20 Sep 2009

Morning Coffee Sept 20

FourPointPlay

I wonder how it feels to be the only Canadian team in the NBA, probably not as bad as it feels to play for the only Canadian team in the NBA.  While possessing a number of talented players, well mainly Chris Bosh, the Raptors have been stunningly mediocre for a number of years now, never doing particularly badly, never doing particularly well (they have only made it past the first round of the playoffs once in their franchise history).  With the addition of Hedo Turkoglu this season, hopefully Toronto can turn things around in 2009-10, but probably not.  

Raptors Locker

Not too many teams can line up three points guards of the quality of Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack and Marcus Banks.

RotoRob

I can see this club getting back to within shouting distance of .500, but will that be enough to make it back to the postseason? I’m expecting the usual logjam from about sixth place to 10th place in the East, and with Washington bouncing back and returning to the mix, it will be that much harder for the Raptors to hop over enough teams to make the playoffs. Another factor is that, with such dramatic roster turnover, there could easily be a feeling-out period for this club. I wouldn’t be shocked if they started slowly and then enjoyed a big second half once this new group gels.

Brothersteve’s Green & Red Raptors Blog

The most common knock on Turkoglu has been aimed at his defense and rebounding. Since Turkoglu is coming from a top 6 defensive club, this seems just a little overblown.  As a small forward, Turkoglu is often set against some of the better scoring players in the league. While he isn’t considered exceptionally quick or athletic, Hedo does have a high basketball IQ and is taller than many at his position.

Comparing Hedo to the other small forwards in the eastern conference, his combined (pts/rbs/ast) stat line is superior to veterans like Tayshaun Prince, Shawn Marion, and Luol Deng.  Even Rashard Lewis and Richard Jefferson’s totals were lower.

Fanhouse

I like what the Raptors have done. They might have overpaid a little for both Hedo Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani (whom they re-signed), but that doesn’t mean they weren’t solid basketball decisions.
Chris Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu make up a versatile front line, and they have one of the best decision-making point guards in the league, Jose Calderon, to put it all together.

15 Raps

  1. g says:

    Turkoglu is definitely way better on D than some of the idiots that try to cover the raps give him credit for .cough Scott Carefoot cough. Whoever wrote that Marcus Banks is a quality PG should be fired immediately. SERIOUSLY!

  2. Fon Riego says:

    “Not too many teams can line up three points guards of the quality of Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack and Marcus Banks.”

    This guy have never seen MB playing :D

    What is true is that Jose-Jarrett can be one ob he better PG couples in the league, I think…

  3. brothersteve says:

    I did some reading about Marcus Banks. The guy is best described as a turnover machine!

    And ESPN’s Hollinger sums up (Banks) best. “He’s a shoot-first guard who doesn’t see the floor and turns it over too much, so even when he’s shooting well he’s not that valuable.”

  4. brothersteve says:

    RotoRob,

    I take issue with the calling of Rasho a DUD.

    The only knock on Rasho with the Raps is it will take an injury to Bargs for him to get more than 12-16 minutes/game.

    Last season in Indiana, Nesterovic started 19 games. In those starts he averaged 9.6 points, 5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.8 blocks in 24.6 minutes. Taken as a whole, Rasho had better numbers in his starts last year than he has averaged for his career.

    And in 2 games against the LA Lakers, he averaged 12 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.5 steals in 24 minutes.

    Off the bench he scored 5.7 points, and collected 2.8 rebounds, 1 assist, 0.4 steals, and 0.4 blocks in only 14.6 minutes.

    You still sure that Rasho’s a DUD.

    • JYD18 says:

      He’s definately not a dud, just not flashy. That’s a common misconception. And for two million a year? That’s just icing on the cake.

    • RotoRob says:

      Brothersteve, I happen to be a serious Rasho fan, but bear in mind that I’m calling him a dud for Fantasy purposes. I just don’t seem him getting enough PT and doing enough to be Fantasy-worthy. He’s a FAR more valuable player in the real world and you definitely don’t need to convince me of his attributes. I think before the season is done he’ll be an important cog, but you won’t find him on my draft list. Just saying…

  5. FAQ says:

    Brothersteve’s blog on Hedo is entitled: Toronto Raptors: Hedo Turkoglu, Not Just a Turkish Screen and Roll King.

    The entire article is interesting because it attempts to equate Hedo’s Magic performance to the Raptors, but it ignore the fact that the rest of the Raptor team is only a shadow of the Magic.

    He is called a “point forward”, which I assume means he gets the ball at the top and works from there. What do the other players do besides watch?

    Hedo can create his own shot playing the point, but how do Jose and Jack fit into the offense, because neither of them are true SG’s. Jose can set up at the arc, but what can Jack do?

    When Hedo missed his shots with Orlando, he had decent rebounders, but with the Raptors he has crap. You know what this means!

    What aggravates me is everybody trying to plug all the players together based on their last season stats and then assume they can form a functional team. It’s using quantitative data and ignoring qualitative reality.

    There will be some difficulty for the coaching staff to meld all the new players together with the existing core of Bosh, Bargs and Jose. It’s going to be a ‘wait and see’ situation. The Raps will be carefully watched in the preseason to see what Triano is trying to create.

    • brothersteve says:

      Hi FAQ,

      Of course all one can do right now is plug in the new Raptors’ players using their last years stats and assume!

      They haven’t played a single game of any type yet.

      Everyone could just wait until we are about a month into the season before anybody writes anything about any team.

      But then, what we have have to do? Watch NFL until December and pretend nothings happened in the NBA until then?

      Join the fun! No one can be completely right or wrong now – but we can still enjoy reading and writing and discussing what’s going on in the NBA.

      Don’t take it to serious – Sports is Entertainment!

      • FAQ says:

        brothersteve says: “Don’t take it to serious – Sports is Entertainment!”

        I take reality seriously, and last years stats are not the coming season reality. Mixing old stats and then projecting into the future has some merit but it’s far from how a team operates in real life.

        In the Euro leagues, apparently the scoring is distributed and defence is important. There are few heroes for the masses and teamwork wins. If the Raptors are to rise to that level, Triano will have to mix and match deeper into the bench because giving any one player too many minutes will destroy teamwork .. players stay cold with too few minutes and guys start to stand around waiting for something to happen before they commit themselves.

        And yes, sports is entertainment, but not for true aficionados who have played the game … we are observers of both teams and have a deeper sense of the game than do the stat-spewing tribal honkers who adore their particular hero … like Bosh (I love him, he can’t leave…)!!!

    • LC009 says:

      I think that you are absolutely right, FAQ.

      However, you have to keep in mind that the change in roster can affect any given player both ways; there may be fewer quality rebounders on this team, but there are more and better playmakers with the Raptors than with the Magic (Jameer Nelson is a shoot-first PG). How can this latter face affect Hedo and other players?

      Also, there will be more ball movement here than in Orlando (partly because Howard is so dominant, it would be silly NOT to go through him as much as possible). That should more assists for anyone who gets quality minutes on this team.

      I expect Hedo’s PPG to go down, his RPG to go up slightly, and his APG to go up. I am expecting maybe 15 PPG / 5.5 RPG / 6 APG.

      As a side note, I think that with Marion gone and with Bargnani getting starter minutes for the full season, he should average about 7 rebounds per game. If he can do even better and grab 8 rebounds per game, I don’t see how he doesn’t get to the All-star game (behind Howard, of course).

      Think about it, he would likely be averaging 18 PPG / 8 RPG / 1.5 APG / 1.5 BPG.
      While there might be 4-6 Centers in the EAST that might grab more rebounds, I only expect one other center to have more than 12-14 PPG: Dwight Howard (who also plays nearly 40 MPG). If AB is grabbing 8 boards, I don’t see how he doesn’t get voted in as the backup C for the East.

      • FAQ says:

        I agree, LC009 but …. I take issue with the RPG stats of any player because many of the rebounds by say Bosh are off the defensive boards after the opposition has fled and its uncontested.

        Do you know of any rebounding stats that separate the contested from the uncontested rebounds? I suspect the coaching staff will have such numbers, but I don’t know if they are available on the ‘net … maybe I should ask khandor …..

    • Brain Colangelo says:

      Khandor has a good article on his site re. the likelihood of the Raps succeeding while running plays from the Magic playbook. The Rap players, esp. Calderon (but Bosh too) need to adjust their play to benefit from the presence of another skilled distributor.

      If the Raps best 5 players (ie. the close-out 5) become Bosh, Bargnani, Hedo, Jose and Jack then you have 3 guys who can handle the ball late in games. That will be tough for other teams to defend. Can those 5 guys defend anyone? A great deal will depend on (1) Jack & Jose being able to control the perimeter and (2) the continued development of Andrea Bargnani. If Bargnani can become even an average team defender at the C spot then the Raps ability to defend late in games will have improved significantly.

      It’s interesting that Bargnani has become a good individual defender at the C but a bad team defender. Isn’t that the opposite of the proto-Euro-type (ie. Rasho)?

      • LC009 says:

        I think that against some lineups, that will be our roster at the end of games. For instance, against Miami (D.Wade is only 6′4″) or against Washington if they are running Arenas at the 2 (which technically he is — Gilbert is also 6′4″).

        Against these quality guards who are only 0.5 to 1 inch taller than Jack, I can see us going with a Calderack / Jackeron lineup (I hate the way “CalderJack” sounds).

  6. Rapman89 says:

    the thing im hoping hedo will bring to the table in toronto is the ability to keep control and properly facilitate the offence in the fourth quarter. he may get less oppurtunities to do that considering we have a highly efficient play-making point guard already but he will get too late in the 4th. too many times we lost composure (not talking about our defence)late in games where the offence just fell apart due to players simply not thinking and falling apart as a team.

    if hedo can bring some stability and a sense of composure for us during those times then our win total should be way up from last year.

  7. duiduidui says:

    It’s not the defense I worry about with Hedo , it’s those bad shots he takes. He shot %39 last season. Hopefully with 2 mobile bigs with range in the starting lineup , he will get better looks.

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