Tom is an Equity Research Analyst by day and a long-time Raptors supporter at night. You can contact him by email (tomliston at hotmail.com) or follow him on Twitter
45 Wins
There is a ton of speculation on where the Raptors will land in the standings next year. There is a low of 39 wins – and just out of the playoffs – and plenty of optimistic 50+ win predictions on the chat boards.
I, like many, think it’s difficult to speculate. However, I believe there are a few keys IF the Raptors are to get somewhere in the 45 win range – which would likely place them in the 4 to 6 spot in the East. However, I believe meeting this goal may be a stretch.
So, what needs to happen in order to get there (i.e. ~ 45 wins)?
1) Defence – reduce the opponent’s FG percentage by 1% from last year. Doesn’t sound like much, but over the last few years, holding your opponent’s FG to 45.5% or better generally translated into 45 or more wins. See my earlier article for some further detail.
In Toronto’s wins last year, the Raptors held its opponents to a 42.3% FG% while losses on average were due to 49.3% FG% shooting by its opponents.
So what about that “magic” number of 45.5% above? It seems it was a key number for the Raps last season as well:
>45.5% Opponent’s FG
Wins 8 17%
Losses 39 83%
<45.5% Opponent’s FG
Wins 25 71%
Losses 10 29%
Jay Triano, in an excellent interview by TSN’s Tim Chisholm, seems to agree:
“We have to have a toughness and a desire to want to play defense. I mean, the best teams in the league are the best defensive teams. We were twenty-first in field goal percentage allowed last year, and that’s why we weren’t in the Playoffs.”
The key here, I believe, is to have our perimeter defence force the PG or wings away from the middle. It’s much easier to trap in the corners, while allowing penetration up the middle most often leads to an easy dish for a score or foul.
2) Andrea Bargnani stepping up. Bear with me here – we’ll take a couple of different angles. First I tried the “Wins Produced” approach on the new Raptors roster and had a result of 46.7 wins. Before we all get excited there are two significant issues: 1) it is tough to use last year’s numbers to project forward given all the changes to the roster and 2) the author (Berri) properly noted to me that the error rate goes up (long story) by calculating it this way. So, let’s keep it simple. In past years, using Berri’s work, Calderon and Bosh produce roughly 23 wins when reasonably healthy. Thus, we need to “find” 22 more. Last year, Turkoglu “produced” 6.7 wins while Evans was pegged at 2.6 wins produced. Given that both will likely see even a small bump in rebounds, we’ll round this number to 10. Jarrett Jack (3-4), Amir Johnson (~2, but has upside), Rasho Nesterovic (~1), and Marco Belinelli (~1) give us another 7 or so. Thus, we more or less need Bargnani to account for at least 5 wins.
So, Andrea Bargnani needs to become….. Brad Miller?!!
Brad Miller didn’t get a lot of national TV attention in his career given he was stuck in Sacramento the last number of years. However, in the playoffs (especially vs Boston, game 6) we saw his versatility. While everything but flashy (and despite the bad tattoos), he is an effective center. And I submit that if Bargnani could replicate his effectiveness, we would have a solid shot at producing > 45 wins. Below is a comparison – with several metrics using a per 48 minute base.
| Player | Age | G | MP | FG% | 3P% | FT% | ORB/48 | DRB/48 | REB/48 |
| Bargnani | 23 | 78 | 2453 | 45.0 | 40.9 | 83.1 | 1.4 | 6.8 | 8.1 |
| Miller | 32 | 70 | 2100 | 47.6 | 41.1 | 82.4 | 3.4 | 9.0 | 12.5 |
| % Difference | 17% | -5% | 0% | 1% | -60% | -25% | -35% | ||
| AST/48 | PTS/48 | Win Score | PAWSmin | ||||||
| Bargnani | 1.8 | 23.5 | 400.5 | -0.062 | |||||
| Miller | 5.3 | 19.0 | 571.5 | 0.047 | |||||
| % Difference | -66% | 24% | -30% |
What is clear is Andrea’s rebounding and passing deficiencies. Certainly after the Jermaine O’Neal trade, Andrea’s rebounding numbers increased. However, I believe we still need to see his total rebounds number above 10 over 48 minutes. With that change and another assist per game, Andrea would be above the 5 “wins produced” metric. Even if you may not buy into Berri’s work, the comparison alone should highlight where Bargnani needs to improve – which should translate into additional wins.
3) Matchups (coaching strategies). Jay Triano is lacking solid defenders. But he does have a few. Bosh, Nesterovic, Evans, Johnson and Wright are all reasonable. Triano also has many opportunities for mismatches – big lineups that can handle the ball (i.e. the proposed started lineup) or tougher lineups (with Jack, Evans, Johnson). Plenty of great shooters as well. On defence, having our (slower) perimeter defenders force the action towards the corners/baseline will allow proper help from our bigs, with less easy dishes for easy scores.
Thus, I submit that 45 wins will be anything but a “layup”. I think our expectations are best set at a 500-ish team (i.e. ~ 41-41). Several of the top teams have had serious injuries to some of their top players (Garnett, Brand, Arenas, O’Neal etc), many of whom are predicted by “experts” to bounce back to normal form. As we learned from our own O’Neal example, this is often difficult on old legs (Arenas may be the exception given his age). Thus, we may see a few more wins as our younger team hopefully will hold up better than some of the ageing key players on teams above us. However, we obviously cannot depend upon it.
As always, I welcome your thoughts. And I’ll leave you with this:
Q: How do you tell the introverted statistician from an extroverted statistician?
A: The extroverted statistician is the one staring at the other person’s shoes.
117 Raps
umm can you explain the joke in the end?
The joke is that, rather than starring at his own shoes, like the introvert, the extrovert stares at someones else’s.
(Poking fun of the fact that introversion is very pervasive amongst statisticians, making looking down at another’s shoes a significant achievement in social dynamics)
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great post. i have much more confidence in our defense and creating mismatches than i do with bargnani having a brad miller-esque year. i still am not convinced that this guy can play a full season consistently. if he does – and i hope he proves me wrong – then we should be able to get 45-47 wins this year.
Good post, but it doesn’t take into account coaching. I know there’s a lot of talk about how coaching has minimal effect, but if that’s the case, why bother paying millions of dollars for a coach? Just let Colangelo’s wife coach the team. The key this year is Triano.
The third key starts to address coaching, but I kept it short. But you’re correct – its critical. One example: Triano can possibly use Bargs/Johnson effectively to create a scoring punch when needed (Bargs) but then defensive/rebounding presence (Johnson) when the situation calls for it. E.g. you play Bargs for 36 and Johnson for 12 and you may get “perfect” production – ~22 pts, ~2 blocks, ~11 boards from “Andir Bargson” over 48 mins. But it would be critical then to have both Turk and Bosh on the floor (most often) with Johnson to keep some scoring balance out there. Triano has some decent pieces and needs to put them together properly as the game advances.
How effective we are on defense will come down to defensive schemes Triano instills. We have the players now to atleast stop us from getting lit up.
And with Bargnani now being 3rd scoring option behind Bosh and Hedo, I think will suit him very well. He won’t need to force his game, which is were he tends to make mistakes. He’ll hopefully just be able to feed off Bosh and Hedo and be a more effective scorer by getting better looks.
All I’m asking for is a playoff birth and not being matched up against Bos, Orl, or Clev in the 1st round.
Which is your source to the fact that Hedo will be the second offensive option on the Raps team? I wouldn’t be so sure about that strategy at all…
Well Bosh is obviously #1, and the 2nd best and experienced scorer on the Raps is Hedo. Jose is a pass first guy who runs the offense, and Demar is a rookie. That is where I figure Bargnani is the 3rd option.
What were you thinking thecaustic?
I thought that you might have found the news in some interview or article…I really don’t know the answer, of course, but if I were Jay I’d definitely try to get the most plus-value from the duo of Chris and Bargs (reasons: mismatches, offensive skills, improvement of Andrea last year, etc.) and set up specific plays for them, and give Hedo a more all-around role, emphasizing his passing skills as a glue to foster wing action and enhance ignition of the two bigs. In any case, Hedo would probably take care of many clutch plays, and would be a great offensive terminal when needed and on specific nights. I see his contribution more as a mix of passing, scoring and leadership in crucial moments than as the second offensive option, if that means specific plays to have him score.
Anyway, we’ll find out very soon.
There is no and never will be a winning synergy between Bosh and Bargs on the floor at the same time … because they cancel out each other on offense and are too slow on defense.
The second an opposing coach sees these two on the floor at the same time, he will go small and fast .. particularly if Hedo is on too. Three 6-10+ players together … go small … and double team on defense …. let them shoot 3’s …!!!!
Eventually, Bosh will be gone and hopefully replaced by a couple of fast and athletic players. Bargs stays because he can’t fetch much in a trade.
If you think about it, Bosh, Bargs and Hedo have a lot in common in how they play … all 3 – 4’s ….!!!!
I’m not saying Bosh and Bargs are or aren’t good on the floor together, but if you go small and fast against them you’re just taking way their dribble penetration. At which point both our formidable shooters that can just shoot over those small defenders you sent against them.
AB cannot fetch much in a trade … ???
Are you thinking of the Andrea of two seasons ago or the one that was scoring 20 points per game , best blocker on the team and beginning to improve his rebounding stats the second half of last year .
You must be Khandor brother-in-law.
I’m with Antoine on this to a certain extent. I think that there are some smaller, faster guys who could potentially negate some of the dribble penetration and take some space away from bargs and bosh when they shoot from long range. But I don’t think there are that many tweeners that Bargnani can’t back down. Go small at 3, 4 and 5 against Bosh and Bargs and Hedo and suddenly that group could even become a decent rebounding unit.
3-4 tweeners, that is.
thecaustic: That makes a lot of sense as well I think and would really take advantage of Hedo’s skill set. My only issue with this is that Bargs in my opinion is still too inconsistent and running a lot of plays for him could potentially back fire. But who knows, maybe he builds off what he did the 2nd half of last season and is a consistent threat. I hope this happens :)
Yep, I share the same doubts about Bargs with you, but as I said this summer, after the Demar pick and the Hedo signing, Bargs’ performance during the incoming season is the variable and the unknown quantity that will make the difference between a great post-season run and an average or below average NBA championship. It is a big gamble for sure, but we all know that Brian strongly believes in Andrea, and the second half of last season went in the good direction. If Andrea starts building from that base, the Raps might have the fuel to enter unknown playoffs territories. If he retreats to previous seasons level, I strongly believe all our depth and additions won’t be enough to lift us over 1st round.
Of course there are a lot of other variables in the mix, but to me this one stands out as a major one. This season is going to be crucial for the Raps, but even more critical (no-return) for our starting center.
I’ve got Hedo at #4 (and possibly #5 if DeRozen steps up big time)
I think it is very possible that Bosh, Bargs and Jose could average more PPG than Hedo.
Possible, and desirable.
I think the problem will in fact be Triano’s defensive schemes. Triano and Iavorroni seem to be instilling K.O.’s defensive philosophies this year (at least according to the interviews). The problem is those philosophies are outdated – Joe Dumars blew up his team because they were out dated. You can no longer play that style of defense and not end up having the opposing team playing in the bonus for the last 4 minutes of every quarter. That may be different with the new refs we’ll be getting, but I’m willing to bet it’ll stay similar.
Your argument went out the window when you brought up Joe Dumars, who has done an awful job this past year in Detroit.
I would rather have kept my out-dated style of defense and Billups than end up with a soft team (Gordon, Charlie V., etc.).
My intent was not to laud Joe Dumars for his GM abilities. The acquisitions of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva make absolutely no sense to me either.
Nonetheless, he is a GM in the league who has recognized that the defensive style the Pistons employed during their championship stint was no longer as effective as it used to be. And that’s easy to recognize seeing as how the Pistons could not repeat that performance despite having Chauncy Billups.
The defensive style no longer working as well could also be a function of the core players aging and being less able to make it work instead of it no longer being effective.
Your also assuming that Jay is mindlessly putting into place KO’s system exactly as it was. I’m going to give him and Iavaroni credit and assume that they have evolved that system a bit to fit their own beliefs.
Clearly, the defensive style worked for the Celtics when they won the championship, and the Magic when they went to the finals.
D is not dead in the NBA, it just got old.
I think Dumars blew up the Pistons because he thought they were getting old. Maybe he could have squeezed another year or two out of that lineup but maybe not. I’m definitely not sold on his moves to rebuild his team though.
I think you may be on to something here, Joe may be just stacking up on guys that can produce and who are young so that he can make a move down the road. The player selection does seem odd for a Detroit franchise, but at the same time I can see both players producing for that organization.
Granted Charlie Villanueva is no Andrea, he does not command 12 million in 2014/15, his contract ends sooner and maxes out at 8.5 million, he is young too and can still grow as a player. Very gifted offensively when focused, almost unguardable.
Is Ben Gordon worth Jose Calderon money? He may be, he has played at a very high level before.
I don’t think the moves are as bad as some make them out.
I think its hard to tell who the difference is at this point.
The players have not come together yet and put in an effort against an elite opponent. Not even a preseason game. When that happens, we will see the identity of this team. It’s just too early to speculate about this rosters defensive propensity right now.
Triano can certainly prepare a strategy that he feels has the best chance with this unit, however, even he does not have a crystal ball and can’t know the challenges that lie ahead.
That said, Triano is not the only one that needs to adjust, our veteran three (Bosh, Jose and Andrea) need to be just as focused and ready to compliment their skills to their new teammates. There is pleanty of work for everyone, not just Triano.
Amir Johnson could have a signficant impact on the Raptors defense if he can earn minutes 15+ a game. I am not saying that he will but if he does the Raptors defense should be amazingly better at least while he is on the court.
Last year for example Pistons opponents shot 45% from the field but only 41% when he was on the court.
Also last season the Pistons defense gave up 109 points per 100 possessions but when he was on the court they only allowed 101 points per 100 possessions.
Whether he can earn the minutes I don’t have a clue. We will just have to wait and see how it plays out.
I agree. Everyone is counting on Bellinelli to surprise, but Amir Johnson has just as much potential to put it all together. I just hope by the all-star break we aren’t talking about Good Amir and Bad Amir. If for some reason he steps up as a consistent defensive force we’re going to have a very deep rotation at the bigs come playoff time. Lots of fouls and a strong front line to protect the rim.
The .500 mark is the safe, I don’t want to be disappointed level of achievement for the Raps.
Bargs does have to step it up – and isn’t that what a 4th year center supposed to do, keep getting better?
Defense has to improve – well sure. They’ll have to score 105 points per game if they play like last year and they might – but better defense is far more likely to produce wins.
And Calderon, whose numbers were good last year, needs to perform at the level he did 2 seasons ago – since he’s not hurt, why not? All-star (or close) PG performances win games!
It’d be real nice if Bosh could avoid tweaking his knee this season – he loses his lift and lateral mobility and can’t defend anyone.
As usual, the NBA’s crsytal ball is cracked and we won’t know how they’re going to do until they do it!
What’s wrong with hoping for more than a .500 club?
Nothing! I certainly am. I like to set expectations there, but if the team gels, addresses some of these issues well and/or other teams have critical injuries (JO, Brand, maybe Arenas, etc) then we could certainly do MUCH better.
brothersteve … Bosh, (Bargs), Jose, Hedo, these are all ’starter’ quality NBA players, DeDe is a draft pick rookie … and the rest of the team are ‘retreads’ of unknown quality. Okay, Rasho is a ‘veteran’, but the rest are retreads … agree??!!!
Do you truly believe that this group of disparate players can pull off a 0.500 W-L record this season … when you know a functional ‘team’ has not yet been created by the coaching staff???
I think the point is that he will be the second facilitator not that he will take the second most shots. Calderon and bosj pick and roll will still be the staple.
Or Turkoglu and Bosh with Calderon off in the car corner ready to launch the 3 ball, Andrea at the top ready to do the same. I think we’re going to see A LOT of pick and roll this year!
Triano’s defensive scheme is going to funnel guys into the middle, not to the baseline. That was Sam’s old scheme that is not the more popular theory around the league. Triano has said many times that they are going to change that in training camp and force the ball into the paint where the bigs (or the off guard on the weak side) can slide in and help.
No, you’ve got it backwards.
Sam was funneling to the middle, and Triano switched to a funnel-baseline tactic after Sam was fired.
I saw more of the opposite late last year – but perhaps the strategic will change with the new assistants. We’ll see.
Brad Miller is one of the best passers among NBA big men as well as a very smart and aware player. He has to be considering his longevity despite his lack of athleticism. If Bargnani came anywhere near Miller on the mental side of the game the Raptors problems at centre would be over.
I can’t stand Dave Berri and ‘Wins Produced’, but I agree with all the conclusions you’ve come to anyway.
The team has to get better, defensively and offensively. It would seem they’ve got the personnel to improve on the offensive end. The other end, not so much. We’re going to need to see great improvement from Bargs, as you’ve said. Lots of pressure in Triano in this department too, as you’ve said…
45 wins is quite an optimist prediction, but it could happen.
I hear you re: Berri’s stats. Hence why I was rounding a fair bit. I do like Oliver/Berri/etc’s contributions about having us think about being effecient with possessions. And regardless of the data, I think Bargs needs to look a bit more like a Brad Miller type – and it would go long way to securing an interesting playoff spot.
Gah, typo, in the last sentence that’s meant to say “optimistic”.
Good read and I can’t disagree with much of it, although if Bargs is a 3rd option, can we expect him to score 20 pt/gm?
But what about Bosh? I think he (and Calderon) have to expand their defensive games to the same extent Bargnani does in order for this team to be a genuine threat come playoff time.
I’m not worried about Bargs scoring 20+ a game. I think the key is to be efficient – maybe that means he passes a bit more and we get nice production from a Belinelli or Turkoglu perhaps due to a more fluid offense and more open looks. I believe the scoring will come and it will often be different guys on different nights. I would like to see Bargs improve on two things that are more “controllable” – rebounding and D. As Arsenalist said, D is likely 80% effort – probably not far off for rebounding as well.
Bargs and Bosh too are poor vertical jumpers … and horizontal defence is dependent on bball IQ and good decision-making under stress. Big men tend to be slow thinkers without the ball in their hands … they don’t anticipate well on defense all because they tire easily when playing all out defense.
Arsenalist’s comment is superficial … because D is a combination of IQ and effort.
Solid article, I would maybe argue that Bargnani needs to rebound 9+ rebounds per 36min. Either way, it may be a tall order for vl.
You shouldn’t be calling him VL anymore…
I agree, it’s childish.
‘VL’ cannot die on it’s own…bargs must kill it.
“We were twenty-first in field goal percentage allowed last year, and that’s why we weren’t in the Playoffs.”
LOL. That was ONE of the many reaons why the Raps didn’t make the playoffs. I am going to assume that rebounding and offense aren’t important aspects of the game in Jay’s mind? Somebody needs to put Jay through basketball school.
Sorry, but I agree with Triano. If we were 10th in the league in field goal percentage allowed last year (tied with atlanta/charlotte), opponents would have been held to 45.4% shooting. Liston’s data up there shows the Raptors won 71% of their games when opponents were held to less than 45.5% shooting.
I’m not saying the Raptors would have gone 58-24 last season, but had we improved our defense to that point then yes, we certainly could have been in the playoffs. Especially since we were a better offensive team than the Brandless 76ers, Miami Heat, and Detroit Pistons.
Umm, that’s the whole point of this article. The author indicates that there is a strong correlation between field goal % against and the number of wins you achieve. In fact, the argument is that there it is a stronger correlation than rebounds or rebound differential. Jay’s note that the Raptors were 21st in field goal % against indicates that he believes in this correlation too.
So how do you achieve improvement? It comes down to improved defense, which in turn leads to improved rebounding, which in turn leads to improved offense via transition buckets.
Though they will look at offense, I don’t think that the team’s offense will affect how the season goes nearly as much as its defense, so that’s where the emphasis should be. I also don’t think you can work on improving the rebounding of the team without looking at the entire context of the team. Yes, individuals can improve their own skills in this area but the real opportunity for improvement lies with the team playing within their defensive schemes. The rebounding will be a factor of that.
I think you should go and read the Chisholm interview with Jay. You wouldn’t then make idiotic comments about Jay needing to go to basketball school.
I agree that every player , but mostly the starters , need to show improvement on defence but what if we have a repetition of Jose to Chris type of offence and not enough ball movement and the other team zero in on Bosh like in previous years . I mean that we may improve slightly the defence but have the same old problems in offence which will contribute only a small improvement and the team may only barely make the playoffs.
We had no facilitators last season, outside of a gimpy Calderon, and only Bosh could consistently create his own high percentage shot (or foul shot).
Now we have three or four facilitators (Jose, Jack, Bellinelli, Hedo) and several guys who can create space…I really don’t see the offense being stagnant this year, however defining roles and finding enough shots to keep everyone happy and productive might be tough. How will Jose handle a reduced roll as facilitator? How will Bosh handle the possibility of fewer minutes and less shots (does he finish games stronger and dominate at the end of games like most superstars)? Will Bargs assume more or less offensive responsibility?
At the very least we will see an entertaining chemistry experiment that I think has a higher probability of success than failure (based on the talent mix, bball IQ and understanding of roles of the incoming players). How quickly this team meshes and how quickly Jay develops the personality of the team will define this season…I’m hoping for early success but I expect several bumps along the way. Can wait for the season to start!
Before we can speculate about the number of wins, we must first see if this disparate group of bball players can be forged into a team … offensively and defensively … a holistic, organic whole.
First step is Triano and staff must determine what kind of offensive and defensive team play strategy will optimize this group of players. Then to motivate the players to execute at both ends.
Secondly Triano must determine who is worthy and capable of starting so that the Raps don’t get buried in the first quarter and then excavating themselves out of their hole for the rest of the game.
Testing and refining the coaching concepts will begin in training camp, pre-season games and even extend into the first 2 months of the regular season. There will be ’surprises’ … good and ugly … as usual.
Attempting to create a ‘team’ out of past statistics and then speculating what will/must happen is just that … speculating.
“Before we can speculate about the number of wins, we must first see if this disparate group of bball players can be forged into a team … offensively and defensively … a holistic, organic whole.”
Although I agree that this needs to happen, you are completely wrong about the speculating bit.
If we wait to see how things go, WE AREN”T SPECULATING. We are observing. Speculation, by definition, requires uncertainty and unknowns, such as how a team will gel.
I have grave doubts that this group of disparate players can function as an effective team .. too many slow tall players.
If I were an opposing coach, I would go small and fast against a Raptor lineup of Jose, whoever, Hedo, Bosh, Bargs or Rasho .. and run them off the court either by outscoring them or forcing them to foul out. The remainder of the Raptors are retreads with no NBA-proven playing ability.
Don’t you see that too ….????!!!!!!!
You have grave doubts? That’s a speculation.
You would do a certain thing in a certain situation? That’s speculation.
You are speculating FAQ. Just like the tribal honkers. Tut tut.
It’s the off-season. Speculation is the ONLY OPTION. When the season starts, we’ll all be able to see what is there. Until then, no one can. We can only speculate.
You only speculate .. I strategize … that’s the difference between me and you tribal honkers who push numbers and play make-believe bball on this fine forum. You can always spot the nerds …
Dude, turn off your feeeeeeeeelings
FAQ becomes incoherent when he loses an argument.
Indeed, there’s a difference. Unfortunately, using ’strategize’ in the way that you have makes no sense.
To ’speculate’ is practically synonymous with ‘plan’. And that would insinuate making a difference with it, or at least having said plan shot down. Sadly, I don’t think that the Raptros coaching staff will be straining itself to pick your basketball mind for ’strategies’. That’s not to say that you don’t know what you’re talking about, but let’s face it – Jay Triano probably isn’t going to knock on your door asking for help. So, you can’t really say that you’re ’strategizing’.
Thus, ’speculation’.
(Oh, and I realize that this post just screams ‘nerd!’. Go ahead, call me one – I’d appreciate the acknowledgement of intelligence. Or, you know, don’t.)
Alt Raps … Before you throw around all yer stats and speculate on wins, shouldn’t you puzzle out a Raptor team first? So easy to hide behind last year’s stats …..
The Raps depth chart is still a thin puzzle with many missing pieces. A good team should be two players deep at every position. Let’s look at what we realistically have now:
PG: Jose & Jack
SG: ???? & ????
SF: Hedo & ????
PF: Bosh & Bargs
C : Rasho & ????
You can’t be surprised at the big hole at SG, and no depth at SG, SF and C. Perhaps your surprised I stack Bosh and Bargs at PF, because that’s what they are .. PFs and not C’s … and I have grave doubts about their synergy if on the floor together.
I will be surprised if Triano puts both Bosh and Bargs on the floor together with Hedo … all 6-10 slow players as starters. Even Hedo, Bosh and Rasho is a molasses front line.
The Raps are handicapped with tall players, and somebody has to go and be replaced with a couple of fast athletes or else this edition of the Raptors may well sink into the NBA swamp as the opposition exploits their glaring deficiencies and weaknesses.
Pretty easy to see this article isn’t written by me. Not being able to see that kind of hurts your other observations.
Tom Liston is the guest author. I’m sure he’ll respond to your comment in time.
Well, I don’t think there’s an issue with having tall players. It’s tall players who don’t *play* tall that’s the problem we have. If that makes any sense…
Really? You’ll honestly be surprised if Triano puts our all-star, top pick, and big free agent acquisition on the floor together? Really???
Because I’m pretty sure Colangelo would have a conniption.
Good teams are two deep at each position? Lakers last season:
PG: Fisher & ???
SG Kobe & ???
SF: Ariza & ???
PF: Gasol & Odom
C: Bynum & ???
And Fisher is barely “good” anymore. I count 4 ???, which is the same number that you say the Raptors have. Good teams do not need to be 2-deep at each position. It certainly helps, but it’s not a prerequisite.
Also, calling Bosh “slow” is ludicrous. He’s very agile for a power forward.
Bosh is the quickest PF in the league, bar none.
Let’s not get out of hand here: Amarè Stoudamire is the quickest PF in the league. And yes, he plays center sometimes, but he is without a doubt a natural PF.
hmmm.. I dunno. It’s definitely close, but I still think Bosh has a quicker first step. Amare, on the other hand, is a stronger finisher.
for as ‘weak’ a defender as many here claim bosh is, he’s light-years ahead of amare in that regard. offensively, amare is significantly more powerful, has a quicker first step & far better finishing ability around the rim.
Hi FAQ – I wrote the article and any criticisms should be directed at me, not Altraps.
That was the whole point – I did put the “puzzle” together and yes it’s speculation – how could it NOT be?! I tried to create interesting talking points based on “reasonable” assumptions.
Bargs and Hedo are reasonably unique ‘bigs’ – they do not fit neatly into the traditional SF or PF (or C!) roles. Thus, Jay’s job is an important one as you point out. I do like having either Amir or Reggie on the floor with Bargs and Turk – this would create balance.
I don’t see issues with Bargs (or Turk) on the floor with Bosh. In fact, having Bargs on the floor will often not allow an opposing big to easily provide help defense for his teammates that’s guarding Bosh – doing so means an open 3 for Andrea. Not doing so allows Bosh to beat his man 1on1 for (most often) a score or foul.
It’s not speculation if *he* does it; I think that’s the point he’s trying to make. Your opinions are speculation at best, but his are… strategery.
PG: Jose & Jack
SG: DD, Belinelli (although I expect Jack to get a good amount of time here)
SF: Hedo & Wright
PF: Bosh & Evans/Johnson
C : Bargs & Rasho
And this list really doesn’t include those players who can play multiple positions like Jack.
Other than the SF position, this roster seems to have decent depth to me. Like most NBA teams, if a couple of starters go down for a long period of time, the Raptors will struggle but I think they’ve done a decent job of building in redundancy.
All teams have some ‘holes’ in their rosters, some weakness, even the best teams have them, I don’t think that is the issue…
I expect a 42-43 W season, preety good with that roster. I share some of the doubts of FAQ about that roster, but I’m not so pessimistic ;)
“all 6-10 slow players as starters.”
If you’re planning to play Turkoglu, Bosh and Bargnani all at the 3 position, sure. But you must talk more than you watch if you think Bosh is slow for a PF, and Bargnani may not be swift at the 5, but he’s fine.
Actually, I think Bargs has a great deal of quickness for a C.
I agree with Dan, Bargnani is a pretty quick C, with an excellent first step, its how he gets both his game off on drives, and blocks on 1 on 1 defense.
The bottom line is that if we want to win games, we MUST play good defense. We may not be the best defensive team in the league, but if Jay has a defensive mind-set next season,then we should be good.
I dunno if I’ll recognize the raps if they became a barely at least defensive team, it will be a good surprise!!! :D
FAQ, you obviuosly should go do some research before you come and wirte all this BS.
RapsAllDayErrDay says: at 6:26 pm
“FAQ, you obviuosly[sic] should go do some research before you come and wirte[sic] all this BS.”
You are obviuosly[sic] too ….LOL
Well we are all dumping on FAQ.
Over-all talent and depth make it totlly different from last year.
Fact is nobody knows what this team can do. This group has got the talent to compete with any team this season. If all the “potential” goes good, Bargs having a good year, DeRozan in ROY discussions, Amir finds his place, Hedo steady across the board, Bosh hungry, Calderon healthy with Triano putting it all together, we will compete.
And I will win the lotto. Not sure what will make me happier.
Seems like everyone has forgotten the 06-07 team which won a franchise record 47 games with a defence that was no better than last year’s and a bench with such notable “all stars” such as Luke Jackson, Uros Slokar, Pape Sow, PJ Tucker, Juan Dixon, Darrick Martin, Chris Humphries, etc
This year’s team is light years better and deeper than the 06-07 team which gives me cause for optimism – despite the fact that the Celtics, Cavaliers and Magic also have teams that are light years better than their 06-07 teams.
The number of wins I’m expecting from the Raps this year is hard to call. I think they could at least be .500 and win up to 45-47, but with all the new guys it’s hard to tell how they’ll mesh as a team. I’m just hoping that they’ll make the postseason this year. If they can somehow find a way to win a first round series that’d be beyond what I expect from this years team. Though it’d obviously be great if the Raps could finally get to the second round, as a fan I’d love to see it. Can’t wait for the season to start!
Hey there hasn’t been any updates on here for the past 2 days, everyone on vacation or what?!
This article was published yesterday, cut us some slack!!! Slow time of year man…
I think he’s referring to the news feeds; they haven’t been any updates for a couple of days…we’re spoiled.
I’m sure the guys will pick up the slack. Morning Coffee, etc, is still being done, just elsewhere.
what do you mean morning coffee is being done elsewhere?! I got spoiled by this website because I don’t have to search for Raptors update content elsewhere on the web. I need my morning coffee updates back I am addicted to it!
Follow the link in my name above and you’ll see freshly brewed coffee every morning.
Why the change?
From hoopshype rumours:
J.E. Skeets: Chris Bosh put on 15 pounds of muscle over the summer at the urging of the coaching staff. Twitter.com
If this is true, Bosh will be a real animal this season … and the only way to put on 15 pounds of muscle in such a short time is …. roids …??!!!
Doesn’t the NBA have a roid policy ..???
I doesn’t…I’m not sure, but I heard that USA NT don’t make the same drug controls than other NT’s…is a USA NT requirement for international competitions…:/
The maximum amount of muscle you can gain per week is about 1 pound. I believe it’s been longer than 15 weeks since the season ended, so it is quite possible. With a proper work out program and plenty of protein, 15 pounds in an off season is attainable. Maybe Bosh has been working out with Ian King? He’s one of the gurus of muscle building.
eric smith jack armstrong interviewed triano today. he says bosh has been watching a lot of film and that he thought he looked skinny winning his gold medal. so traino told him well that is cause you are. everyone who would know seems to say bosh is bigger now.
1 lb per week is not realistic and can only be attained with roids or HGH .. and both are dangerous to health .. physical and mental. The most that can be expected is 1/2 lb per week with a rigorous workout regimen, and optimal diet … working 8 hours per day .. with the appropriate rest recuperation period.
If Bosh’s acne is worse, we will know he’s spiked himself.
1lb per week is generally regarded as the plausible ceiling for muscle gain, that is not unrealistic.
What’s tougher is maintaining that rate. 15lbs in a year is possible, 15lbs of muscle in one summer is definitely eye-brow raising. I’d think if protein and everything is involved, not all that weight is necessarily muscle though.
I’m not sure where FAQ got that 1lb per week requires roids. As Simon said, it’s attainable. And assuming Bosh had a “growth spurt” during the offseason because his body needed to adapt to all the lifting he was doing, the sustainability isn’t that far off either. If he continued working out past this offseason, I doubt he’d gain another pound of muscle per week – he’s likely hit his ceiling by now for a while.
With that being said, I’m not quite sure how they measured the “15 pounds of muscle”. Did Bosh gain 15 pounds while staying at the same body fat %? Doubtful. Usually to gain muscle mass you’ll also put on some body fat (thanks to the large calorie intake), and then burn it off in the final weeks of your training to get that “ripped physique” look.
My concern with Bosh is not his weight but his skills. I hope he spend as much time in the Gym working on his body as working on some of his weaknesses (KG has always been another version of skeletor but he owns Bosh on the court without adding any weight). Do we really want to see a bigger/heavier version of Bosh taking more jump shots?!
I think the reason Bosh looked to gain weight this offseason is to be able to bang in the post more often. If he gained most of the muscle in his core, that will give him a lot more body control when trying to get shots off in traffic. He already has the soft touch around the basket, the added muscle will just keep him from getting knocked around as hard.
I don’t see enough personnel improvements to convince me, or even create optimism, that a large defensive improvement is coming.
Amir Johnson is the one player with enough defensive ability to do so, but it’ll be impossible for him to have that type of impact if he isn’t playing at least 25-28 minutes a night. If he’s just a 10-14 minute guy, as expected, he’ll help but he won’t be making that large of a difference … he simply won’t have enough minutes.
I would be greatly surprised if DeRozan, Turkoglu, and/or Belinelli significantly outperformed Parker + Marion. I also don’t rate Jack or Wright as high defensively as others do. So I see little reason for optimism on the defensive front.
In terms of rebounding, losing Shawn Marion is a massive blow. Hedo Turkoglu can’t touch Marion’s board work. Belinelli is an even worse rebounder than Kapono, again not nice. There is some good rebounding in Evans + Amir, but Rasho’s rebounding took a dive last season and that’s worrisome, so minutes distribution between those three will be important. Then you have DeRozan who I think can be a good rebounder as a rookie … add that together and I think the team will be doing well just to offset the loss of Marion’s rebounding. If Rasho is not a rotation player then they could do better, but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t playing regular minutes.
So again … we come back to the one consistent X-factor for the Raptors = Andrea Bargnani
I think Bargnani is once again the central figure to any & all of the Raptors hopes to improving defensively + on the backboards next season. He has the biggest room for improvement and since he’ll be playing so many minutes, that improvement could make a large difference to the Raptors.
I think how well Bargnani does in these two areas will be the deciding factor on whether the Raptors are a .500 team or a 46-50+ win team.
If the Raptors reach 42 wins this season with this team filled with new players who have never played with each other and many of them are just retread role players … it will be a miracle.
BC blew up the Raptors and the only survivors were Bosh, Bargs, Jose, (forget Banks and PO’B). Assuming Hedo will flourish based on his past performance and stats is sheer fantacizing. Elevating DeDe to ROY is grasping at straws. Hoping that all Bellinelli needs is a chance to show what he’s got is just that … hope. As for Amir and Wright .. they are retreads, trade bait and BC bit.
It’s getting nauseous if not sickening to read about the great prospects for the Raptors with this crew of flawed veterans, castoffs, retreads and plain scrubs.
But hope springs eternal in the minds and farts of tribal honkers .. so obvious.
I’m still pissed at andrea’s 12Million max contract till 14/15.
I don’t understand why we could not just take our time? Why run this organization like a kris kringle and give a contract of that size a birthday gift to someone?
I always was of the opinion that it was good to motivate a player to dod something before you set him up for life.
Max contract? He has a contract significantly smaller than a max contract, for a player his age. His contract would have started closer to 12 million and gone up from there, not ended at that value, had it been a max contract.
As for motivation, how well did making Bargs earn his court time work with Mitchell? Seems to me it was only when JO went down and he was handed starter’s minutes that he performed well. So perhaps in Bargs’ case you have this backwards?
I meant his contract maxes out to 12 million, obviously he does not have a max contract.
12 million is a lot of money for a player that has not even shown that he can function in the play-offs, much less get his team there.
He has not shown any leadership on this team or the NT team, where the opposition is 2nd and 3rd tier. I don’t understand how Bryan can be so careless with the money. You can like your pick, but comon’n we can’t be playing favorites like that.
I think that one of the main guys who runs this site adopts new pseudonyms from time to time and then comes on the site to stir ***t up. Casa Nosta, FAQ, other guys… they all show a bit of BBall knowledge and a little bit of knowledge always turns out to be a bad thing. They come out with outlandish statements and personal attacks but they keep interest going because they’re good agitators. Do I really believe that the main guys impersonsate these agitators on their own site? No. That’s pretty farfetched. Who has the time? But then again, who has the time to post all this stuff without making a dime from it? I love the site but I will never understand you guys. Ever.
FAQ: There are no sure things. Beyond past performance and assumptions about how Hedo will fit with his new teammates, how can we predit how he’ll do? If one of Belinelli, Double De and Amir becomes an allstar then BC will have hit a home run. If two of them become good rotation players (including one an effective starter) then BC will have at least hit for extra bases. If one of them becomes a solid starter and the other two stink then the problem was Devean George, Delfino and Roko Leni in the first place. That’s hitting a single. Anything less and those moves will be considered an out, maybe a double play.
41 wins is reasonable and fairly likely. 35 or less would suck. 45 or more would be a pretty successful year for this team.
Honk honk (just saving you time, buddy… now you can get back to pursuing your unabomberish ways).
-BC
PS. Sorry for ranting. FAQ bugs me.
Dude, not every facet of ones life needs to be whored out to make a buck. We all have jobs that pays for our lives, and we do this for fun. Somewhere to ran about our team, and start some dialog.
As far as adopting a pseudonym to stir up some debate…lol, come on man! we may be idiots and do this for free, but we aren’t total losers.
If 42 wins is a miracle, then 39-41 wins would be pretty much a miracle?
I guess I should tell you to expect something like a miracle then.
So in other news I am really excited to see this team play together. Wouldn’t life be great if people that are so mad at the world cause they havnt gotten there johnson wet in 20 years didnt post on fan websites, where people are obviously gonna be bias towards the team the site is about since it is you know a FAN site.
Bosh >>>> Biedrens + Jackson …. ya heard it here first ….
Heard it here first huh?
The number 10000 >>>> the number 1. You heard it here first. Even though its obvious, common sense, and common knowledge.
hahah
The one thing that makes me quite nervous about the Raptors going .500 or slightly over is the number of other teams who have similar hopes.
There’s about five teams generally agreed upon as having a shot at the #7 and #8 seed — Phily, Miami, Toronto, Detroit, Charlotte — and even if you beyond that, to Indy, Milwaukee and NY, you have three teams that if they’re healthy (Dunleavy, Redd + Bogut, Gallinari) that are capable of winning 35+ games. That’s 14 teams …
There’s going to be no easy games in the East next year. There’s no terrible teams that everyone can just beat up on — like the Kings, Thunder, Wolves, Grizzlies, and Warriors in the Western Conference last year — it’s going to be a relatively even landscape in the middle of the Eastern Conference and teams are going to eat into each other’s win totals.
I think there’s a fair chance that the Raptors finish slightly below .500 (36-40 wins). The landscape is not favourable, not at all.
So the stats at Basketball Reference seem to like the Raptors. According to one analysis they’ll finish 4th based on last year’s stats. Some reason for optimism beyond fantazy (you spell it with an “s” FAQ)
Also, for those looking to waste time without getting into a cat fight with FAQ (or is that FAZ?), I highly recommend Queen City Hoops swap machine thingy. I’ve switched Andrea Bargnani with just about every big man I can think of. BC should trade him for Okafor by the looks of things. Surprisingly, trading him for Kaman comes out as a bad move.
In reality 15 punds of muscle sine the season ended for someone as skinny as bosh is entirely possible. When I was 18, I went from 170 pounds to 190 pounds with my body fat going up 1 percent in a 8 week period.I’ve never been able to put on muscle that rapidly sone but then I’ve never been 170 again.
In reality 15 pounds of muscle since the season ended for someone as skinny as bosh is entirely possible. When I was 18, I went from 170 pounds to 190 pounds with my body fat going up 1 percent in a 8 week period.I’ve never been able to put on muscle that rapidly sone but then I’ve never been 170 again.
The reason why Bargs got that contract is because if Bosh leaves, then he can be slid into the PF position, playing his natural position. If he could then be complimented with a Kendrick Perkins/Samual Dalmbert type center, then the raps could have a real chemistry with bigs.
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