Jealous of the talent on the Thunder? You’re not the only one. With Westbrook, Durant and Green headlining the roster and rookie Harden in the wings, Friday March 19th at the ACC is a night to circle on the calendar. Last year Nick Collison out-hustled Bosh on a key play to give us our worst loss of the season (at the time – much worse followed) but we got a measure of revenge in a game where we looked our best.
What do the Thunder bring us this year? We ask their ESPN TrueHoop blog, Daily Thunder and they give it to us straight.
Predicted Starting 5
Westbrook, Sefolosha, Durant, Green, Krstic
Best Offensive Player
Durant, is there any question really? He’s got a chance to be the most explosive scorer in the league. I have no idea what a scoring ceiling would be for him, because honestly, I’m not sure there are limits.
Best Defensive Player
Some people might say Russell Westbrook, and yes, Westbrook is a very nice defender. But Thabo is OKC’s lockdown guy. He can guard three positions and he absolutely changed the defensive mindset of this team when he joined late last year.
Best New Player
James Harden. He’s exactly what the Thunder needed. A scoring two-guard that can lighten the load for Durant while also giving Westbrook another bailout option. The Thunder were the worst offensive team at shooting guard last season, so the addition of Harden is just what the doctor ordered.
Player that will be missed
Desmond Mason. Statistically, he was terrible last year. Just putrid. But he was a tough defender and a local hero. We loved having him here because of what he meant to our state.
Weakest link in you top 8 rotation
Shaun Livingston. Not because of his skill or his ability, but mainly because we can’t be sure what we’ll get out of him. He says he’s 90 percent and he’s looked solid on occasion. But can he play every back-to-back? Can he handle full-time backup point guard duties? I think these questions are exactly why Sam Presti signed veteran Kevin Ollie.
Greatest weakness as a team
Youth and inexperience. The team has talent. Nobody is questioning that, but with a starting five that averages just 24 years of age and a bench that is even younger, you can’t be sure what kind of progress they’ll make. Learning to win close games is going to be key if this team is going to do any kind of damage this year.
Biggest question heading into the season
How much improvement did the team make this off-season? Not in a player acquisition sense, but a player development one. It’s all about progress for this team and Presti is relying on young players getting better. As long as they do, everything will be alright.
If I was GM for a day, I would…
Pretty much stay the course. As far as anybody can tell, nothing needs to be changed right now. Sure a big name player could help turn the team around RIGHT NOW, but Oklahoma City isn’t interested in right now. The Thunder need a shot-blocking, rebounding enforcer in the middle but instead of making a deal for one, the plan is to hopefully develop Serge Ibaka or Byron Mullens. So if I were GM, I honestly don’t know that I’d change anything right now.
My opinion of the Raptors
I think they are one of the most intriguing teams in the East. Chris Bosh is a top five or six player, but like any great player, he needs help. Hedo Turkoglu will certainly help, but I’m honestly very interested in what DeMar DeRozan can bring to the table. The East isn’t terribly difficult to make a playoff run in and I’d say the Raps are definitely in the discussion for the 7th or 8th spot.
If I had to assign a movie title to my expectations of the season, it would be…
Waiting. We are patiently waiting on OKC. Waiting for our stars to take shape, waiting for Presti to bust out his cap space, waiting for this team to win. We’re patient because right now, we’re just stoked to have a team, but at some point, we’ll be done waiting and ready to win.
W/L Prediction
I’m going with 35-47. Depending on the development of Russell Westbrook this could be more or less. We’ll just kind of have to wait and see.
33 Raps
The one question I have with OKC, much like all young talented teams, is how long will they be able to keep that talent.
I’m not talking about players wanting out of the city, but rather the $ other teams are willing and able to pay. As these guys develop how much money is OKC willing to match or exceed in order to keep these players. In addition how much extra will they have to pay (semi) talented players to surround their up and comers?
Good young teams are always exciting… but contracts do end eventually. Sometimes staying the course leads to an unforseen dead end.
I think OKC will be able to keep their young players. Aside from Durant, none of the other players on the team seem so talented that they will demand lots of money (like Aldridge did with Portland). Also, Presti’s GM-Player relations are reported to be top notch, so that may bode well for him in negotiating power.
That highlight reel makes me sick…oh to have had a number 1 pick in a different year…
Why wish for another year when we could have chosen the ROY in 2006? BC admitted that he knew that Roy was the more NBA ready player when he chose to draft Bargs. He said Bargs was a 5 year project. I agree with that, but it’s already year 4. I do think Bargs will have a great season this year, but I think pairing Bosh with Roy would have been much better for us to build around. It certainly would have kept Bosh in town.
Where were you in 2006? I loved Brandon Roy irrationally for a guy who’d only seem him play a handful of times, but even I knew he wasn’t worthy of a first overall pick. Great fundamentals, IQ, team leader, etc but he wasn’t that athletic to begin with and had knee issues in college. How many of those types have flamed out in the NBA?
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but there’s really no questioning that Bargs was the only pick to make. Implying there was even a debate at the time is disingenuous.
Just think, we could’ve had Morrison or Tyrus Thomas instead.
I don’t think Morrison or Thomas were ever really in the discussion for the top over all pick, at least I certainly hope not. I believe going into the draft the choice was going to be between Bargnani and LaMarcus Alridge.
Weren’t some people suggesting Morrison? I remember Larry Bird comparisons… /shudder
Yup, I definitely heard Morrison, Thomas, and Aldridge being bandied about as the first overall pick. Even Gay to an extent. But nobody, not one person, ever thought Roy was worth the #1 overall pick. He was supposed to be a solid #5 pick, behind all those possible #1s.
Why didn’t we pick up Gay again? I think I remember his stock dropping in that college season, but I don’t know why. I think he would’ve been a pretty good fit.
I don’t know if this is the reason why we didn’t pick him, but I remember that very few people thought he was worth a 1st overall pick. He had the talent and tools, but many questioned his motivation, or lack thereof. He seemed to coast during college ball, which didn’t bode well for his professional career I suppose. The reason why we didn’t pick him was probably more Colangelo’s obsession with Bargnani than any fault of Gay’s though.
The decision at #1 was between Bargnani and Rudy Gay, Aldridge was a distant 3rd as he plays the same position as Bosh. Those were the guys that BC was pondering.
If all the experts knew Roy was the best player why was he picked 6th?
no one said best player, they said most NBA ready…potential is what Bargs was sold on…most gms figured the long term potential of bargs far outweighed what roy would become
Yup. Not a single expert thought Roy would be the best player out of the draft. He was most ready for the NBA, but the knock on him was that he’d be a solid NBAer, nothing more, considering he didn’t do anything exceptionally well. So after all the potential #1s were picked, it was only natural to pick Roy.
Exactly, which is the reason I am criticizing BC’s decision in the 06 draft; he swung for a homerun when (he admitted this in an interview I saw) he could have taken the safe choice and choosen the most NBA ready player in Roy. Plus, at the time, we were sorely lacking scoring production on the wings, and Roy would have been a much better compliment for Bosh. Then we would have been a defensive center away from a very competitive team. Now we find ourselves in the same position 3 years later. You cannot argue with the fact that the last three years have been a wash for the Raptors, as they didn’t imrpove the team at all before this summer.
I understand what you’re saying, but it’s still totally based on hindsight. Roy is far better now than he was projected to be, so you’re using flawed logic. Nobody had these kind of expectations for him.
And why do you need an NBA ready player when Chris Bosh is your best player? He was 23 at the time, they weren’t in a ‘win now’ mode (and are barely even there now).
Imagine if Roy was the decent, non-All Star that he was projected to be. Imagine that Bargs was Dirk. It hasn’t happened that way, but 90% of people would’ve predicted that scenario over what we currently see.
Besides which, Roy being the ROY in ‘06 still doesn’t put him anywhere close to Durant.
#1 — I’m expecting Westbrook and Durant to take big steps forward this season. Westbrook with his defense, floor leadership, decision making and playmaking ability. And Durant with his defense (from putrid to passable which would be a big difference).
I’m really looking forward to watching these two play this season. One of the most exciting young duo’s in the game.
#2 — The Thunder should have signed Marcin Gortat this past summer. He’s the defender + rebounder that they sorely needed, and he came at a cheap price.
#3 — Oklahoma’s biggest problem will be acquiring another top talent. It looks like they’re planning on using almost all of their cap space on re-signing Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook.
They might not be able to get that player through free agency ($10-15 million of cap space, rather than $20-25mil) … and it doesn’t look like they have the makings of a contender without another elite talent.
So it’ll be interesting to see how Presti handles this situation over the next two off-seasons.
Thunder need a guaranteed rebounding gobbler and shot blocker who can stay on the team for 6 years straight (11-12 RPG, 2BPG) to become playoff contenders. This team does not have enough prime beef in the front court to push them over the 0.500 hump. I can say they are one solid, if not NBA All-Star post player away from playoff contention.
Oklahoma had a dreadful start to last season posting a W-L record of 4-30 by New Year’s. From then on, the Thunder played .400 basketball (19-29).
If Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook can take the next step in their careers (plus the addition of James Harden) then the Thunder can be a threat to play .500 ball next season.
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I fully agree, the Thunder badly need a very good-to-elite rebounder/defender in the post. I don’t think they can get away with playing Jeff Green at the power forward slot long term without that type of center in the lineup.
Durant, Green and Westbrook have rather affordable team options next season. Re-signing all three would only put them at about $35 mil in payroll. I don’t know who’s available next off-season but assuming a $50-53 mil salary cap, they’ll have at least $15 mil available. If the salary cap is at least ~$52 mil, they’ll have enough room to sign someone to a max contract, and then fill the remaining 3 roster spots with exceptions or minimum salary players. That’s a pretty good start, not too different from Portland a few years back with all the young talent.
It’s not their cap situation in 2010 that is the issue … it’s their cap situation in 2012 after they sign Durant, Green and Westbrook to their contract extensions.
Problem being, the center is the most difficult piece to acquire. Why do you think Tyson Chandler still has a job, despite his numerous injuries?
There are plenty of nice, young, athletic wings and guards out there–problem is there aren’t many centers.
And the ones they could try to get on the back end of their careers are retiring soon.
Has Presti made good picks? Certainly. But unless he starts to spend (some money/trade one of his young horses) on a legitimate center, then they’ve basically shat the bed on a five hundred team. Sure, they made money and got buts in the seats–but they won’t win enough.
Portland is the same. If you keep stockpiling young talent, you don’t give it enough space to grow. It’s like a garden, where too many flowers choke each other off. At some point you have to use those assets to acquire what you need. Portland’s record was nice and all, and statistically they were the top team offensively in the NBA–and they got beat by a team without it’s two all-stars. Pathetic.
The thing is, these GM’s are so married to their young talent and they never trade it away. How long does Outlaw have to stay a Blazer? How long does it take to trade someone valuable. You don’t get to have your cake and eat it too. SOME risk taking is required.
The owners and GM’s who keep trying this approach generally fail because
a) They run out of money to pay all the young talent
b) The young talent gets tired of waiting to be good
c) of course some of the players don’t turn out well
There needs to be a mix for success, one that I don’t think Pritchard and Presti want to pay for.
One of the major issues this blogger touched on was the fact that the Western Conference is so tough to begin with. I guess the problem for most franchises in the West is that they see no way to be competitive (for something significant–like a championship) at all in the short term. This way, they can sell hope to the fan base without actually ever having to be good for quite some time, in addition to it being cheap so they can try to “wait for their window”.
Sometimes, the window needs to be forced open. As the wise swami says…we’ll see.
Why undergo a slow rebuild and put your team on the road to an eventual championship when you can simply hire Jerry Colangelo’s son as a GM and maybe make the playoffs two years out of every four? Who wants a long-term rebuild when we can simply throw the big dollars after Hedo and Jack and maybe make the first round of the playoffs today? Not me. I like knowing our good years are the ones in which we push “Class A” opponents to six games in the first round – thank you very much. No long term rebuild for this cat.
Besides, how would it look if people always judged you because your dad gave you your only job as a GM, and then the first time you step out on your own, you end up turning someone else’s team into a cellar dweller? Not because you didn’t spend to the luxury tax, mind you, or because you wanted to undergo a youth movement and build through the draft – but because the best team you’d ever assembled won only 31 games. How would it look if you had to admit that you needed to start over and grit your teeth through a couple more 30 win seasons like the Thunder? It might spoil your special Italian suit, let me tell you. People might stop talking about how dapper you and your clothes are…and they might start talking about something more substantive.
Love the mis-quotes, errors and assumptions. Always leads to an reasonable argument.
Oh yes, the road to the “eventual” championship.
How long till we get there again?
How long? That’s a good question, David.
I’ve been a Raptor fan for 15 years. We won 1 playoff series in that time – I think we beat Allan Houston and the Knicks. I think we won 30 games our second year as a franchise, back in 1996, with Damon Stoudamire. We won 31 last season – our 15th in the league. In 2025, I’m hoping we aren’t coming off a 32 win campaign, waxing all nostalgic about an Atlantic Division title we won back in ‘07.
1983-84 Chicago Bulls won 27 games…15 years later, the Bulls won 17 games! My god, they regressed 10 games in 15 years! Where will they be in the future???
I assume the GM you’re talking about in your oh-so-coy way is Bryan Colangelo, the 2-time GM of the year. I’m not sure what ‘cellar dweller’ you’re talking about, the Raps I’ve watched for 3 years made the playoffs in 2 of them and, after a failed experiment in year 3, intelligently gave himself flexibility to overhaul his team in the summer.
Is this not a rebuild? Keeping your 3 best players from the last 3 seasons and getting rid of those that didn’t work? In your world, after a 5 game loss in the ‘08 playoffs you would’ve shipped out Bosh (then a 3-time all-star), Bargnani (in his 2nd year after being a #1 overall pick) and everyone else for not meeting your expectations. Then rebuilding after that sweet #17 pick that yielded the franchise player Roy Hibbert!
Why would anyone try to win NOW (when you have the talent to do it) when you can take a chance on the uncertain?
I’m sorry – you are right Macy. Its been a great 15 years. Lots of success – we were just like those Chicago Bulls teams during that 15 year period you referenced. I guess the regression was easier for them to take after winning 6 titles in between time. And the Raptors did push Philly to 7 games in the second round in 2001 – so I see where the comparison is warranted. So I take it all back.
(Though, by cellar dweller, I did mean we finished one game from the bottom of the Atlantic division last season. Though by rebuild, I did mean like Oklahoma – not like the Toronto Maple Leafs).
I can’t take it anymore, please start the season now!
Greatest weakness as a team
Youth and inexperience. The team has talent. Nobody is questioning that, but with a starting five that averages just 24 years of age and a bench that is even younger, you can’t be sure what kind of progress they’ll make. Learning to win close games is going to be key if this team is going to do any kind of damage this year.
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Greatest weakness
1. Horrible interior defense
2. Mediocre defensive rebounding
3. Very weak bench
4. Don’t know how to win
At this point the Thunder can be a lot of fun to watch especially when they have it going on offense. KD is one of the best scorers and shooters in the league.
However, whether this core unit will ever be able to consistently win is still totally unkown and will depend on seeing is believing.
Have to say no. Not jealous.
Wouldn’t mind one of their potential stars in a Raptors uniform though.
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