forget last year when we’d all scream with that thought. Nor is it because Hedo took the last shot either. Part of me does question why we started to chuck the ball at the beginning of the 4th Quarter – a bad habit we had last year.
Excluding this game, Phoenix was averaging 122 points per game @ home, in 3 games (yeah, a small sample). This proves our Defense did well. As for the Raptors scoring, they’ve averaged 109 pts on the Road (in 5 games) – which gives a slight edge to the thought that our Offense was not quite sparkling.
In this Suns game, the combination of Jack, Jose & DeRozan (70 minutes total) chipped in for 16 points …. TOTAL. Not that I wanna blame these 3 guys, but we need more than that, especially against a weak defensive team like the Suns.
As for the 3 pt Killer, it had little effect – Phoenix was 8/24 … a 33.3% average, well below their Season average of 46.2 %.
So why the loss?
While I’m still working on that thought, I think the upside is … we had every right to win that game, even if we let it slip through our fingers.
Rapthoseleafs
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‘So why the loss?’
well, you could look at the fact that the raps were pretty much dead even with the suns in every relevant category…save for rebounding.
just saying.
The rebounding was 46-39 in favor of thr Suns , turnovers were 11-15 in favor of the Raptors and the steals were 6-3 in favor of the Raptors.
So basically the Suns were +7 on rebounding but -6 on steals and turnovers which may explain the closeness of the score.
However , of the 11 turnovers by the Raptors ,3 were done by Bosh and 3 by Jack . One less turnover by one of these two and the game might have been won.
Sorry , adding mistake … the Suns had a +7 on rebounds but were worse than the Raptors by -7 on steals and turnovers , a possible explanation for a very close game.
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The Suns were only +1 on Offensive rebounds – so coupled with the Steals & Turnovers, the Raps had more “second chance” point opportunities. At the line is where the Suns made things up.
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I’d worry about Lawson’s quickness against Calderon and/or Jack. He can take them whenever he wants to.
Denver match up very well with Toronto. Looks like a bad night on the horizon.
It really shouldn’t be too hard to limit the rookie to jumpers … lay back off him and play a team defensive style ‘guarding the house’.
The key to tonight’s game is similar to the Phoenix game; slow the style of play down, but get the shooting percentage up, thus not allowing the Denver fast break.
Oh, and somebody push ‘melo around a bit, will ya’? The first time he step jabs four times in a row, just hack him across his wimpy arms and make him think about it.
Defend the House….while Billups and JR Smith knock it down with smashing balls saying “3pt” on them.
Toughest game on the road trip.
A real test of how hard the Raps are willing to play just to be close!
Effort can win games, don’t count the Raps out.
Effort CAN win games. Which is why Denver will cream us tonight (they have it in spades, and we are effort-starved on most nights).
Hedo and (especially) Bargnani show little effort and heart in general. I LOVE Bargnani’s offensive game, but he fully deserves the nickname of Vegetable Lasagna on account of lack of effort on the boards. Some people think it is childish, but I would argue it is the truth.
The fact that he grabbed 12 rebounds in one game this year proves what he can do with a little more effort. So why the hell does he not show that fire every night?
Before you start to vilify Bargnani (I am not a Barg supporter), why don’t you find out when most of our opponent’s offensive boards occur. Is it with him in our lineup or is it when our franchise player is on the floor. Remember our franchise player usually camps under the basket to get the rebound without ever boxing out his opponent.
On the new Poll.
I want to choose – Fill the empty roster spot with NO ONE
I second that notion.
same
Fourthed
To bad….POPS is on board now!!!!
Hope Colangelo does not add/trade garbage for the sake of trading. After POB, I’ve had enough of it already.
who the hell does these polls?
*shrugs*
I am not too optimistic at this early stage of the season – so we should give this to Denver – and maybe a good opportunity JT to experiment with some plays and player combination against a very good team. If Raptors match Denver’s physical game, the injury risk may outweigh the win (if they win of course!), remember there are 71 more games to play. Even maybe in a losing cause, just set a record for threes tonight – Good luck Raps!
“I got nothing here. The Nuggets are a much better team that we don’t match-up well against.”
I hope that’s not what Triano tells them tonight.
This will be a heck of a game for the Raps to try and win. The Nuggets are on 3 or 3.5 days rest, and have shown so far that they do not take games off.
I actually think that the Raps will come out well to start the game, and get into somewhat of a running match with Denver, looking to push the ball. It will be high scoring for the first quarter and a half until the legs give out a little, and Denver clamps down and make us look a little silly.
Look for Rasho to come in this one once Bargnani attracts his first 3 fouls all before the halfway point of the second quarter. I also think that Wright will play. He has been waiting to rematch against Melo since the playoffs last year, and will be a help defensively to the Raps.
Raps lose 103-96.
Raptors fans, follow me on twitter tonight (@tdotflip05) and/or follow my hash tag #RaptorsinDenver. I will be live tweeting from the Pepsi Center.
Go Raps go!
Kyle
‘The thing about games is, ya gotta play ‘em to find out who wins ‘em. The way I see it, we owe the Nuggets a big fat ass-kicking … so people at home are gonna be watching just in case we do it tonight. We’ve been moving it forward, getting better with each game … so maybe tonight, we keep it going in that direction and show ‘em who the Raptors REALLY are. Let’s go get these fuckers!’
(What I hope Jay Triano DOES tell them before tonight’s game.) (Ya, I’m ready.)
I’d like to see Jay put Bosh on Nene, and Andrea on Kenyon. Bosh has the quickness to stay with Nene, and won’t get bullied down low like Bargs will.
Bosh play defense (cough….cough…more cough). You mean the great job he did on Zach Randolph during the Memphis game. He is a slightly bigger than a toothpick that will get pushed easily by any strong centre or power forward.
Denver is a chucker team with a bunch of thugs (minus Chauncey). They get away with their poor shooting and decision making due to offensive rebounding and a slightly improved (read: average) defence under Karl.
If Toronto rebounds and Carmelo/Billups or Smith have an off night shooting, we’ll win. Yes, that is a BIG IF.
If Carmelo and Smith are hot, we’re toast. If Nene does what he usually does to Bargs, we’re toast again. Can the new Bargs get Nene in foul trouble?
It depends how much Denver wants this. I bet they overlook us a bit, and then try to murder us in the second half. This game will all be about how the Raptors handle the Denver run when it comes in the third quarter, and they have adjusted to whatever junk defence Triano used to get them down in the first place.
Go Raps!
I hate making Reggie freakin’ Evans the saviour of our team, but I think we have a much better shot at this one if he is in the lineup.
Pops is a Raptor again. ha.
POPS IS BACK BABY!!!!!!!!!
Pops is backkk!!! *Looks at POB* …D-League? Rasho is going to get less min. We are fast and athletic at Front LOL…Who needs a Center???
Pops will put fans in the seats (maybe). But he will sell jerseys. Good move from a club profile perspective. Not much b-ball value with Amir, Rasho and Evans…maybe I am wrong.
POPS IS BACK THE LEGEND RETURNS FINALLY
yeeee budddy, pops is back
You mean because our franchise player only made one of two free throws. First free throw attempt by Bosh was 8:42 of the third quarter. He can’t play against physical players and will do exctly what he did today. Nothing.
Carmelo Anthony…no problem paying the max. Comes ready to play and does not choke.
Bosh was fouled several times by these “physical players”. He didn’t get the calls. We didn’t establish him in the first quarter like he should have, but the Refs seriously cost us this game. I don’t know if we would win if they’d called it fair, but I know it wouldn’t have been so damn frustrating to watch.
Are you going to use the same excuse in the playoffs for Bosh (if we make it). The last two playoff series, he choked and was manhandled by physical players. He was a non-factor.
In todays’s game the best moment was when Nene just snatched it away from him. That is Toronto’s franchise player…laugh….laugh…laugh.
Sure the officiating was questionable, but bad reffing or not the Raptors didn’t do themselves any favours in the second half. Pretty ugly effort.
Doc says: “Pretty ugly effort.” I would say total lack of effort in the second half. Denver is much better team regardless. No doubt about it.
Yup .. I was trying to be kind Dragan. ;)
Keep in mind Karl did a good job getting his players to isolate the weaker Raptor defenders. During the 1st half they exploited Jose and Marco multiple times. It was painfully obvious too. :(