This celebration was for nothing as the Bulls lost a heart-breaker to Denver.Coming off a deflating loss to a decimated Spurs team, one thing has become particularly evident: this outfit will live and die through its offense. Basically, you score on us and we’ll score on you and let’s see who’s ahead after 48 minutes. That’s what it has boiled down to. It’s already dawning on many of us that all the positive “defense first” talk during preseason was just lip service, but losing a game after shooting 59%? That makes it almost comical.
59%!?! Just think about that. How do you lose a game shooting that well? Some futile attempts at answering this: They got out-rebounded by 11 which can be traced to a 16–5 offensive rebounding deficit. Ultimately, more rebounds lead to more possessions and whaddya know, the Spurs had 11 extra possessions. It doesn’t always work out that nicely but that’s the general trend. The Raptors haven’t been rebowned like this every game but they have the 4th-worst rebounding differential in the league at -2.8. Once you combine this with a opposition 3-pt% of 45.3 (30th in the league) and an equally horrendous rate of 9.6 3s allowed (29th), you can see that this team is completely lost on defense. They leave the perimeter open which is understandable considering Triano’s “pack-the-paint” philosophy, yet with all those Raptors in the paint, they can’t grab their share of rebounds. The philosophy is not working. And it’s predictable.
You would think an NBA calibre coach would be able to change up the game plan if something has gone awry, which it clearly has. The NBA is full of guys who can shoot the 3. Gone are the days where the shooting guard and maybe the point guard were the only outside threats. Most SFs can now shoot it and a good amount of PFs and some Cs, like our own Andrea can hit open 3s. Good shooters shoot about 35-40% but that’s more like 50-60% in terms of true shooting percentages. The math just doesn’t work in the Raptors’ favour. Now, Triano’s talking about “blow-by’s”. Sounds like something I shouldn’t be talking about on a family blog, but when a guy is running to close out a shooter, it’s quite difficult for him to reverse directions that quickly if the shooter changes his mind and drives forward. Momentum’s a bitch.
Anyway, enough about the past. It’s one that got away and the Raptors are flying back home, proverbial tails between their legs, to face Da Bulls. The Bulls are coming off a spirited loss at home to Denver on Tuesday. This could mean one of 2 things: They will be hungry after a really close call against a Western Conference powerhouse and will want this game even more, OR they will have a major letdown and will be ripe for the picking.
Let’s look at some matchups for Wednesday night’s contest:
Calderon vs. Rose: Not pretty. One of the more athletic guards in the league and powerful to boot. Rose is a good passer, not a great one. Turning him into a passer will be a challenge for this team. I think this is a case where the Bulls rely on his offense more than most teams would from their 1. Take his points away and I’m not sure if the Bulls will be able to compensate for the loss. Calderon has to realize that this team lacks a true big. Brad Miller is entering his twilight years and Joakim Noah shouldn’t be intimidating anyone from coming into the lane. Jarret Jack has to show he is the defensive answer at the point. Or least a significant defensive upgrade over Caldy.
Salmons vs. DeRozan/Wright: Demar starts but isn’t playing much these days so you have to factor in Antoine Wright. John Salmons is a guy who shouldn’t strike fear into anyone, but when he’s effective he’s slashing to the hoop and getting to the line frequently. He’s had some horrible shooting performances to start the year (34% FG, 23% from 3), so he’s still finding his rhythm. Not saying you dare him to hit wide open 3s, but give him his space early on and see how he’s progressing in that respect. He might just singlehandedly shoot the Bulls out of this game. Offensively, can’t expect much out of either Demar or Antoine. Neither is a great shooter and Demar is still a non-factor in the offensive game-plan whether you agree or not. The contribution from the 2, therefore, is to play sound defense and contain dribble penetration which should be doable against Salmons, especially when not much energy will be expended on offense. Demar is not a bad rebounder for his size and I would like to see him crash the boards a little more, that put-bank dunk he almost had against the Spurs is where his head needs to be at. Not comparing the two, but everyone has heard Tracy McGrady’s line about having to play defense to stay on the floor as a younger player under Butch Carter. The same should apply to DeRozan.
Turkoglu vs. Deng: Luol Deng is one of those good but not great players. One of the things holding him back from being great is lack of shooting range, he attempts a 3 about every other game. This is the kind of guy who might struggle against a “pack-the-paint” kind of defense. He rebounds very well for his position and Turk will have to try to not let him pound the offensive glass. I think Deng will be able to guard Turk effectively as well, hopefully he won’t make him into a non-factor like Marion did. He’s got the length and quickness to stay with Turkoglu so this matchup leans towards Deng.
Bosh vs. Taj Gibson: I had to mention Taj Gibson’s full name. Isn’t that all you need to know? This is a tender rook filling in for the injured Tyrus Thomas. He’s barely more than half-a-dozen games into his embryonic career. CB4 has to take full advantage of this matchup and if form is to be believed, he will. Pound the ball inside early and often. This may be the only advantageous matchup offensively. Defensively, Bosh might even have the option to cheat off Gibson a little to help out others. I like those rare instances when Bosh challenges on the perimeter. He has even shown some quickness to stay with guards so he’s not a bad guy to rotate out occasionally.
Bargnani vs. Noah: Noah is beasting on the boards. He recorded 21 last night against a formidable Denver frontcourt. I was never sure about Noah but it seems this year he is showing the same passion as he did in college as a difference-maker for Florida. Broken record here, but Bargnani just has to hold his own on the boards. We just can’t afford to have him get out-rebounded like 12-5 or something obscene like that. It puts way too much stress on other players to compensate for the disparity. Offensively, he isn’t quicker than Noah. He’ll have trouble breaking Noah down but he is definitely bigger than him. This means that either he will take advantage of his larger frame by posting Noah up, or the more likely scenario, where Andrea will hoist more perimeter shots. Hopefully he shoots them at his current excellent success rate (53% FG, 49% from 3), because if he’s not providing efficient scoring then he’s not bringing anything positive to this team.
Let’s get the ESPN TrueHoop Blogger’s take and this is from Bulls By The Horns:
What has been the biggest surprise of the season so far?
The biggest surprise has probably been the team’s godawful shooting, led by a slumping John Salmons. A close second is the stellar play of Joakim Noah, who has really taken a step forward this season. A very quiet surprise has been the team’s defense. After being almost non-existent last season, they are ranked 8th in defensive efficiency.
What the Bulls realistically hoping to achieve this year?
They want to earn the fourth or fifth seed. It’s possible…but they’re going to have to come out of January with a plus-.500 record. That’ll be hard, because they have some very difficult road stretches through the first three months.
How are you guys doing without Ben Gordon?
The team defense has improved, but the Bulls really miss BG on offense. Obviously, Chicago has become the worst three-point shooting team in the league. Opposing teams are clogging the paint and daring the Bulls to beat them from the outside, which is killing D-Rose’s drives. The team also doesn’t yet have a designated closer, which makes end-of-game situations a bit of a crap shoot. But there was bound to be a transitional phase.
Here’s Jimmy’s simulation for Wednesday night’s game. Raps take it 109-91 after having a huge first half. We are keeping track of them here.
Let’s hope this is the actual outcome. This might be the only realistic shot at winning a game for the next little while. We lose this, and an extended losing streak may be in the works.
Finally, Raptor Fan Fridays are back starting this Friday against the Clippers!
46 Raps
i will go out and say this we will win this game for sure because the bulls without gordon will not be able to outscore us period.
You could have said the same thing about playing San Antonio without Duncan and Parker.
true!
We win this game because we are 2-0 against teams playing on back-to-backs
The key to this game is keeping Noah off the boards, limiting Derrick Rose dribble penetration(ala CP3) and Hedo not being out of this game(like Marion did to him). Mark it. If not, this is a loss. This is a winnable game(if they lose again Bryan, you need to blow this “this is your best team on paper” shit up).
Part of me applauds JT for sticking to his guns,but part of me is thinking if it smells like shit ,looks like shit,chances are its shit !!!!
Every team has someone who can shoot threes and a speedy guard that can spread the defense…
Is there another team in the NBA that practices the same defensive principles?
Lol!! Agreed. Noah is going to be a hand full tonight. If the raps don’t make there three’s tonight, this will be a very close game.
Prediction: Noah will get 38 more rebounds than Bargs – tonight.
I don’t think it was lip service. I think they are working on a new system and they haven’t quite nailed it yet. I’d be a little patient. Maybe it won’t work, but you don’t get anywhere by giving up.
And why is it so cool to write such negative articles. I see tons of upside for this squad. I’m optimistic and think it’s not the worst possible start.
…says the blind man.
I think I’ll keep that as my name, a reminder to you when the Raps are flying up the table.
We can easily drop 100+ on any team it seems.
I like our firepower compared to the Bulls. I think we can/should win this one.
We need this W because the next few games on the road will be tough!!!
ESPN’s Team States
Raptors are #1 in offense efficiency at 115.8
Raptors are #30 in defense efficincy at 116.5
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats?&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fhollinger%2fteamstats
Its clear from this that anymore than a possible first round flame out in playoffs will require a significantly improved defense.
Its unlikely being 30th in defense lets you flame out in the playoffs.
But there is no reason for the Raps to be dead last in the league on defense by mid-season.
The playoffs are far more physical than the regular season and the deeper you go into the playoffs the more physical the game becomes.
It is very rare indeed that any team can get by the first round in the playoffs unless they can play top 15 defense.
Can the Raptors make the playoffs with such a porous defense?
I think that they can simply because with their offense they should be able to win enough home games to get into the first round lower bracket.
Any team can score. Playoffs is about defense and getting a stop when you need. Sorry rap fans, more defence in the starting line up is needed. We don’t need 5 scorers to start the game. Wait for the opponent to make subs then bring in the scorers.
As of now Derrick Rose is NOT one of the more athletic guards in the league.
He has a bum ankle that will not permit him to plant and drive. At no point vs Denver did he even try to turn the corner and drive. Often moving backwards and sideways to create space for himself.
Rose did get 10 points in the 4th quarter on 4 made jump shots. But without him disrupting the defense, the Bulls offense is stagnant. Probably why the Bulls can’t score this year.
Good news for Calderon and Jack. Just keep a hand in his face and take away his space.
he was still blowing by chauncy, you think jose can handle him?
Derrick Rose with a bad ankle will still be able to drive all over Jose.
I would change the starting linuep.
I would start Johnson, despite his propensity to accumulate fouls at an extraordinary high rate.
I would have Bargnani come off of the bench.
My reasoning is as follows
1. The Raptors don’t need Bargnani’s scoring in the first unit. Replacing him with Johnson will give Turkoglu and DeRozan more opportunities on offense. At this point if DeRozan is not shooting he is basically worthless because his defense is still so weak.
2. Putting Johnson in the starting lineup alongside Bosh and Turkoglu will upgrade the defense in the starting unit.
3. Having Bargnani come off the bench will make the second unit that much more potent and his horrible defense won’t be such a major liability playing against second string players.
I think it is worth a shot. The other possibility is to wait until Evans returns and start him rather than Bargnani.
I realize johnson had respectable stats last game however he was on the floor when they got pounded on the boards in the 2Q – so I don’t see his presence helping their rebounding woes.
In general I would say the negative outweighs the positive when johnson is on the floor.
I posted yesterday that according to 82games.com the two best five man units that the Raptors have had to date included Johhnson, one with Bosh and the other with Bargnani but the Bosh-Bargnani unit does not show as good.
Johnson with Bosh, Wright, Jack and Calderon is 3 – 0
Johnson with Jack,Belinelli, Wright and Bargnani is 2 – 1
http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR9.HTM
The starting unit of
Calderon-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh is 4 – 3.
http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR10.HTM
There is not stat for Johnson with Bosh, DeRozan, Turkoglu and Bosh
Anyway it would only be temporary until Evans returns then I would start him and keep Bargnani coming off of the bench.
Bargnani isn’t playing horrible defense. The Raps defensive problems have to do with how their guards, specifically Calderon, handle pick and roll defense.
It’s much more important for Bargs to grab more rebounds than the play great defense. Second chance points are what’s killing this team. But Bargs has to help by rotating out to defend the perimeter as the ball swings out from the post, which puts him too far away from the hoop to grab the board.
Poor rebounding is what’s killing this team, not poor team defense.This is the top offensive team in the NBA. This team has more firepower than anybody. They can afford to give the bad guys some open looks as long as they limit the offensive boards. That’s Mike D’Antoni’s system right there. Guhh, I wish he was coaching this team.
Bargnani is averging 6.8 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Johnson is at 9.2
Evans career average is 12.6
By replacing Bargnani with Evans, Johnson until Evans returns, the Raptors will significantly improve their rebounding in their starting lineup.
I also support having a rebounder(like Amir) starting this game as the starter center(Bargs or Amir – lets hope its the latter)as the starter will have their hands full with Noah on the boards(that guy is a beast). Triano, there is no point starting Derozan again(I don’t know why Bosh can not call out Derozan’s ass like Kobe did to Bynum – poor leadership perhaps?), start Wright(but tell him to stop chucking shots, if he does, bench his ass! and bring Weems off the bench!(at least Weems can play average defense)). I just want to chip in a thought about the FA 2010, and no, teams like New York will not have Wade and LeBron during the sweepstakes. Guess the team that will likely be a contender with both LeBron and Wade(if they ever decide to leave their team)? Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls.
Why Miami Heat:-
1. They have a scoring SG in Wade.
2. Wade can also run the offense as a point guard.
3. LeBron will like this team because between himself and Wade, you expect 50 points per night and great interior defense(LeBron’s and Wade’s block and steals) even with a lot left in the tank for the playoffs for both stars.
4. Bosh(if he decides to leave, which I am sure he will because of the mediocre players, he is playing with) will be a starting PF. Beasley can learn from Bosh. Not much offensive output will be needed from Bosh(18-20 ppg) but his role will be to crash the boards(which he is showing this season).
In conclusion, you expect 68-70 ppg from three starters(which is scary?). However, it is an anti-Orlando system(without consistent 3 point shooters except if Wade, Dequan Cook and Mario Chamlmers decide to become 3pt threats).
The verdict:- This is a 60-65 win team. They will win a lot of games but they will not be able to come back from deficits(no consistent 3pt threat – faster way to get back into the game). However, the losses will be rare. This team will win a title once it is assembled.
Why Chicago?
1.They have an all-star and future Hall-of-Famer point guard in Derrick Rose.
2.They have an hustle Center in Noah who is ready to be the garbage man in Noah collecting key offensive and defensive rebounds(12 rebounds sounds about right for this kid).
3. They have athletic players in Noah and Tyrus Thomas. It shows the team needs only 1-2 stars to become a contender for the championship.
4.Bosh going to this team gives them another garbage man who can hustle for rebounds(12 rebounds per game).
5.LeBron and Wade come in with 50 ppg, 6 steals per game, 7 assists per game and 5 blocks per game. That is a crazy interior presence.
In conclusion, this will be a crazy defensive team. I and Oakley will like the toughness on this team. However, consistent 3pt shooting will be the bane of this team(Why did they lose Gordon? Will have been the most perfect team for FA 2010). However, veteran 3pt shooters ala Michael Finley and others will join this team if they want an easy championship ring.
Verdict:- The Chicago option is better. They are a 63-68 win team(ala the Celtics of 08). However, inconsistent 3pt shooting will lead to some rare losses(unless a veteran 3pt shooter joins which is most likely).
In final conclusion, an addition of a coach like Phil Jackson, John Kuester(defensive guru, the guy who made sure the Cavs were not defensively embarrassed last year unlike this year) or even Flip Saunders(though a lot of critics will not agree, I see you points) will be the final icing on the cake. I see this team as the 80 Showtime Lakers, the 90’s Chicago Bulls and the 90’s Spurs.
Raptor fans, what are your opinions about the most likely winners of FA 2010? I want to hear your opinions.
Here is another way to look at it
Bargnani’s rebound percentage in 11.1%
Johnson’s rebound percentage is 15.1%
Evans’s career rebound percentage is 20.8%
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
Those stats sound right to me, but you can’t make the mistake of extrapolating them over 48 minutes. Reggie Evans can’t play more than 20 minute a game just because of the intensity he plays with.
I’d be interested to know what our overall defensive rebounding percentage is as a whole when Bargani’s playing and when he’s not. Also, looking at DREB% without considering who’s playing the point can also lead to red herrings, not nearly enough attention is paid to how allowing penetration affects rebounding position of big men.
I am very aware of the numbers you’ve posted, however Bargs’s rebounding percentages (the only stat I’m interested in is that one. The others are banal.) are career highs so far, and he’s getting mixed messages from the coaching staff. Tell him to stay at home and box out and his percentages will be more like average for a center.
He’s a sensational offensive player who should be playing as a starter and getting more shots. He’s one of the only regulars with a higher Offensive Rating than Defensive Rating.
Actually, Bargnani HAS been playing horrible defense. He’s incredibly slow on help defense, has played badly on the pick and roll defense, gets lit up by any opposing player who shoots from outside, and can’t seem to keep the opposing team off the offensive boards. Well, he has gotten a few blocks, which was nice, but there is no way that Bargnani has been playing anything other than bad defense.
He has played bad pick and roll d, like the whole team. They all seem confused about what they should be doing to stop the PnR.
Bargs may not be a good help defender, but he is a good post defender. That’s what they should be asking him to do, not things he isn’t good at.
I agree he isn’t grabbing enough defensive boards, but he should be asked to stay in the post all the time, not wander around putting his hand in someone’s face on the perimeter.
I actually think pairing up Evans and Bargs up on the front court would work. One scorer who plays outside, and one nasty guy playing in the paint hussling his butt off.
The Bulls may win it on Noah’s awesome rebounding, like the Spurs. Last night, Noah devastated the Nuggets on the offensive glass. He kept them in the game and rebounded a missed free throw that allowed the Bulls to take a last second shot that almost won it. I’m not sure the Bulls have enough firepower to outscore the Raps, but the Raps could have an off shooting night, or the Bulls could get hot.
If the Bulls offered Noah and Hinrich for Bargs and Caldy, I might say yes.
That is a no-brainer for Bryan. But if this trade happens, this will be like the Timberwolves gifting Garnett and the Seatle Supersonics gifting Ray Allen to the Celtics(won the next year). The trade to the Celtics will definitely count as one of the worst trades in the NBA L. A definite trade will be Bargs for Brooke Lopez, as NJ Nets might want an offensive kind of game and Bargs can suit the bill while we need Lopez for the rebounds, blocks and excellent interior presence. Another trade that might work will be Bargs for Andris Biedrins(why it will work? GSW’s GM and coach are really retarded, they love running and gunning, so I won’t be surprised if they pulled out that kind of trade or gifted another player again). We might even prey on GSW’s intelligence again by prising away Stephen Jackson out of GSW for draft picks(for a real and definite 2 guard who can defend the perimeter(which has always being Raps problem) and for the critics, Captain Jack is not a cancer on any team but he wants to win like any leader(and he will prefer the Raps to GSW at this stage(at least the Raps are better than GSW will ever be, GSW as a team is really a joke)) . This might be the trades that will allow Bosh to stay after this year if they happen immediately in the off-season(before Bosh changes his mind and decides to leaves the Raps for FA 2010 because let us face it as Raptor fans, this year’s bunch of players are mediocre over-paid players which Bosh does not deserve as team-mates)
When is R Evans coming back to play?
A few weeks yet, from what I’ve heard.
How many minutes does DeRozan play before he gets pulled? I say 3 minutes.
Triano has repeatedly stated “..this team has guys who can shoot, but they must learn to play as a team on defense … and that will take time”.
Of course with every blowout loss, skittish Raps fans will begin to question the athleticism of the players … because playing effective defense requires a max physical effort combined with bball IQ. If you have one without the other, the defense will suck … believe it.
I just added the TrueHoop Blogger’s take:
What has been the biggest surprise of the season so far?
The biggest surprise has probably been the team’s godawful shooting, led by a slumping John Salmons. A close second is the stellar play of Joakim Noah, who has really taken a step forward this season. A very quiet surprise has been the team’s defense. After being almost non-existent last season, they are ranked 8th in defensive efficiency.
What the Bulls realistically hoping to achieve this year?
They want to earn the fourth or fifth seed. It’s possible…but they’re going to have to come out of January with a plus-.500 record. That’ll be hard, because they have some very difficult road stretches through the first three months.
How are you guys doing without Ben Gordon?
The team defense has improved, but the Bulls really miss BG on offense. Obviously, Chicago has become the worst three-point shooting team in the league. Opposing teams are clogging the paint and daring the Bulls to beat them from the outside, which is killing D-Rose’s drives. The team also doesn’t yet have a designated closer, which makes end-of-game situations a bit of a crap shoot. But there was bound to be a transitional phase.
Worst three point shooting team in the league…..here comes a real test !!! Watch tonight is the night they break out !!!
soooooooooooooooo F******* true , wont be suprised if they bulls shot 45% from the 3 point line tonight
Even if they shot 20% for 3’s, we would still loose if they get all the rebounds!
all 3 of our wins have been against teams playing on the second night of a back to back…keep the streak alive!
oh wait nevermind. ignore that.
Considering that Calderon had his way with Rose last season (Raptors won all 3 games he played), Rose is still not over his ankle injury and he played 39 minutes last night, I think Calderon should do well tonight.
And Raptor fans should play close attention to the Bulls defense, which is what the Raptors are TRYING to do. The Bulls just do it well.
Here’s my preview…
http://www.wearingfilm.com/picketfence/2009/11/bulls-raptors-preview/
Think tonite would be a great time to give Weems some burn.. Id like to see if he could be that defensive stopper we could be missing on the starting unit
One Trackback
[...] By A-Dub Coming off a deflating loss to a decimated Spurs team, one thing has become particularly evident: this outfit will live and die through its offense. Basically, you score on us and we’ll score on you and let’s see who’s ahead after 48 minutes. …Read Original Story: Bull-ish on defense – Raptors Republic – ESPN True Hoop Network Aff… [...]