The Raptors are 1-1 on the first half of this Western swing; I’ll take it. In fact, in the last 8 quarters, the Raptors have only played poorly in 2 (maybe 3, but the second quarter in Dallas can’t be considered horrible) of them. Tonight, they roll into the AT&T Center to face the Spurs, a team many of us (me included) circled as a loss. With Duncan on his last legs, they brought in Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson, this summer, to try and make a final run or two at their 5th championship. I for one am a big fan of this organization, jealous in fact. For over a decade, this team has been a perennial power through great drafting, free agent signings, player development and a bit of luck.
The Spurs are 2-3 so far this season, with both wins coming at home to lesser teams: New Orleans and Sacramento. The story tonight is that Tony Parker will be out with a sprained ankle. He is only expected to miss a week, but he is the cog that powers the Spurs engine. We talked about it in the podcast that should be going up at some point today, but looking at the next four games (Spurs, Bulls, Clippers and Suns) we could go 3-1. I realize this is seriously optimistic, but the one thing the Raptors have done very well this season is take advantage when their opponents have shown any weakness.
Match-ups
The Point: With Calderon returning, albeit slowly, to form the last two games, and Jack leading the 2nd unit, we look good in this match-up. The combination of Roger Mason Jr. and George Hill doesn’t really strick fear into my heart. Mason has carved out a nice niche for himself, but he’s a spot up shooter, who doesn’t have the ability to break down defenses off the dribble. Don’t know much about Hill, but I am guessing there isn’t much there, not saying he sucks, but that Jack should be able to handle him.
The Edge: Raptors
The Skill: DeRozan is coming off his worst game as a Raptor, so is Belinelli. Big time gut check for our rook, as he comes face-to-face with one of the best in the game: Ginobili. For the last couple seasons, Manu has come off the bench, but plays starter minutes. Wright should split time at 2 and 3, helping on the defensive end, but since he wont be playing the whole game, Ginobili is primed to go off.
The Edge: Spurs
The Swingman: Turkoglu is also coming off his worst showing of the season, and should be good to make up for it. The pick-n-roll with Bosh will be crucial, as the Spurs always fight through them, and rarely switch, giving Hedo a bit of space to operate. This is where things start to get interesting. The Spurs went out and got Jefferson for close to nothing. Jefferson, as we all know, is a Raptor killer. Every-time he has played us over the last few years, he has come up big when it mattered. He has started the season slow, but dropped 19 in a losing effort to the Blazers on Friday, in fact, he had the most impact during the game (check the player impact chart).
The Edge: Even
The Big: This is where match-ups become interesting. The Spurs are rotating Duncan/Bonner/McDyess/Blair in at the 4/5. For the most part, Bonner is getting the nod at 4, which means Bosh is licking his chops. I like Bonner, always have, but he has a long night in store. Between covering Bosh in the paint, and Bargnani on the perimeter, my guess is that his minutes will be limited. If McDyess isn’t injured, he will be getting the bulk of the minutes at the other forward position. If he is, Bonner and Blair will be splitting time. Regardless, I like Chris in this match-up. Our boy is putting up MVP calibre numbers to start the year, with most of his damage coming in the paint.
The Edge: Raptors
The Strong: Bargnani is the reason that Duncan will not be covering Bosh, IMHO. Bonner/McDyess/Blair can’t be on the perimeter chasing VL around. I mean, Bonner could, but he wont do a good job; McDyess plays better post defense; and Blair is a rookie who will make rookie mistakes. Bargnani hasn’t really played poorly so far this season. Our boy needs touches, and in an effort to keep Duncan on his heels, will have plenty this game. Duncan needs to be attacked from the opening tip, which is easier said then done.
The Edge: Raptors (sorry, I had put Spurs, but meant to put Raptors here)
Keys to Winning
- Attack Duncan off the dribble. His knee is suspect
- Calderon/Jack need to push the ball at all times, the Spurs point situation is more suspect then Duncan’s knees
- Don’t be afraid to play Wright more at the 2 if DeRozan is getting lit up by Manu
- Rebound the hell out of the ball. Portland grabbed 48 to the Spurs 37 on Friday, they are vulnerable here
Injury Report
Raptors
Reggie Evans
Spurs
Tony Parker
Antonio McDyess (playing hurt)
The Line
The Spurs are -6.5 favourites with an over/under of 202.5
Prediction
The Raptors need to take advantage of Parker’s injury, but it wont be easy. This is a veteran, battle tested team that wont let up. I said in the podcast that this is the type of game the Raptors can win, and they could easily be 3-1 this week, but I don’t think it will happen: Spurs by 8 (I’m 2-2 with predictions so far).
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66 Raps
I have yet to see a Raptor team take advantage of a team missing one of their stars…My hope, is that tonight we turn the page.
Well, NO was definitely missing Tyson Chandler ;)
NO seems to have misplaced their heart as well.
Detroit was missing Prince and Hamilton…..
true,my bad.
Orlando was missing Vince and Rashard.
Orlando played BETTER without Vince!
I look the “Beast of the Boards” to gather in 15 plus tonight unless the Raptors shoot over 50%. This is a game that the Raptors could really have used Evans. No one else on the Raptors comes close to matching the strength of Blair.
Note: Johnson has done well in the past guarding Bonner pretty much neutralizing him even though Johnson doesn’t score.
Blair has the highest PER among all rookies
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=per&qual=true&pos=rookies&seasonType=2&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fhollinger%2fstatistics%3fsort%3dper%26qual%3dtrue%26pos%3drookies%26seasonType%3d2
He is pulling down 14.7 rebounds per 36 minutes while playing about 19 mpg.
Superman by comparison is pulling down 13.2 rebounds per 36 minutes.
CB4 is at 11.9 per 36 minutes
I hate PER stats. They don’t mean that much. Im sure Greg Oden could have great PER stats, but would never be able to play that much or else he would foul out.
I do think the Raps have a sold chance tonight, in part because Parker is out, but also because of Duncan and his legs. I think the offense should be simple. Give the ball to who ever Duncan is covering at the perimeter and go to work.
Either Bosh or Bargs should be able to beat Duncan all day. If all goes well it will hopefully put him in foul trouble.
George Hill held down the fort with Tony Parker out last season. He may not be better than Calderon, but he’s a solid back up. No reason to discount his abilities.
Thanks, I wasn’t sure about the kid. Was trying to check in with a Spurs blogger, but life got in the way on that.
I guess all Hill needs to do is get the ball to Ginobili, Jefferson and Duncan…I could do that, lol.
George Hill was supposed to be their “DeRozen” and Manu’s future replacement, but it looks like the insertion of Jefferson has muddled his minutes, rotation, and flow. That kid still has a lot of athleticism and discipline though so he can be very dangerous. I just think the Spurs need about 10 games and Tony Parker to get back to their winning ways.
It just looks at time from the games on TNT with the Spurs, Jefferson doesn’t know what the hell he is doing. I’m hoping he doesn’t employ the same defensive strategy that Marion put on the Turk because that really screwed our offense up big.
I’ve seen the kid play alot and to be totally honest, I think he’s talented. I’ve been pretty impressed with what I’ve seen from him….definitely has potential.
The Raps (and their supporters)shouldn’t take any team lightly – they all have talented players.
I feel like we’re gonna get out-coached by Pop. Great coaches seem to be able to switch things up when a star is hurt and I think they’ll catch the Raps off-guard.
Great point about the ball needing to be pushed. The Spurs can’t run with us. Jack needs to lead that 2nd unit and be aggressive the entire time.
Should be a good tilt.
Hi Probability Triano gets outcoached, although to his credit, he has done a pretty decent job so far.
Rookie coaches make rookie mistakes.
But a lot of mistakes get lost if the players out-work the other guys.
Don’t know if it is my bias feelings or more athletic players on our team, but Triano is doing a steady if not great/solid job. He sticks to a good strategy, tries to takes advantage of mismatches or finds weak player IQs to exploit, and adjusts. You can see progress from him on that game in NOH when he helped guide his players disrupt CP3 on defense and render CP3 to be ineffective in a large chunk of that game.
Yeah. Pop out coaches everyone, but Triano has been really good so far. You get the sense that the players really like playing for him. I hope he becomes the Jerry Sloan of Canada
The most important thing Triano could accomplish in the short term is to be able to diversify the offense so that the opposition hesitate to put 2 men on Bosh . I know this is asking him to climb the highest mountain (Bosh would have to share the role of primary recipient of the guards passes). It may also create one of the most potent bigs combo in the league.
Great road test for the Raps.
But you can also call this an important game for the Spurs. The Spurs are in danger of becoming just another team that won’t advance in the playoffs.
Spurs rely on Duncan to win them games, if Bosh and Bargs have the big nights they should, Duncan might not have much left by the end of this one.
A 50/50 game that is very winnable if the Raptors’ bench shows up.
Duncan keeps them close in the games now, Ginobili and Parker win them games.
Also don’t forget Manu swatted a living bat, so be careful of our passing lanes.
Big fan of George Hill. Terrific defender and a good all-round player.
The Raptors big men — Bosh and Bargnani — should have big offensive games against the Spurs. I don’t think San An has anyone who can guard them. If Bosh and Bargnani follow through on that matchup advantage then I think the Spurs entire defense falls apart.
This is a good time to meet the Spurs. They’re playing well below their talent level right now. Ginobili and Jefferson are struggling. Good opportunity.
Gotta get’em when their down!
The Alamo Dome?
That’s the name of San Antonio’s stadium, isn’t it?
It’s the AT&T Center now (since 2002). People often refer to San Antonio as the Alamo.
isn’t it called the AT & T Center?
You’re not getting paid to call it the AT & T Center (or whatever soul-less name it has now). Dammit, it’s the Alamo Dome. Down with the corporate flunkies
Damnit…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alamo_Dome
vs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT%26T_Center
DeRozan and Rodney Stuckey
When Stuckey was a rookie in 2007-08 he broke one of hands during the last preseason game. As a result he was out for 2 months or so at the beginning of the season. When he did finally start to play his play was pretty bad. So much so that a lot of Pistons fans were bemoaning the fact that Dumars used a Darko trade pick (#15) to select Stuckey.
I kept telling everyone to be patient. As it turned out Billups got hurt during the playoff seriers against the Magic and Stuckey was pressed into action as a starter. He played really well against the Magic whom the Pistons beat and then went on to have a very good series againt the Celtics in the ECF although the Pistons lost.
Last season Stuckey was erratic but shows signs of why he was drafted #15, like the game in which he scored over 40 points against D. Rose and the Bulls.
This eeason he has started out playing a little more consitently good.
Fast forward to DeRozan. Last season as a freshmen at USC he started slow. However, he finished very strong over the last two months or so.
I like the idea of DeRozan starting. I hope that Triano keeps him in the starting unit because I believe if he does that sometime during the 2009-10 season and most likely after the all-star game in 2010 DeRozan will start to make a very positive contribution to the Raptors. Though I would still expect inconsistency into next season.
DeRozan has been underwelming but he is raw and will need time to bring it all together. He really looks lost on D and ironically David Thorpe raved about his form coming off of screens for the jumper and even compared him to Rip Hamilton. The irony is that he is just that bad at guarding opposing 2’s coming around screens. He looks muscular but clearly lacks the strength to finish at thew rim and get threw picks.
Side note to comment above. George hill is a PG and never was “in line” to replace Manu. I’m not sure where that came from.
I agree that he has been good replacing Parker (Pops called him his favourite player) but as in most cases its not the guy replacing the starter that has problems, its the guy who replaces the back up minutes. I think Mason will play some PG tonight and Jack better presure full court and see if we can turn them over! I liked the full court press they used in New Orleans but I think its more effective to use it 1 possession and not the next. It seems to work once and the second time the opponent gets a layup.
I am going on record saying we take this one tonite as well…i am 2-0…heres hoping I stay perfect…
Good Call.
There is no reason the Raps can’t take this game if they give 100% Will this be one of the games where they show up is the question?
“Don’t know much about Hill, but I am guessing there isn’t much there”
Don’t write him off… how many times have team’s lesser guards dominate our PGs.
Here’s part of the game preview from the spurs fansite…did anyone else do a double take upon reading the line after “..his game doesn’t end there.”?
Center
Speaking of Toronto big men having career years, check Bargs out. Go back to that link for Hollinger’s PER listings, and look at #9. He takes a lot of long-range shots like Mehmet Okur, and he makes them at a devastating clip. But unlike Okur, his game doesn’t end there. He’s also a good rebounder, and even blocks shots. Dice has a nice mid-range game, and Bonner has a nice 3-point stroke(sometimes), but both of them are vastly overmatched. Bargs is finally looking as if he may have been worth that #1 overall pick the Raps used to get him. This is our worst mismatch on the floor, and not even Theo Ratliff can defend this guy’s inside-out game.
Which spurs fan site??
I imagine fans from other cities do not know that 7 footers are supposed to get at least 10 rebounds a game.
7 footers are also not supposed to shoot three’s at a 500 clip but that obviously eludes your limited intellect as do all the other talents he has that no other 7 footer has. You should go to a team that has a 7 foot rebounder that can’t do anything else!
Pizzaman , I was being sarcastic because so many fans think Andrea should get a lot more rebounds (he will improve with time and he will become a decent rebounder for a 7 footer imo.)
Raps Fan,
RJ IS the real Raps killer…I’m still having nightmares about this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehbJKaa9EHk
If I’m Jose or Chris I’m playing this everyday I wake up. Sadly, I think this captures their lifetime playoffs careers.
Duncan isn’t playing as well sore left ankle
Man, I’m watching this game right now, and even though I’m Raps fan, I have to say this:
Raptors’ defence is just laughable. Period. What exactly did Jay work on in preseason?
It still seems that players don’t take defence to heart, or just don’t want to put in the effort. It’s ridiculous.
What’s the matter, you didn’t like the awesome Matt Bonner dribble-drive for the dunk?
That’s an egregious lapse. Poor on the ball defense cannot explain that, since Bonner couldn’t get past anyone in the league. Not even a Raps player.
Is Turkoglu worth the 50 million dollars? Since game one I did not agree that Turkoglu should have been aquired, everybody blasted me.. DO you guys now see what I meant.. And why the ban from the room? Nobody was swearing! Thats a joke
I got banned too, and I wasn’t even participating (just surfing the web elsewhere). Maybe they accidentally banned everyone…
And Turk had 20pts on 8-12 shooting. This was NOT his fault by any stretch of the imagination. Besides, as far as proving he is worth $50mil, give them until mid season. Then we can draw some conclusions.
Jesus! The “Ref Bailout Program” tonight was RIDICULOUS!
They kept the depleted Spurs in the game in the first half, and gave them the game. Raps could barely get fouls, meanwhile they could not even LOOK at Ginobilli without getting a foul.
F##CK!!!!! I hope everyone in the ENTIRE Spurs organization rots in hell. This just brings back memories of the playoff series between the Suns and the Spurs (you know, the one where Stern’s men f#cked over the Suns despite the fact that the Spurs initiated the violence with a bench-warmer, and despite the fact that Spurs players had come on the court during a semi-altercation in a previous game of that series with no punishment).
The Spurs must suck some MAJOR David Stern C*CK!
/done venting.
Stop whiiiiiiing about the ref calls
A few days ago Orlando was without 3 starters and still blew us away
and today SA sans Duncan and Parker destroy us…….
do you see a pattern here… we just arent a “good” team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Exactly. We are not as good as we hoped we are. I believe Raps can hover around .500 mark with a little bit of luck.
1. It has to be said, Turkoglu is a major disappointment so far…major.
2. You cannot breathe on Ginobili, that is in fact a foul
3. Sonny Weems!
4. I actually thought Marco did a good job on Manu
5. Doug Smith makes me laugh, saying how the Spurs are still an amazing team and how this isnt a big deal. Ginobili comes in averaging 13.5 a game and promptly throws up 36, and Doug Smith doesn’t think its that outrageous….unbelievable.
I am glad you agree. There are probably still people out there, who swear by Turkoglu. We should trade him while some teams still find a little value in him. For 50 million dollars we could have got so much more. The Portland Trailblazer’s management team is probably jumping up and down from Joy as they watch this season unravel.
Hey genius…exactly who could we have gotten for that $50 million?
Well, no one, but we could have done nothing with the money and let Bosh walk away after this season.
/sarcasm.
Ben GOrdon
That would have been even worse for our already soft defence. But even if we went with that, then we don’t have enough money left for a SF, and we would have a gapping whole there.
And a lot of these morons don’t realize that BC can’t just pick any FA from the FA bin and sign them…they have to want to play here.
Like Trevor Ariza who signed for a lot less money to play for Houston.
I agree with everything you said, except for your first point. Again, he had 20pts on 8-12 shooting. He committed a modest 3 turnovers. And one major issues I’ve seen so far: I have yet to see one game where both Jose and Turk go off for major assists.
They are still trying to figure out how to use him and Jose together. Give it ’til mid-season to judge if he is worth his contract.
These CRAaaPTORS suck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Raptors would have the best record in the league if the games were five on five games of horse.
Bargani and Calderon both need to go. Neither one could defend against Sisters of St. Marys. Calderon in particular. He must think he is back in Spain particpating in the Running of Bulls.
Despite the fact that I (for some god forsaken reason) like them, I have to say that they are softer than a ninety-year old’s junk (pre-Viagra).
Then Triano should go also because it is his strategy to clog the middle that is backfiring when the other team has good 3 points shooters.
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