38 days till the first pre-season game, 60 days till the season starts. When opening night does come, it’ll be 6 months and 13 days without Raptors basketball. Until then we must survive, we must help each other, support our brethren in this cause and get through each day by holding hands, singing chants, lighting bonfires and holding vigils. We must control the addiction by showing patience at work, by not pressing the buttons for all 40 floors in your elevator just because you thought it was ‘funny’, by suffering quietly through the baseball season, by not making fun of the WNBA no matter how hard it is to do so, and most of all, by being safe in the knowledge that as the weather cools and summer drifts away, we’re getting closer.
Bargnani elbow post-up. He doesn’t have the strength to back his man down Barkley-style but he can catch it near the elbow and shoot over most defenders. Since shooting is his forte, this is a great way to get him more ‘inside’ than the three-point line. Early last year he was posting his man up, turning and hitting that 15-foot face-up jumper – then it all went away. No pump-fakes, no fancy dribbles, no pull-backs, just a clear-out and then a shot, there’s not even a need to rise for it. More specifically, I’m referring to the 21-39 for .538 zone here.
Lob it in against the fronter. Our main advantage is size in the frontcourt – Turkoglu at 6′10″, Bargnani at 7′0″ and Bosh at 6′10″. Last year we didn’t see Bosh and Bargnani get any easy baskets underneath the rim and that needs to be fixed. Defenses are aware of the problems they might pose if they get deep position and they front them with success far too easily. We’ve had PGs deny Bosh and Bargnani the ball, the problem is two-folds, inability of the post player to put the mismatched man on his back and the inability of the guard to make that pass away from the defender and towards the basket. We got to work on our entry passes and fight harder to take advantage of mismatches when they do present themselves. Hopefully with a healthy Calderon and a veteran like Jack, we can finally figure out the angle on the post-pass.
DeRozan Iso. Not necessarily because I think he’s going to be great at it, but because it’s so important for a two-guard to create his own shot and the earlier he develops his one-on-one game, the better. I know it sounds ridiculous now but Morris Peterson actually had a one-on-one game coming out of Michigan State; it was stunted because we strictly asked him to be our off-the-ball guy and he bought into the role hook, line and sinker. From the USC and summer league games I’ve seen, DeRozan possesses two key mental attributes of any great one-on-one player: composure and recognition. He doesn’t panic when D’d up and he recognizes what the defense is giving him and goes about taking it. An unproven commodity in the NBA, it’s the coaching staff’s job to help him get there.
The Press. The athleticism of Jack, DeRozan and Wright combined with the size of Bosh and Bargnani should give us options when trying to increase the defensive pressure. Last year we didn’t use any sort of press because it asks of too much effort from the players and even more from the coaching staff. The C**tics deploy a press with Rondo/House pressuring the would-be ball-handler near the baseline, Garnett clogging the view of the out-of-bounds guy and one of the Allen’s troubling the release-guy. I’d like to see some of that here. We were 22nd in the league in forcing turnovers which means we rarely got easy baskets and didn’t make the offense sweat. It’s much harder to bring the ball up-court through passing than dribbling and the Raptors need to test the opponent’s ability to do that; you’ll be surprised how difficult it is for players to do the fundamental things – like breaking a press – in today’s game.
Roll, not pop. They don’t keep stats for this but I’ll bet we did 10 times as many PNPs than PNRs. Turkoglu’s used to the screener (Howard) rolling to the rim and attracting help, giving him the option of a high-pass to Howard for a finish or a pass back to the three-point line to make the helper pay. I strongly feel that the roll is more effective than the screener going back to the 15-foot area and waiting for a pass, that strategy often resulted in a reset for us than advantage gained. Honorable mention: the slip-screen, it’s a dying art.
Drive ‘n kick. Sounds almost too simple but its true. If we only produced half the dribble-penetration we gave up last year we would’ve had 7-10 more wins. I think Turkoglu can go a long ways in remedying this situation and in the process open up things for Belinelli, DeRozan and Calderon on the wing. Dribble penetration is a necessity for any offense to function in the fourth quarter and we have to do better than 18th in that department. It’s not just Turkoglu, Calderon and Jack have to find a way to get right in the heart of the paint and make plays. Very simple and not needing further comment.
Decide on defense. Figure out a strategy of how to handle an offensive player and stick to it. This speaks to the team’s preparation more than anything, for example, if we’re going to double a player, everyone should be on the same page about where it’s going to come from and what their rotation responsibilities are. If we’re forcing a guy to his left, let there be help ready to meet him. If we’ve decided to test out a guy’s jumper, let’s test it out and not play him tight one possession and give him space the next. The inconsistencies in our defense is what led to us having no defense. When you have a player like Jamario Moon who proudly confesses to not reading the scouting reports and gets away with it, you have a problem. Here’s to Triano preparing these guys for teams and matchups the right way, something that hasn’t happened since Butch Carter.
Thoughts?
59 Raps
From Triano’s interviews it seems certain that they’ll be “rolling, not popping” their way to the basket. He said he wants to use Bosh as Dwight, Jose as Jameer, and Bargs as Rashard while Hedo handles the ball. Aside from that, Triano said there will also be a lot of motion offense – no more stagnant plays! Yay!
One other ‘play’ I’d like to see are much more cuts to the basket. Setting a screen baseline and letting DeRozan cut in for the alley-oop jam just sounds tantalizing.
I love the first paragraph, it summarizes exactly how I feel today….
looking forward to the season
I hate the first paragraph. It just shows how long I have to wait until the season starts
Good column as always, but that first paragraph made me laugh out LOUD. (You just so get it … and say it clearly and in a way that makes me laugh. Yes, I’m an Arsenalist fan, to be sure.)
I’m watching for the column that you may write one day about how your thoughts on Jay Triano have evolved, or not. I know you weren’t blown away by him being signed and neither was I, but as the off-season has passed, I’ve accepted it, made peace with it and now, actually feel pretty good about it. So I wonder at times if you feel better about it than you once did, as well? I’ll watch for it, in case you do have something to say about Jay, one of these days. Cheers.
Right now he’s a 25-40 head coach and that’s how I see him. I understand his hiring, cheap, experienced with the organizations, respected by the players blah blah. He’s got a lot of pressure to produce because unlike last year, most observers feel that Colangelo’s got enough talent on this roster to make some noise. The things he said in the Chisholm interview felt right, but implementation is another matter. Judgment reserved.
I agree with everything you just mentioned, except the statement “Unlike last year, most observers feel that Colangelo’s got enough talent on this roster to make some noise.” Personally, I felt like we got better press going into last season than we did this year, in terms of Power Rankings from the major media outlets and what not. My point is that expectations seemed to be even higher going into last year, and when Smitch was fired with an 8-9 mark, my understanding was that we had to fire him early so that Triano could right the ship and get us into the playoffs. A lot of things happened after that, but one thing is certain – We did not get better under Triano…we got considerably worse.
It’s true what you say … but, the way I’ve been thinking about it, or maybe reconciling the whole thing is, after Sam got the axe the whole team had to have been a bit shaken … and there was probably always a sense of Jay being only ‘temporary’. I don’t know if their slightly better play towards the end was because of Jay’s coaching or just that they relaxed a bit more and just played, but … I have to be optimistic or I wouldn’t be looking forward to this year as much as I am. With Jay there from day one this year as the not-temporary head coach and with a mostly new team for him to work with, I’ll trust that Bryan was correct with the decision that he made. I don’t think Jay’s a doofus … and I’m quite certain that Bryan isn’t either, so … my fingers are crossed and I’m hoping that one day a few years from now, Jay Triano will be recognized as one of the good coaches in the NBA. Of course, time will definitely tell …
Could be. But I can think of plenty of examples, last years Blue Jays being the most recent one – where the team responded to the firing of the coach by actually raising their level of play over the remainder of the season. I think in professional sports, when the margin between winning and losing is so small, coaching has a significant impact – strategy-wise especially – on the ultimate outcome of the game. Hopefully Triano can prove that he’s much better at coaching when he’s had a team under his wing for a full season, because when he’s had them for half the year, the results haven’t been pretty.
Team records speak as much (I believe more) to talent (or lack thereof) than coaching. The measure of a coach should be what he does with (or without) equivalent talent. You were not going to coach that team – esp with a big shakeup half way through the year, to the playoffs, whether his name was Pat Riley or Jay Triano.
As I pointed out a week or two back – Pat Riley had a four year consecutive span of 0.305, 0.672, 0.537, 0.183 / was he a terrible coach, then one year later a Hall of Fame coach, then a year later an average coach and one year later the worst coach of all time? Of course not! Players/talent/injuries obviously matter much more – what else could explain those four consecutive seasons?
I coach should be judged on what he does relative to the talent pool he has – period.
Well said, and with a great example to validate your point. Coaching is important, but the talent and injuries are much bigger factors.
I agree with Tom L – coaches should be judged according to what they do with equivalent talent. Which is why I’m so surprised Triano was retained after posting a winning percentage so much lower than Sam Mitchell’s – even though he had exactly the same players. It would also be surprising to me if Triano does better with this new squad than Mitchell would have – considering their previous track record would suggest Mitchell can get significantly more out of an identical talent base.
They did not have exactly the same players. One starter and a reasonable starter/early sub were traded half way through.
Hmmm….you really think that the team was much worse off with Marion instead of J.O.? And when the players (All of them) were identical, were the Triano-Mitchell records comparable? I gotta say, I think the rosters were very close to identical pre-J.O. trade. I think Triano had a better roster to work with post-J.O. trade. And I think his winning percentage was worse than Sam’s in either case. Not to defend Sam or anything, but there’s a silver lining to going 25-40? C’mon now.
I hear you – I do believe there are other things to consider:
A) I believe you should consider the schedule
B) I believe all players were 100% healthy for the first 17 games
C) 17 games – small number – if ONE game went the other way and Sam would have had the same approx winning percentage
D) Moon, despite a number of haters, was a positive contribution in winning basketball games (see #14 http://www.wagesofwins.com/UnderPaid0809.html) – I’ll get flamed for this comment, but I’ll stand by it.
E) The Jermaine trade hung over the team earlier than the deadline (not a huge deal,but *may* have had a small impact) Jay suggested extra time and plays were made for JO in order to maximize his trade value – sacrificing the short term for the long term.
F) Imagine trying to change parts (some substantially) of your offensive and defensive schemes on the fly.
Jay Triano may prove that he is a below average coach. But to take much stock in last year’s record provides little evidence that he’s definitively a poor coach, in my opinion.
And I apologize if it seemed like I was presenting a “silver lining” – I simply do not think you can judge much either way – for example, I think the end of season winning streak is completely meaningless as well.
I think another important point here is that Smitch ran Bosh into the ground to get those wins. Overused him to the point of extremity, with many 40-44 minute games.
Also, one must keep in mind that Jay was with the organization for several years, and Sam had a system in place already (which the players had learned).
Since the change was mid-season, then Jay would not have been able to make major changes to the plays and the team’s playing style.
This means that he was trying to run Sam’s system, and from what I read, not playing to his preferred style at all (Jay seems much more pro-ball-movement than Sam).
To LC009 – If what you say is true, I wonder why the Raptors even changed coaches then. Why turn over the reins to a guy when the odds are so overwhelmingly stacked against him succeeding? Especially if he’s only going to run exactly the same things the old coach did. What would be the point in making a switch.
To Dan H – Bosh sure did log a lot of minutes in those 17 regular season games, true. But Jesus, if that’s all it takes to wear him down at the beginning of the year, I’d hate to see what happens to the guy if we ever made a deep run into the playoffs. I guess we can’t shorten the bench at all.
I have to hand it to you guys…you’re doing a heck of a job keeping us interested, entertained and intrigued at a time of year when we really have no reason to be.
Much appreciated.
Thanks for the kind words from everybody. We try.
until i found this website, my summer had no meaning. Thank you Raptors Republic. I get the feeling, reading your articles that you guys have a much better idea of how to coach than smitch ever did. Too bad BC doesnt read this…
maybe he does……….
Great Article, made my day already, its been a boring month but you guys somehow manage to make it seem like the raptors are playing in a week rather than 2 months, making us raps fans much more happy than having none of this.
I really like the “Pop, not roll” plan, Triano is doing that very same play, and is what really define the magic’s offence, and in a sense made Lewis, Nelson, and Howard even better at what they do, can it work he? absolutely it can, Bosh would be our Howard, and Barganni would be our Lewis.
I also really like the idea of having a “Derozan iso” play, this can really solidify Derozan talents but the only problem I have is his ball handling, other than that I think he’s more than capable.
You mean “Roll, not Pop” right?
I think we should have derozan on a back-side cut for an alley-oop once in a while just to keep the defense on its toes. If we have Howard on Bargnani or something is where I like Pick’n'Pop for the match ups. Only way Bargnani beats Howard is on the perimeter. Same goes with Bosh.
Bosh has the skill and quickness to school Dwight no matter where he is on the offensive end, inside or out.
On the Bargnani post-up: from your stats it looks like he shot 0.400 or better from outside the arc. That’s an average of 1.2 points per possession.
If he’s only taking a 2 point shot, he’d need to average 0.600 to equal his 3-point shooting. He’s under this.
Now, I know we need to factor in offensive rebounds and all the rest to see how many points we actually earn from a possession where Bargnani shoots from inside the arc … and it looks from the math like 3-pointers are a great strategy for him.
Yup, this is one of the reasons the Magic were good. Van Gundy wanted only dunks from Howard and three balls otherwise.
Some interesting ideas for the Raptor playbook. Should any of these be incorporated, I personally would miss the predictability of the old “system,” which included such favorites as the “Bosh Pick and Pop” the “Throw it into J.O. and get back on D” and the “Bosh Post, Pivot and Hold,” as well as CB4’s now classic master class on “Driving to get Fouled; Not to Score.”
Love the sarcasm but I hope I never ever ever see Bosh hold the ball again, or the drive to get fouled play with the arms high and no ball that Jose has also picked up well.
These are great articles. Another thing that might make these months go faster could be a match-up series.. sort of like a brief preview of upcoming games against the other teams in the league (compare players, records, history etc.)
Based on the past, these guys actually do a great deal of this in-season, on a game to game basis…
Which is awesome. But also makes your idea a little early.
I don’t think DeRozan is going to be able to be effective as an isolation player … at least as a rookie, not unless he’s gone through some summer transformation. In SL, it was like watching Peja Stojokovic try to create off the bounce.
I don’t see a press being good for this team defensively either. They don’t have a good enough point guard at it, there wings will barely be mediocre, and they’ll have very little help behind them.
Maybe some traps with a big man, when his man is inbounding the ball, particularly with Amir Johnson? Reggie Evans likes to do that type of thing to, but it’s more effort than effect. Similar to what KG does with the Celtics, just to slow down the ball and make the other team take more time to get into their offense.
The DeRozan Iso is an interesting scenario brought up.
On the one hand, DeRozan is still very much raw and while its clear he has the potential to eventually be a great 1-on-1 player, he is only a rookie with 1 year of college experience. He does need to improve his handles more in order to be efficient in that role.
On the other hand, with the line-up he’ll be playing with (assuming he’s starting) this may be the best scenario for him to develop some moves. Defenders would be less inclined to cheat off the other 4 guys who are legitimate in some way offensively. If the coaching staff works with him on this, it could actually work nicely.
As for the defensive press, I like the idea of random presses trying to catch the opposing team napping and keep them more tentative and on their toes. Our improved depth actually makes this a viable option because the starters can now use more energy while out on the floor with less regard of saving it to play for the whole game. I think the press would be optimal with a few second unit guys on the floor.
I really the article. I think one of the things calderon should be working on this offsesason is throwing alley oops because he’s absolutley terrible at it. It would fit into the quick ball movement offence Triano is looking for, plus with the additions of Amir, Derozan and Wright we can definately get alot of easy points that way. Not to mention, the confidence boost of doing them would energize them on defence
really like**
Arse … think of this for another insightful article: What if Bosh is injured for an extended period, what happens then? What if Bargs, Hedo or Jose are injured at one time or another, how does this affect the Raptors???
Analyzing the ‘worst-case scenario’ is what BC and Triano must do to ensure they have a marketable product on the floor. How about you …????!!!!!
Interesting. Because what? Cleveland would be fine without Lebron?! Lakers would win another chip with Kobe being injured?
I think it’s fair to say most teams would be severely impacted if their star was injured for an extended period. Why would the Raptors be any different?
Hey FAQ…you see those straws up there on the shelf? Can you reach and get those for me? Thanks.
Nicely done.
HOW ABOUT A FULL COURT GODDAMNED PRESS
NOBODY bothers. Why is that?
With minimal half assed pressure, teams barely make it over in 6 seconds.
2nd unit guys should full court press until they drop.
anyone who’s read gladwell’s piece on the full-court press understands the benefit of the press, especially for weak teams who are just as likely to lose (based simply on personnel) playing conventially (read: 2008/09 raptors). for weak teams, what’s there to lose? they’re probably going to lose anyway, and all the press truly requires is a PLAN & EFFORT. in a way, it doesn’t really require that the bench be overly skilled (in fact, it probably helps if it’s not), as long as the coach is willing & able to implement a plan & get his guys to buy into it.
personally, i love the press. think of it this way…what was your reaction when you saw the opposition manning-up jose or ukic or swill or AP full-court last year? it was probably ‘crap,’ because we all knew that we were short at quality depth at the point behind jose, and that that kind of D would tire him out quicker, or that ukic & swill sucked & would either turn it over, or take so long bringing it up the floor, there’d only be a few seconds left on the shot clock (the raptors’ version of the suns’ offense: ‘ONLY 7 SECONDS LEFT’) by the time the play was set up.
Seriously, how can anybody really say Triano did a good job last year? You could make the case that he did a bad job, but you can’t make the case that he did a good job. Not saying he did a 100% terrible job and shouldnt have been re-hired, but at least a case could be made.
Hey, where’s “horns-up” on this list of plays to run? “Horns up” never fails.
I was thinking more of Reggie Evans iso …
in re: to the .450 winning percentage… consider to bump to ~.450 it would have taken 5 more wins from the raps. Looking at the close games we lost, there were plenty of candidates to make up five w’s. What screwed us it not having a reliable outside/inside finisher along side bosh’s inside/outside. What also didn’t help is Triano had little experience with late 4th quarter game management, because he is inexperienced. i think this improved greatly in the last stretch of the season, which contributed to our streak. here’s hoping it continues to improve
Some good points, it is way to premature to write Jay off as a poor coach – I agree. What I am arguing is that it would be illogical to suggest that, based on the 65 game sample we actually do have, that he has demonstrated any evidence of being an even “average” NBA coach. All of the evidence is to the contrary – and maybe it is too small of a sample to speak definitively on. Maybe he was just the wrong guy for that team and this year’s more talented group will play to his strengths. But I think its preposterous to say that coaches can’t take over a team in mid-season, with a basically identical talent base, and turn the ship around….or even get it to hold steady. Tom L, what would it have taken for you to feel that last year was a failure for the man – all excuses aside? 0-65? For me to admit that I saw considerable potential in Triano, I would have needed to see a record approximating Mitchell’s – maybe a .450 winning percentage. Considerable potential might have been there, but in my view, we haven’t seen it yet.
I would leave to say that the lack of talent and an anemic bench was the largest driver of the team’s record. It’s my belief. I did have someone that knows the game email me privately – to say that they thought a different coach could have brought them to the playoffs – maybe they are right. I personally don’t see it given the personnel. I don’t see many coaches finding a way to win with talent like Solomon or Ukic playing 20+ min some nights post Caleron’s injury. Even heayweights like Jake Voskhuhl had to play a dozen minutes for 7 or so games for Triano due a combination of the trade and injuries. Maybe another coach could have gotten a lot more out of Solomon, Ukic, Voskuhl, etc such that they won a dozen more games, but I personally cannot see it.
Have you checked out Mike D’Antoni’s first year win-loss record? If not, it sounds like you should. It’s much worse than Triano’s record.
So…to your mind, nothing could have proved that Triano did a poor job? The situation was just too far out of hand?
In my mind, it was difficult to assess one way or another. I saw some better ball movement on offense as the year progressed, but frankly next to nothing in terms of improvement in defensive efficiency.
On a side note – in terms of “a winning percentage so much lower than Sam Mitchell’s – even though he had exactly the same players” – for now, let’s go with the assumptions that the O’Neal/Moon – Marion/Banks swap was even. If you consider that Sam lost 2 man games with Calderon sitting and Triano lost 17 full games with Calderon OR Bosh sitting (forget about another 14 games which O’Neal was in a suit under Triano) – the lineups were not that similar.
Here a different (but related question) – do you think Chuck Daly, Mike D’Antoni, Doc Rivers and/or Pat Riley are solid coaches?
If you said yes to any of them – review their records and assess if these records meant much. Chuck Daly was 0.281 his first year. Mike D’Antoni was 0.280 his first year. Bill Simmons (and many others) were passionate about firing Doc Rivers after a 0.293 season – and next season “he” lead them to a NBA championship. As noted above, Pat Riley posted a 0.305 the season right before posting a 0.672 record.
When the talent at their disposal improved significantly so did their records. All to say the first year (especially considering the factors mentioned above) has not necessarily been a great predictor of solid coaching. Talent however seems to have a reasonable correlation. Of course certain coaches “raise the game” of their players, but its difficult to leverage players like Will Solomon, Roko Ukic, Joey Graham, Jake Voskuhl into positive contributors on the floor.
So…anyone with a pulse off of the street (such as myself) could have coached the Raptors after Sam, and because of the injuries and the “even” trade of J.O./Moon for Marion – there is no way you could ever say there’s evidence of a poor coaching performance. We were that screwed already. It was predestined that whoever took over would do worse than Sam because of the radical changes in the lineup?
I’ll let go of the games Triano did have with the same roster. But you really need to tell me how Triano could have possibly done a poor job in your view – given that everything was the fault of circumstance.
Have a read of #18 above (Daly, D’Antoni, Rivers, Riley). I’ve stated my view and I’m cool with us not seeing this the same way. Cheers, Tom
Cheers.
Great point!
I’ll add an aside: At the beginning of last season, BC conned everyone by saying he had put together the best team he’d ever had (on paper).
In BC we Trust! lol!! ;P
(My point was directed to #19, Tom L)
:)
Oh, interesting. Have you checked out Kevin O’Neill’s first year win-loss record? Butch Carter’s? Darrell Walkers? Brendan Malone’s? Sam Mitchell’s? Lenny Wilkens’? If I have missed a Raptor coach, let me know.
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