Check out the preview for tonight’s game. Two weeks into the season we’re 3-3 and nobody should be complaining too much. There have been ups and downs, the ups have mostly come from our highly efficient offense and the downs from our porous looking defense. If you average the two you out you’re likely to find some solace in the way the Raptors have started this season. The early conservative estimates were 1-5 or 2-4 at this point and .500 is just dandy for me. We got four games this week and if we can go 2-2 in this little stretch we would have weathered a pretty big early storm. Before we get to some of the details, check out the podcast (approx. 30 minutes) with RapsFan and A-Dub summing up and looking ahead, even Milt Palacio’s name comes up. Click on the play button below or listen directly in iTunes, you can also download the file.
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So, what to make of this team so far? Let’s check out the positives, negatives and the so-so’s.
Positives:
Chris Bosh: 28.5/11.8 on 52.6% shooting. Remember those MVP chants last year which we all knew were disingenuous? Well, if the home crowd chants that right now I doubt Vince would shrug it off. He’s been the most aggressive Raptor and is playing harder than he has ever before. Not sure how much of it is the upper body strength which has allowed him to bang on the boards, especially the offensive ones. It could also be a looser role where he’s not the first option on each play, thus allowing him to wander on offense and play like a baller instead of in a defined robotic role. Whatever it is, if he keeps this going he’ll be in MVP conversation at the very least when the season ends. That’s a big if though as last year he started tailing off right about now. I could be convinced to give this Chris Bosh max-money. However, the consistent defense is an issue as we saw against the Mavericks and the Magic. Early days.
Team Offense: 4th in the league in scoring at 107ppg and shooting 47%. This is with Jack, Belinelli and Calderon all having very so-so starts to the season and the offense not being fully installed yet. This is largely thanks to Bargnani and Bosh who are producing 46% of the Raptors’ offense (295 of 642 points). Bargnani’s shooting 52% for the year and if he keeps that number up, many can look past his rebounding. Speaking of that, he’s averaging 6.8rpg which is up 1.5 from last year. Hedo’s influence on the offense has been great and although he’s only had a couple massive quarters so far, he’s slowly but surely finding his space in our sets.
Bargnani’s Defense: Whichever side of the fence you’re on with him, you have to admit that you haven’t seen nearly as many of his ‘moments’ where he’s ball-watching. Yes, jogging backwards after taking a three instead of trying to get the offensive rebound is a bit lame, but overall, he’s held his ground reasonably well against Howard, Wallace and Nowitzki. And as I already said, a 1.5 increase in RPG is great and the added defensive effort hasn’t had an impact on his legs as he’s shooting a blistering 52% from three. Caution to the wind, part of the rebounding increase has been due to more minutes, his rebounding per 48 is up only 0.3 from last year – 7.8 to 8.1.
Negatives:
Team Defense: The defensive work of Calderon and Jack has so far been poor; both have consistently been exploited and other than a quarter in New Orleans, have looked very susceptible to penetration. The fitness level is open to questioning and we’re seeing too many quarter-long defensive lapses which have already cost us two games (Mavericks 3rd and Magic 2nd). This was the chief focus in pre-season so forgive me for holding it to a higher standard than a 29th place defensive rating (116.8 points allowed per 100 possessions).
Bench production: Jack’s AST/TO ratio is 1.78:1 and he’s shooting 35%. The second unit comes out playing hard but other than against Detroit, hasn’t provided the lift in energy that’s required of them. Belinelli hasn’t established himself as a regular off the bench and is misfiring on some very clean looks. The overall percentage is respectable at 45% (14-31) but his impact has been minimal and he’s been the 8th or 9th in the rotation behind (Jack, Wright, Johnson). It hasn’t come back to seriously hurt us because we’re firing on all cylinders but over the long run we need him.
Coming along…
Johnson: After a very bad start to the season where he couldn’t stay on the floor for more than two minutes, Amir Johnson’s being more aggressive and it has translated to some rebounds, in last week’s games he got 5, 6 and 7 rebounds. He’s third on the team in rebounding per 48 and is playing harder, if not smarter. The offense is still a long ways away and unless he’s got an uncontested dunk in front of him, he wobbles.
DeRozan: The rookie had a positive week but was the victim of some unexplainable substitutions which broke his early rhythm (against Chicago and Dallas). We’d all like to hear Devlin call his name more often and I don’t see Triano doing that because of all the other offensive options. It’s time for the rookie to be a little selfish in the opportunities that the offense presents to him. He’s the last guy on the floor the defense is worrying about and that alone should get you 4-5 good looks a game.
Wright: If you need a spark on defense, go to him. If you need to space out the floor, he’s the last guy you call on. Therein lies the conundrum, we lost Kapono who could space the floor but sucked at D, we gained Wright who’s a good defender but is a career 29% shooter from three. The 1-9 in Dallas was hard to watch and teams will continue to cheat off of him in order to deal better with Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu. If only Belinelli could be a solid defender at the SG, our issues would be solved. The art of hiding a player’s weakness while playing to his strengths is where coaches earn their money and Triano’s got two subjects in Belinelli and Wright.
Looking ahead
Mon @ SAS: The 2-3 Spurs are missing Parker and are considered to be ’struggling’. However, the Raptors have served as the perfect antidote for struggling teams; the Spurs will come out looking to get a home W against an opponent that they consider to be inferior. The Raptors did pick up a win here last year so anything’s possible.
Wed vs CHI: Like the Raptors, the Bulls have collected a couple impressive scalps already by beating San Antonio and Cleveland. This game will be the second of a back-to-back for them so we’ll be looking to go 3-0 when that’s the case. Despite shooting only 42%, the Bulls have four games and that’s because they’re rebounding their misses. Fifth in the league in total and offensive rebounds, they wield two players averaging more than 10 rpg – Deng and Noah.
Fri @ LAC: There aren’t many easy nights out West but this one could be just that with the Clippers missing rookie Blake Griffin. After starting out 0-4, they’ve reeled off three straight wins against Minnesota, Golden State and Memphis, teams that could be considered in the same tier as them. Baron Davis is still shooting 40% but Kaman and Camby are at 23/10 and 10/10. The Raptors will not only have to deal with the explosiveness of Davis (can Jack finally slow down a good G), they’ll have to keep their big bigs off the boards.
Sun @ PHO: Phoenix is red hot at 6-1. We haven’t beaten them at home or away since they acquired Nash so it’s going to be hard to come away with a win here. We’ll get a chance to run up and down the court which is not what you want to do because that’s what they want you to do. Slowing the game down into a possession battle (like when they had Shaq) is the way to beat them. This would be a most impressive win and I do believe we have the tools to pull it off, it’s a question of our defense disrupting the Nash/Amare pick ‘n roll and staying with their shooters. Easier said than done.
Raps Fan says 3-1 with the loss coming in Phoenix, A-Dub says 1-3 with the win coming at home against Chicago, and I go with 2-2 and see the Raptors winning against Chicago and the Clippers.
34 Raps
Arse, good point on Belinelli/Jack. If they play the way they’re capable off this team is set on offense. This team reminds of the 06-07 Raptors:
Garbajosa = Wright/Evans
TJ Ford = Jack
Parker = Turkoglu
Mo Pete = DeRozan/Belinelli
Offense is our strength but unlike the 07 team I think this one is better equipped to defend because of Wright and Evans. Amir is also an X-factor and he’s coming out his slump.
I’m going for 2-2 but the wins coming tonight and against the Bulls.
Also, I’d put DeRozan in the positives instead of the so-so’s. He can’t do much more than he has, he has no plays called for him and gets a quick hook…
DeRozan’s role for the time being is to play defense,and do the complimentary things, rebounds, assists, steals etc., and make the 15 ft jumpers when open ocasionally, as well as FT’s. No excuse to not make free throws.
ESPN’s Mark Stein says Duncan’s out.
Nice article. Very insightful, concise and accurate without the unnecceassary drama. I still beleive DD should be coming off the bench and giving more opportunities to generate his own offense while Wright would add the needed D on the starting unit. I watched the OKC/Laker game last night. They started Sefolosha for his defensive presence which was outstanding against Kobe and brought Harden off the bench. If Harden is coming off the bench, there is no reason DD can’t,
Thabo is a defensive monster.
Looking forward to Wednesday.
Another big test against a team the Raps are directly competing against for playoff position.
Raptors have to protect the home court!
Looks like a 2-2 stretch is very possible but the team seems a bit ahead of where they should be. Who knows?
Why did it sound at times in the background like the lifeform tracking device in the Aliens movie?!
LMAO
one of the guys mic levels was too hot.
If we can contain Ginobili, tonight is a win. Duncan is on his last legs, and he’ll be solid as usual, but I think its Manu who can go off any given night..it’ll be fun to see a Belinelli vs Ginobili matchup.
It wasn’t fun. At all.
Hate to admit it, but Hollinger and all the ESPN analysts were at half-right. This team is exactly as schizophrenic as they thought it would be.
So far they have displayed a balanced personality . Lost to 2 teams that are better than them on paper (Orlando and Dallas) and beat two teams that are better than them on paper (Cleveland and N.O.) . They split the two games were the result could have gone either way.
Their record is balanced over all, but within a game they can drop 40 points in a quarter or give up 40 points in a quarter.
They either lose badly or win decisively. Would love to see how this group reacts in a close game with 2 minutes left.
I wouldn’t say NO are better on paper. They have one superstar and a bunch of stiffs 5 years away from being eligable for a pension
I wouldn’t credit these analysts with any sort of crystal-ball, all-seeing-eye type of accuracy just yet. It is a team with 9 new players and just 6 games in. Lets wait until game 20 or so, shall we?
We’re lucky to draw San Antonio early in the season — they’re one of the last teams you wanna see late.
Hey, did anyone notice Nathan Jawai put up 16 and six last night for Minnesota? Albeit, it was in extended garbage time in a 23 point loss to Portland.
Who cares, c’mon Aussie!! Speaking of which, anybody patty mills would be better as a third point guard than Quincy
Sorry, anybody THINK patty mills
First time one of your articles hasn’t been knocking on the Raps every chance it gets. Solid read. But why so much hate for Belinelli? He’s not nearly as much of a defensive liability as you’re making him out to be.
Oh c’mon, that’s not true. And ‘hate’ for Belinelli? I’m pointing out facts and stats most of the time and it’s too often interpreted for something else. Fact is that over the last three years this team has generally sucked and it’s hard to write positive articles about something that overall sucks even though it might have one or two good things brewing here and there. I think I’ve been fair towards everyone, even Jose.
“Check out the Raptors. They’re the best offensive team in the league, but the second worst defensive squad. The Magic, Kings, Spurs and Grizzlies are also among the top 10 offenses and bottom 10 defenses. Meanwhile, the Bucks, Bobcats, Thunder and Bulls are on the opposite end of the spectrum: strong defensively but unable to put the ball in the bucket.
The teams that find ways to improve on one end of the floor without sacrificing the other end will be the ones that rise to the top.”
NBA.com power-rankings
Actually, the teams which are good defensively are already rising.
http://www.slamonline.com/online/blogs/the-links/2009/11/links-future-shock/
Hmmm, yet another article on Brandon Jennings… wonder why the media doesn’t talk this much about Jose?
BTW wasn’t it Maurizio Gherardini’s job to scout Europe and find the “hidden gems” that played there. Some services he provided…
Jennings didn’t play much in Europe, and our one absolute “need” coming into the draft was a swing man, not a point guard.
You should read the times article on Jeremy Tyler, I’ve never heard such a little bitch before in my life
breaking news no duncan and paker we should win this one
JOKE !!!!!
slippery floor? no game?
What was even funnier about the floor was: when a Raptor slipped, it was a turnover. When a Spurs’ player slipped, it was a foul.
Yeah that whole slippery floor thing was absolute bullshit. Yeah, we got outplayed, so I’m not making excuses, but Triano totally should have marched his guys back to the locker room and refused to play. Not because he had a legitimate beef or anything, just because he should have known the Spurs were going to jump on us. But he didn’t want to do it because he didn’t want to make a scene and piss off all those poor Spurs fans. I love Triano, but the dude is far too nice to be a head coach in this league.
I think Antoine Wright can defend the point guard position at a high level. He does his best work defensively against smaller guards.
I do worry about Jose or Jack defending a two guard. It would need to be against non-offensive threats.
I do like Hedo Turkoglu running the point offensively with Wright defending the position. That would be a good lineup. Especially if Belinelli is the two guard because he’s a very good ball handler and passer at that position.