Check out the game preview thread we got going, it’s a great place to catch up on lineup changes, injury etc.
The 8-2 Suns used to be 8-1 with everything going smoothly as ever, they were surprising people, dominating teams and proving the experts wrong. Then they went to LA and got theirs handed to them by the Lakers sans Gasol. The pundits gave the age old, worn-out but correct analysis that the team is built for the regular season and as soon as the playoffs come, so sets the sun. No arguments here. After a demeaning loss there’s nothing worse than waiting for three full days to get a chance to set things right, and unfortunately for the Raps, they’ll be looking to set things right at our expense.
To have a chance here we’ll need to defend the best pick ‘n roll combo in the league since Stockton and Malone. Nash and Stoudemire have perfected the play and teams have been unable to stop them because of pure perfection in execution. The unpredictability of what happens after the screen is what throws defenses off to the point where the most common play in basketball confuses them to death. Whereas traditional teams use the high-screen from certain areas to initiate their offense, the Suns use the play two or even three times on the same possession from any point on the court, even after broken plays. After Stoudemire has set the initial pick what follows can be a pop, roll, slip or simply a pass to an open shooter as help comes to deal with the uncertainty of what could happen next.
Teams have tried putting taller, athletic players on Nash (like Odom most recently) so that they can switch on the screens and give Nash space while contesting the jumper. Even though the strategy doesn’t always work it’s still proven to be the most effective of the lot. The Bulls did something similar with Stockton by having Scottie Pippen and Ron Harper check the playmaker through the two epic NBA Finals series. We don’t have Scottie Pippen but we have Antoine Wright who should be used tonight in a similar fashion. The Calderon on Nash matchup isn’t going to be easy for Jose and the best he can do is wear Nash out on the other end, you know he’ll have his opportunities against a loose Suns defense which happens to allow more points than the Raptors’ (106.44 vs 107.1) and lets opponents shoot higher percentage (46.7% vs 48.3%). The last time we faced Nash he dropped 18 assists on us as the Raptor PGs kept getting stuck behind the screen, got to give a better effort in PnR situations.
While the Suns may be the top scoring team in the league at 111ppg and second in FG% at 49%, they do have weaknesses as pointed out by the blogger below, namely interior defense. Channing Frye is their starting center and after that it’s down to Jarron Collins, neither of them defensive stalwarts by any means. I’ve always liked Frye, I was surprised the Knicks gave up on him so early and do think he’s a very reliable role player who can be very consistent in his production, as he’s showing this year by averaging 13/5. There’s also Louis Amundson to worry about, he had 20/10 on 9-11FG last time we faced them, so even though on paper we’re supposed to have an advantage with Bosh and Bargnani, you just never know which Sun will turn out to be the X-Factor.
I’m thinking Bargnani takes Collins while Bosh checks Stoudemire which makes sense since the latter’s the more agile player and needs to be guarded by a player who can move his feet. As great as Bosh has played this year, his defense still shuts off frequently and he gets scored on when he really shouldn’t be getting scored on. If he even has two of those stretches which last two minutes each, that’s enough for the Suns to put up 20 points in no time. It’s easier said than done, but defensive concentration is a must and we can’t hang our heads after Phoenix makes those 8-2 and 6-0 runs. Remember that we can score too and the first team to make a true defensive stand will have a great shot at winning. The Raptors’ main offensive advantage could be Bargnani if he decides to play it right, Collins is no contest and if Frye is switched on him, he should (based on salary, overall pick and hype) be able to take advantage, we’ll see.
Will Belinelli’s great showing against the Clippers be followed by another one or will he go back to being 1-5? DeMar DeRozan was terrible in LA in every facet of the game but tonight there definitely will be opportunities for him to get some points, it’ll depend on how hard he plays. On one hand it’s good that the rookie is composed and plays within the structure of Triano’s offense, but at the same time he doesn’t present himself to his teammates nearly as much as I think he can. Instead of wandering on the perimeter waiting for his number to be called he should at least make it a point that he gets a touch or so every possession, just so he doesn’t forget about himself. His “dead periods” need to be reduced.
Grant Hill’s quickness against Turkoglu could be problematic, especially if Turkoglu isn’t healthy which would mean we’d have to dedicate Wright to him, it would be nice to see one of our other wing step-up to this challenge and shut Hill down. I’d also be weary of Jared Dudley, we’ll need somebody to match hustle with him because he’s liable to have a major impact on the offensive boards if we decide to just go through the motions. Barbosa on Jack is intriguing from the standpoint that these are the types of matchups Jack is supposed to even out for us, so far he’s struggling but the Phoenix defense can cure a lot of ills.
Matchups to Watch: Jack vs Barbosa, Bargnani vs Collins, Amundson vs Johnson, Stoudemire vs Bosh
Blogger’s Take
The Phoenix blog on the TrueHoop network is the Valley of the Suns.
What did the Suns loss in LA mean?
It means the Suns will struggle against teams with big, athletic front lines, but really we already knew that. Being beaten pretty thoroughly without Pau Gasol also means the Suns are still a good chunk behind the Lakers in the Pacific, but really we already knew that as well. Overall, having played seven games in 10 days, I take more from the first six games (5-1, win over Boston) than a buzzsaw game like this against a rested, motivated Lakers squad.
Would you do an Amare for Bosh trade? Why or why not?
No, I’d rather have STAT than the “RuPaul of big man.” Just kidding on the nickname, Raps fans, but the biggest reason I wouldn’t do it is because of the familiarity between Nash and Amare and how well he knows this system. As we saw last year with J-Rich, it takes time to get used to this system even for a player like Richardson perfectly suited to it. I’d also be a bit worried about using Bosh as the primary center as the Suns often do with Amare.
What will the Raptors have to do to win this game? What’s the Suns’ weakness?
Interior defense and rebounding. The Lakers just pounded the Suns for 76 points in the paint, and when Channing Frye is your center, this isn’t such a surprise. The Suns have actually been much better rebounding the ball than anybody could have expected, out-rebounding opponents by 2 boards a game, but as the self-described smallest team in the NBA it’s still far from a strength.
Prediction
The sims are 6-3 so far and I’m inclined to agree with Visser’s PS3 on this one: 114-103 Suns. We’ve never beaten a Phoenix team with Nash on it and although I do think we’ll keep up our scoring pace, they’ll just do it better.
Over/under is at 229.5.
32 Raps
looking forward to this track meet. hopefully the raptors can carry the momentum and make this one interesting.
its gunna be a tough one…what’s the over?
I wonder if Weems get’s some PT against Suns? With Turk a bit banged up, they could probably use an athletic player like Weems at the 3 for this track meet.
J.Richardson is talented, but for the Suns guy’s sake, seeing him shoot threes will most likely help an opposing team win. Richardson should be a dunker and a 2-pt field goal specialist, but who am I to poke at. Will Turk’s hip be fine with all the running?
I’m just scared of Dudley and Looooouuuu Amundson, hustle guys of other teams usually get the best of our front line. Neadrethal Amundson wasted us in the RuPaul game last year.
I’ll bank on Amundson getting at least 5 offensive rebounds, and J-Rich at least 4 threes and 25 points
“he should (based on salary, overall pick and hype) be able to take advantage, we’ll see.”
Least insightful comment I’ve read in a long time
And this isn’t ‘99, I don’t think Hill’s quickness is a problem. I think Turk matches up pretty well with the old vet, they are both big and crafty. Hopefully Bargnani can outplay Frye more than Nash outplays Jose. IMO that is where the game will be won or lost…
I will say that if both teams are hitting their shots this will be a very exciting game to watch.
I’m pretty sure this game will all come down to hustle. Whoever chases the most loose balls and rebounds is going to win. (What I would give to have Reggie if even just for this game). I’m hoping Amir gets alot of burn.
PS I’d also hoping for a Weems sighting…
This is the trouble with relying on basic stats. They don’t really tell you anything. The Suns score more points than the Raps only because they play a faster pace, and so take more shots. The far superior stat in this regard is Offensive Rating — points produced per 100 offensive possessions.
By this stat, the Raps are the top offensive team in the NBA, producing 116.9 points.
Unfortunately, the reverse stat, points allowed per 100 possessions — Defensive Rating — says the Raps are the worst defensive team in the NBA, giving up 115.5 points.
These numbers show that if the Raptors played at the same pace as Phoenix, they would score more points than the Suns do. The Suns are the #3 offensive team right now, with Atlanta at #2.
Kevin Arnovitz has a blog article that uses some of these numbers and suggests that as the Raps improve their D, they will be much better in the second half of the year.
I don’t disagree, but I’ve always felt that allowed FG% is the key stat when identifying bad defensive teams.
The pace extrapolation never quite made sense to me, 48 minutes is a unit unto itself, it shouldn’t need an arbitrary adjustment to make things “even”. What if a team doesn’t want to play at a particular pace? Why are we holding that against them?
Having said, that, I understand the stat and do think it’s got merit.
I don’t disagree, but I’ve always felt that allowed FG% is the key stat when identifying bad defensive teams.
It isn’t. Only using field goal percentage would result in a failure to take into account how often free throws are being shot and how often 3 pointers are being allowed. Points per 100 possessions is by far the best overall stat to measure team offense and defense.
After that you can get into more specific information, like opponent 3 point percentage, field goal percentage, number of opponent free throws, turnovers created, and so on and so forth. But that information doesn’t tell you overall who the best and worst teams are.
What if a team doesn’t want to play at a particular pace? Why are we holding that against them?
It has nothing to do with holding anything against anybody, it’s simply about accurately processing information. Adjusting for pace results in a clearer picture of how many points each team produces. The Raptors are the top offensive team in the NBA. Let’s give them a little credit.
Rewind to my previous posts, I always consider defensive rating. You’re right, FG% doesn’t take into account bad defensive teams who foul instead of allowing a basket.
I’m not holding anything against the Raps, their offense has been phenomenal and exceeded everybody’s expectations.
Guys has anyone seen the highlight from the Bucks vs goldenstate game?
Jennings is starting to scare me… He scored 55 POINTS!!!!!!! I was ok when he scored 34 points, but 55 for a rookie! ARE YOU KIDDING ME? I am starting to lose faith in our pick… I was just wondering if we took Jennings and signed a good two instead of JJ, how our team would have been different…
Whatever, you can’t really blame BC, 8 other teams passed on him!
Interesting piece on Brandon Jennings…
http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2009/11/15/1158100/brandon-jennings-55-not-a-sign-of?ref=yahoo
LilRomeo will be here any second to say that Derozan sucks and that we should have picked Jennings. Is hindsight 20/20? Is it? It’s not like we’re the only team to pass over future stars.
I agree about Jennings, he is pretty awesome (21/34 shooting is not a bad percentage for that game either)
But I think that stat is the most telling reason why you can both like Jennings while not giving up in DeRozan after 9 games. Can you even imagine a scenario where DeRozan would be able to take 34 shots?
I believe we match up well against the suns. However, this will be a tough test for us tonight. Here is the major key to a Raptors victory.
By all means necessary, STOP DRIBBLE PENETRATION!
How will this will be achieved?
Pack the paint and use our fouls to slow down the fluidity of the Phoenix offense. We should force Grant Hill to take jump shots by playing off of him and allow Frye the open Three. (I would argue that his early success from the 3 point line is an aberration) Moreover, we might want to try putting Wright on Nash. This would be a good opportunity to try Hedo at the point forward at some point during the game (only if Hedo is healthy ofcourse). A lineup of Wright vs. Nash, Derozan/Jack vs. JRich, Hedo vs Hill, Bosh vs. Amare, and Bargs on Frye might be successful against this suns lineup.
Before everyone gets upset. I am not suggesting that we bench Calderon. I am merely suggesting that we try this lineup if Jose continues to get burned by Nash or (hopefully) gets into foul trouble.
Against an offensive team such as the suns, we need to make life difficult for them on offense through hard fouls, playing dirty, and teams toughness.
Always remember if you aren’t cheating than you’re not trying!!
not that I completely disagree with your philosophy here…. i just don’t see a 5 man unit without Jose or Jack. That being the case… having Jack or Jose cover Richardson could end up being bad news. Although i would like to find a way to get Wright on Nash.
Same with packing the paint… there are alot of extremely good 3pt shooters on that team… Grant Hill is still a great shooter as with J-Rich and Frye. Amare might not hit the 3 but he can knock down those open shots.
Personally, I say get a hand up in everyone’s face as often as possible and make sure we get every defensive rebound out there. Its a rare team that can defend Phoenix well.
Not sure if Grant Hill has ever been a good shooter. He has always made his money by driving/slashing to the rim. This season his FG% is 44 and I imagine that most of his misses have been when he is forced to take a jump shot. As long as we foul him and disrupt his slashing moves to the basket then we can neutralize the speed mismatch against Turk.
Frye’s shooting the last three games have been atrocious. Mind you these games were played over 4 days (7games in 10), so he might have lost his legs during this stretch. Nevertheless, Bargs will be playing D outside the key tonight (so don’t bitch if he doesn’t grab 6-7 rebounds)as Frye hangs around the 3 point-line on offense.
JRich could be the “X” factor tonight. However, his career FG% from the 3 is very poor. I would take my chances with J Rich throwing up 3’s rather than let Amare and Nash destroy us all night on the pick n’ roll
have a feeling raps might win this one cause they are going to play defence in teh second half
Defense just in the second half???? If they played like they did in LA, they lose. Nash and the Suns are not the Clips. As has been suggested before, the Raps need to play better defense than the Suns to have a chance.
The key to beating the Suns is to make them shoot contested 2’s which is what Triano’s D is supposed to do. The question is can we execute? The comments above are correct IMO. Our offense is better and we should have an advantage on the glass if we focus on it. We can’t let them beat us from the 3 point line and the FT line. Give them long contested 2’s and the Raptors will have a chance in the 4th.
That is the key to any defense
hedo will not play tonight i guess wright will be inserted into the line up and weems will get the call to play
If Jay figures it’s a sure loss he might as well play his bench a lot to see what they got and rest his starters.
The Raptors either give up 125 points (4 losses) or 91 points (5 wins).
There is no middle ground!
Against the Suns, they seem more like the type of opponent who will score 125 against the Raps!
So the Raps had better score more!
I am curious to see if the Raps’ strategy is to try to slow the game down like L.A. did, or to flat out play the scoring game, and see who blinks first.
Without Turk in the lineup, I think we will see a lot of Wright and Belinelli. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if it was Wright’s job to guard Nash throughout the night, and switch Jose onto Hill. It worked for the Spurs in the playoffs, but Wright is not nearly as pesky as Bowen.
“The pundits gave the age old, worn-out but correct analysis that the team is built for the regular season and as soon as the playoffs come, so sets the sun. No arguments here.”
This season, maybe. But when the Suns were really on form a few years ago, people don’t realize they were one body-check (or better officiated) game from really having a strangle hold on the Western Conference. The Spurs won with a combination of skill, grit, dirty play and luck. Not to mention some big-time plays the year after like Duncan hitting a 3-pointer.
The Suns in their prime were a playoff team. Unfortunately, I think that this incarnation is not deep enough, or tough enough since the loss of Diaw and Bell, who played some very above-average man defence.
I can guarantee that if Bowen were on any of the ‘lesser’ teams in the West, he would have fouled out of every game, because he would not have been given so much latitude to grab, grind and bump Nash every opportunity.
Although I think it would be a good strategy to put Wright on Nash, I am concerned that the refs will give him a hard time, and limit his ability to throw Nash off his game.
arse i cant join the chat during game time for some reason any reason why?
No idea, you’re not on the ban list. Try a different browser.
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[...] The Amare-Bosh matchup will be intriguing as well, especially for those around the league looking ahead to the Summer of 2010. For years it seems there’s been a lot of talk around who’s the best 2010 big man, and in this one both guys have a chance to prove their point. [...]