From time to time, we will turn our writing desk over to our readers who in turn will provide us their insight and different spin on all things Raptors. In this edition:
Tom Liston
Tom is an Equity Research Analyst by day and a long-time Raptors supporter at night. He is a recent season ticketholder (i.e. sucker for punishment) and an excellent referee from 125 feet away. Liston despises “tanking”, thinks Calderon is underrated, is on a mission to end the booing of VC, and will miss “Hump’s Dad”. He’s from the hotbed of Canadian basketball (New Brunswick obviously) where he was a very undersized but effective rebounder – just don’t ask him to dribble through traffic. He believes taking a charge and bruising for an offensive board are the two best plays in the game and he thinks the Raptors TwitFam is the best in the NBA
Email: tomliston at hotmail.com <> twitter.com/Liston
I’ve recently read a number of articles and blog posts on the importance of rebounding (specifically rebounding differential – the difference between a team’s total rebounds vs. their opponent’s total) in determining the outcome of basketball games. Being an undersized and gritty rebounder in high school, I tended to agree. Recent blogs have debated how Raptors’ players like Andrea Bargnani and now Hedo Turkoglu have to “step it up” as they are underperforming in this category.
The vast majority of opinions have focused on an individual’s effort, size and positioning as the determining aspects of whether the player is an effective rebounder – outlining various stats on other centres (in Barg’s case) in the league, comparing players over 6’10”, etc to prove their point one way or another.
While I agree with many of these assessments, I was drawn to what I think is the larger problem – and likely one that has a much larger impact on the Raptors rebounding woes. So, I asked myself (in a non-schizo way) “what is the source of rebounds?” Brilliantly, after many sleepless nights, I came up with “missed shots”! And, for obvious reasons, missed shots on the defensive end are more likely to end up in the defensive teams hands (the NBA data suggests 73% of rebounds are on the defensive end).
Therefore, I concluded:
Rebounding is a function of an individual’s effort AND his team’s defensive FG%
So is this true? I used the data from the last two NBA seasons and found a “large negative correlation” of 55.8% between an opponent’s field goal percentage and defensive rebounds. In laymans terms, this suggests that a very important part of why teams get more defensive rebounds is its ability to hold their opponents to a low FG% – or to put it another way “force your opponents to take difficult shots and your team will likely get more defensive rebounds”. An important mantra in statistics is “correlation does not imply causation” – but I believe we will all agree that the logic here is sound as well.
Now then, what’s a more important factor in determining the outcome of games?
Several articles/blogs attribute rebound differential as a critical factor. However, here is a quick look at the data we compiled:
2008-09 Wins vs Opponent’s FG%
2008-09 Wins vs Total Rebounds
2008-09 Wins vs Rebound Differential
2007-08 Wins vs Opponent’s FG%
2007-08 Wins vs Total Rebounds
2007-08 Wins vs Rebounds Differential
Wins produced are always plotted on the “Y” axis, while (from left to right) Opponent’s FG%, Total Rebounds and Rebound Differential are on the “X” axis. Data for 2008/09 is plotted in the top three graphs, while data for 2007/08 is plotted on the bottom three. Finally, the Raptors’ data point is always highlighted with the letters “TOR”.
What we are looking for is a correlation that is the closest to “1” OR the closest to “-1”. Another way to view the data is to simply look for the line with the most pronounced slope – as well as look for the chart where the “dots” seem to be closer and more consistent along that line.
Clearly, the data points (i.e. “dots”) in the “Wins vs. Opponent’s FG%” form the tightest and most consistent pattern for both years. Certainly there is a reasonable correlation with rebounding and wins as well, but not nearly as strong.
So while an improved effort in blocking out and fighting harder for boards will certainly help the Raptors, I would submit (and no, I have not proven it – I suppose one may be able, but I have purposely tried to suppress everything I learned in Econometrics) that a greater effort on forcing tougher shots by your opponent is more critical:
‘cause if the opponent’s shots are fallin’ there ain’t no boards to be had
So instead of focusing so much on “rebounding”, I believe coaches/fans/players/bloggers/Tweeters should back up one step in the thought process:
Force tough shots >> more defensive rebounds >> more transition baskets >> higher offensive FG% >> more points >> more wins
Therefore, I would encourage more discussion around our defensive abilities (well, lack thereof), what Marc Iavaroni may bring in terms of defensive schemes (he’s advertised as being a specialist, although I am sceptical given the defensive FG% data during his term in Memphis), how our remaining roster spot should be filled (i.e. do we want “good rebounders” or would we rather have good defenders – that “generate” more defensive rebounds?) and other ideas on how we can force our opponents in taking more difficult shots.
I’m looking forward to any thoughts you may have – Raptors Nation has many of the most passionate and informed fans in the NBA.
Oh, and follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Liston
64 Raps
You’re absolutely correct Liston! It all starts at keeping your man in front of you and contesting every shot he takes. It’s also about understanding rotations, assignments, and help D to make the offense work for every bucket.
Last season’s team couldn’t keep any guard away from penetrating and breaking down our D. An injured Jose, Parker, Graham, and the rest of them got consistently broken down. This year’s team with the additions of Jack, DeRozen, and Wright SHOULD help tighten up the perimeter D.
It’s also important to note that it’s not just about making the offense take difficult shots, it’s about making them take DEEP shots. Tightening up the perimeter D and having quick rotations will force a lot of teams settle for the outside shot which is what we need.
Last year it seemed like every PG in the league were licking their chops when facing the Raps because they knew they could easily penetrate for the layup or kick it out for an easy shot.
good to see you posting here tom!
I hate to geek out but what are the R-squared #s and the slopes on those lines? love to see the hard data, even just here in the comments.
oh and I will boo vince even if he is here just as a guest. as one other commenter put it so well, I hate him with the heat of a thousand suns!
Good morning sir – The R-square value for the first graph (opponent FG% vs wins for 2008/09 season) is 0.6702 // P-value is 4.017E-17.
Just tested the rebounding differential (same year) and its R-square value is 0.4778 // P-value is 4.9607E-19
Supports the view that holding your opponent’s to a low FG% is a solid predicator of wins (vs rebounding differential, etc).
Oh – the Vince thing. Trust me – I don’t like him much either (although given the circumstances, I’m not quite as hard on him as others)
Regardless, two things:
1) Most importantly: VC thrives on it. And puts up insane performances in the face of it. His adrenaline kicks up another gear. If we’re quiet (or just chant the standard “D-fence, etc) and ignore him, perhaps he becomes “average Vince”.
2) I want the fans/city to say “we’re over you” / “we don’t care about you anymore” / “we’re so much better now without you – what’s your name again?”
It’s been YEARS. I like our team this year – let’s focus the energy on supporting them rather than booing a player from many moons ago.
fuck vince.
I think i need to expand: vince is a fuck…. he gave away our plays, sulked, his mom bitched and moaned.
Who cares if it seems like he thrives on it!? i think he would put up those performances even if we didn’t boo…Thats what all athletes that return to their former team do.
Hes gunna get booed in toronto as he should, because he deserves nothing more & because thats the way it is in the Tdot.
Great analysis Tom. And I’m totally with you on the Vince thing. Stop booing him! Not because he isn’t a f*ck, because he is! I despise Vince because I have never seen a professional athlete in any sport display less heart than him. He is a terrible team mate, gave up on a team – again I have never seen that happen, had lower pain tolerance than a toddler. But, the only thing that gets him motivated is coming back to Toronto, getting booed so he can put up a great performance.
This is what a lack of character this guy has. He can’t internally motivate himself for the sake of his team, he has to react like a kindergarten kid getting teased – “I’ll show you for booing me and upsetting my Mommy”. Trust me if they had done the extensive psychological testing they do now on potential draft picks, there would have been some major red flags about Vince.
Stop booing him and watch him fade into oblivion. And for all the “experts” thinking he’s such an upgrade over Hedo, I say just wait. Talented? Of course. But shear physical talent alone doesn’t turn you into Kobe or MJ – you have to have the right character. Ask Harold Minor about raw physical talent.
Wait until you’re balls deep in the playoffs, playing ugly “playoff” basketball – let’s see if VC steps up the way Hedo and the rest of the Magic did. KG will make that f*ckin’ pussy cry in the playoffs.
I’ve said it before, and I stick with it – no team with Vince Carter as a starter will win the NBA championship. Kobe would destroy him just through mental strength alone.
what silverback and tom say is true BUT I have grown to LOVE the fact that vince gets motivated by the toronto booing. it further reinforces what a loser he is.
he gets pumped and motivated to beat (in the last two years) a crappy team with sometimes superhuman performances which just goes to show, again, what a loser and waste of potential he is because a winner would do that in big games and much more often.
I also found great, almost shakespearean, irony in the crazy o/t win last year. it showed conclusively that smitch was a horrible in-game coach (although a reasonable leader) and, to me, was the moment that bc flipped the bit on him. so thanks for that vince!
Nope. BOO Wince forever!
The Vince thing is getting old, well pretty old actually, but the big big problem about last year is that our home games (including the one that Vince dunked the game winner) did not give any of our boos any merit due to the fact that our team blew 20 pt leads and just simply lost those both games. I won’t tell Toronto to stop booing Vince, they should still because it is fun, but I just didn’t want to boo along anymore that year when the case-at-hand was that our team just EPIC fails right in-front us. I know we actually might distract our own team and give VC a boost by booing, but our team has to know that they have a job to and they have to win the game no matter what the fans say!
its gonna be different this year cause we’re going to have a good team and hedo when we play wince and the magic. i think our boos will be awesome and effective this year because the games are going to count.
fuckem!!!!!!!! booo him hate him!!!!!!!
Okay, you guys have convinced me. I’ve changed my mind. Boo the f*ck out of him! It’s comical now isn’t it? And it must look hilarious to other team’s fans and journalists. Right after the NJ trade booing VC was justified and expected. Then, by about 2007, Toronto fans started to look a little pathetic. Plus, he was routinely sticking it to Toronto every time we booed.
Now, as we are on the cusp of 2010, VC is with Orlando, I think booing takes on a whole new angle. Sheer comedy! How hilarious will this be to the rest of the league? We’re like an ex girlfriend who just can’t let go. More out of principal now than actual emotion. We shows up drunk at a our ex’s wedding just to call the groom a f*ckin’ a$$hole in front of his new bride and mother.
Let’s watch Dwight and Coach Jeremy respond to deafening boos every time VC touches the ball. Let’s watch VC make one of his pained “jumper’s knee” faces when we cheer loudly as he gets bumped to the floor by Reggie Evans!
Boo louder than you ever have before fans!
Tom, you’re absolutely right about this VC hateathon. Why is it that Toronto fans (not just raptor fans) invest more energy in hating players that leave than in supporting our team? This kind of behaviour seems really juvenile to me. Let’s get over it, we’re better than this.
Anyone else find it curious that Vince has been the main piece in two of the most lopsided trades in the last decade?
I think that, more than anything else, is a great indicator of what he is worth.
Orlando will rue the day…
well the first trade was so lopsided that it could make up for about 5 trades but this last one wasnt that lopsisded at all. courtney lee is going to be great plus hes super young. rafers a starter and batie is good.
Yeah… I must’ve been thinking of the Richard Jefferson trade. THAT was one-sided.
I still stand by my rue the day comment tho.
nah i like booing vince just cuz its fun and its really the only rivalry we have in our young franchise. Theres Lakers vs. Celtics, Lebron vs. Kobe, and Raptors Fan vs. Vince Carter, u gotta love it lol
Well done Tom. Quality read to start the day.
For those of you scratching your head: the x-axis is the bottom/horizontal line of the graph ;
Excellent anaylsis, kudos from a fellow NBer :)
Defensive schemes are not based around rebounding! I don’t understand when fans call for “rebounding skills” to be developed in practice/training camp. It simply can’t be done, its why coaches stare at media types that ask them how they are going to fix rebounding woes. Its a product of tough shots and effort. The key to solid rebpunding is perimeter defense. Force tough shots and keep your man in front of you so your bigs don’t have to rotate out of have position. Bosh and Bargs are not all nba defenders, but they looked worse than they are, especially giving up offensive boards, when they had to rotate every bloody play to try and cut off an opposing guard that had left Jose or AP stumbling over their own feet.
The regression analysis was brilliant. Thank you for that.
However, anyone who’s played the game will tell that the tough defense and the hard nosed rebounding are one in the same. Statistically you can seperate them and make a plausible argument that the success of one is largely predicated on the other. The absolute truth is, one is the other, they are the same. The same fire that drive’s you to play hard nose defence is the same fire that drive’s you to go after the ball. That correlation is virtually impossible to statistically replicate. They’re inability to rebound was not so much a result of the defensive failings but rather further evidence of the weakened mindset that allowed them to get schooled in the first place.
Thanks Tom,having said all that ,keeping in mind that we are the only team that can offer Carlos the kind of money he is looking for,who in your mind should we be looking at,and what can we offer,obviously shipping out Banks’ contract would be nice,but realistically who is out there within our price range? …to play defence and go after rebounds.
Tks
That’s cool Tom and also a great way to start the morning. Hottieboy can’t call you a hater with graphs that support your thoughts.
Great article Tom — I’m pessimistic about the Raptors defense next season … and expect the Raptors to be in the bottom third of the league defensively.
I’m doubtful of Iavaroni having much of an impact, because he did a terrible job defensively with the Grizzlies which forced management to go out and hire Kevin O’Neill to take over on the defensive end much to the delight of the players who now felt they had good defensive principles to play on. I also think Iavaroni’s role defensively was overblown in Phoenix. I regard Iavaroni as more of a big man coach + player development coach rather than a defensive specialist.
I also thought Triano did a terrible job defensively last season. I thought the Raptors underperformed all season long defensively, and I blame him for a good chunk of that.
I don’t see the roster changes making much of a difference either.
He should get blamed for more then a chunk of that. He has been an assistant coach for years now. if he was a defensive guy, we would have seen more out of the players during that time. Just a thought.
I agree, but the reason he is hired now is probably due to financial reasons and the fact that BC has someone/some-people that can “obey” his “orders”. A team might change itself positively if a different guy calls out the same plays for offense and defense.
Great first post. Read it first thing in the morning on my iPhone. Makes so much more sense now that I’m actually at my computer and can see the graphs.
Liked the research and the analysis. The Raps’ defense definitely needs to improve. I’d think a full training camp with Triano and Iavoroni would help…
Also, it’s nice to see someone shares my views on Vince! I’ve written about this before, we’ve gotta MOVE ON.
I think the effect that a coach has on the defensive end is overblown. If all of our players are quick, long and athletic then we will be a good defensive team. Its personel that dictates how good a defense can be. If you dont have the soldiers for the job then its impossible to ask them to do things they just cant do (i.e. Ford guarding anyone in the post). The offense will see any physical mismatches and go after them, any defense breaks down when when this occurs. I understand that there are rotations etc to try to compensate for this, but again… an unathletic short player won’t have the quicks or length to close out and bother shooters.
I’m with Dave on this one, we really just dont the personel to be an effective defensive team. Relying on a rookie to stop some of the star players in this league or asking Hedo to do this consistently concerns me. We need Chris Bosh to be a more physical presence around the rim, and im not sure whether thats fair to ask. I havn’t even seen glimpses of potential from Bargs that leads me to believe thathe can be a solid weakside defender. I love bargs, but thats just not his thing.
Just one more comment, you arent automatically a good defensive team if you are long and athletic, but I think that is the scenario where you can blame the coach if they arent, the raptors do not fall under this category.
if this were true pete carril would not be a legend. he certainly didn’t have the athletes! even better, read this GREAT story and you will NEVER question whether coaching impacts defense again http://bit.ly/t9QrB
I understand the point that he is trying to make, but I would be interested to see how this applies to the NBA game where the players make multiples of what the coach makes.
I’d agree that better perimeter defense will improve barg’s defensive rebounding (and therefore his total) but I’d like to see more heart on the offensive glass. I bet there’s a big correlation between teams with high OR numbers and teams that penetrate/dish, but that’s only a guess.
“I’d like to see more heart on the offensive glass.” >> 100% agree. If he could be 1/2 the offensive rebounder as Kevin Love (little shorter / slightly heavier) it would go a long way.
Its difficult to crash the glass when you are behind the three point line.
Asking Bosh to crash the glass is far more reasonable, as he is often in the lane.
Great stuff! You are absolutely spot on about the importance of solid D to solid R.
I for one am optimistic about the Raptors chances to be a decent defensive team next year. Not great, mind you, just decent. The saving grace is that with the offensive firepower we have at our disposal just being a decent defensive team will be enough to make a splash in the Eastern Conference.
I wouldn’t sell Iavaroni out quite yet. He was never working with much in Memphis, and as head coach he had to try to focus on every single aspect of the game. Here in Toronto he has a greater opportunity to put all of his energies into a sound defensive scheme.
I would like to see the Raps play a lot of zone D this year. We’ve got the length to contest shots, we want to keep teams on the perimeter, and we need to hide the lack of East/West foot speed in Calderon, Turkey, and Bargnani.
Also, one important thing that is often overlooked is that our bench players are all known for solid fundamental defense and rebounding. The starters will struggle on D, sure, but the bench has a good chance to lock people down, especially team’s second units. Jack/Wright/Delfino/Evans/Nesterovic is a fantastic defensive line up.
BC deserves some props for going way out of his way to address the weaknesses in our starting line up.
I disagree about the zone. In order to play a proper zone, you NEED to be very quick because you have to get to spots, rather than stick to a man. We all know how horrible the Raps were last year rotating on the swing passes, leaving the opponent with the inevitable wide open jumper on the wing while AP waved his arms or Jose clapped his hands in desperation. Also, the Raps are bad enough at rebounding fundamentals which become more evident when playing a zone.
It’s easier to play man well with effort and learning from experience. Which I think this Raps team can do. I don’t see them being a good zone team.
I always thought that zone D was activated in order to hide defensive deficencies. But maybe that is more the case with individual weaknesses as opposed to team-wide weaknesses. I’d still like to see them try the zone more often, but you might be right. I’m certainly no expert.
Also, I expect quicker rotations this year with AP gone and Calderon finally healthy. You know Jack will get to his man and Wright/DeRozen can probably handle it just fine. Of course, there is still Turkey and Bargs who couldn’t close out aggressively if their lives depended on it.
Conclusion: Who the F knows…
I’d say yes you are right in that zone is employed to hide deficiencies, but only in rec men’s league….where people are just too lazy and play stand around zone….haha. But in a good zone you have to be quick to react and be constantly moving. You’re right though…who knows what this new version of the raps will be capable of. With certain line-ups different D’s will be better.
Tom
Next step is to determine using regression analysis ways to improve defensive efficiency. (a la the Michael Lewis article about Battier).
Hadn’t come across it – but just found it (http://bit.ly/QvQyU) – will give it a read. Thank you for the heads up!
Can you also add Perimeter Player (PG, SG, and SF) REBOUNDING please? That would be another statement to say for our team and the way the league is running now….
RBB,
Just read the article on Battier. Great stuff, thanks!
aside from Shane being a great defender and his absolute impact on a game… Lewis makes a valid point – how many stat’ categories do not reflect the true measure of a player’s contribution. I’m sure scouts look at many aspects not mentioned in statistical columns, but not the greater audience.
p.s.
Tom, great work there!
Wow, I never thought that BORING Stats class with that MonoTone teacher wearing that same Blue Sweater would ever come in handy. I guess you just have to apply it to something your interest in.
The SUM is greater then the INDIVIDUAL parts!
In Basketball this Quote is SO true. If EACH individual does NOT except the OverAll game plan and become an individual player the sum of the team breaks down & the game is usually lost.
In hockey this is NOT so true. In hockey you can just sit back and ride the goalies’ determination to win OR the individual Forward Player to just keep poppin’ pucks into the back of the net until they have one more goal then the other team.
In BasketBall you’ve got NOTHING if one guy on the floor play’s outside the team Philosophy. Kobe learned this in 07-08 Season, when he tried to carry the team through the season & playoffs. Never fully trusting his teammates. He ALMOST did it & die from exhaustion trying (LeBron Too in 2009). Then decided in 2009 that playing as a Teammate was important. Sadly ‘Wince’ still has NOT figured that out yet.
Still the main ingredient for the Raptors to WIN is obvious… read RaptorsRepublic daily.
(Please don’t mention Kobe’s 81pts. You can ALWAYS find an exception.)
It is a great break-down Tom.
When you plot the numbers they do REVEAL hidden reasons about Rebounding Problems & give you something CONRETE to argue with.
I didn’t want to sound like I’m slamming STATS in my last post. I’m a accountant. I stare at numbers all day and know the importance. I’ve TRIED a number of times to put finincial DATA in a graphs with Excel. But Excel always LAUGHS at me & gives me a diarrhea graph. Nothing like yours. Nice work! (is my nose brown yet?) Stats are boring though…..yet useful!
Hey that’s pretty good. I never thought of using regression analysis to show a correlation between rebounds and wins, Kudos! But just one thing how correlated were total rebounds and wins? I know you mentioned that it “isn’t strong” but by observing the amount of outliers I would venture that rebounding is actually not very correlated to wins if at all.
Opponent’s FG% (over two years) is -82% correlated [i.e. lower the FG% you hold your opponent to, the more wins - makes sense]
Total rebounds is 38% correlated with wins (over the 2 yrs)
Rebound differential is 61% correlated (good, just not as strong and consistent as Opp FG%)
How can Iavaroni be a specialist in defense ? Before Memphis , he came from the Pheonix organization.
I’m puzzled as well – it’s just what some “experts” are billing him as: “defensive specialist”. I see the same data you do – PHX and MEM were not defensive juggernauts.
This was discussed a while back too. He is supposed to be a defensive specialist, it’s just that the head coach in Phoenix was more focused on offense than worry about what Iavaroni had to say. In Memphis the head coaching job went over his head and he couldn’t cope, an article at the time said he never got a chance to implement what he preached because of dual responsibilities.
It might be all bullshit and he just happens to suck but I say we give him an ear and a chance.
Iavaroni’s claim to fame was preparing players for the games. He provided alot of the scouting reports to the players for the guys they would be gaurding and broke down their weaknesses and strengths etc. SOMEHOW that translated into defensive specialist on his resume when applying for the Memphis post. Well, everyone here knows that pointing out someone’s weaknesses is something altogether different from stopping that person. He does his homework, yes – but I’m not so sure “defensive specialist” is a title that should be attached to his name.
I don’t know much about Iavroni, but I was watching a classic NBA game on RaptorsTV a couple of weeks ago (Charles Barkley’s NBA debut on the 76ers, with Dr. J and Moses Malone) which featured a much younger, Iavroni, with a full head of hair, coming off the bench.
For a 6 minute stretch in the 2nd quarter this guy was all over the floor. Grabbing offensive rebounds, taking charges, a steal, and received quite the ovation from the Philly crowd when he left the game. I came away really impressed with his game and tenacity.
It was only 6 minutes during one game over 25 years ago, but if that is the mindset he had as a player, I can only see him trying to instill that sort of work ethic in his players. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. But, defense usually comes down to which teams work the hardest on ‘D’, hopefully ‘Boogie’ and Iavaroni can get through to our perimeter defenders.
Really interesting analysis and the results seem to support what many people have been complaining about. That is, why don’t the Raptors put more emphasis on defense? I also have to echo the comment about Iavaroni. I keep hearing that this guy is a defensive guru but his recent resume doesn’t support it. The writer mentioned the woeful Memphis experience but before that he was with Phoenix for quite a while, one of the absolute worst defensive teams in the league. Here’s hoping he has a lot more success in Toronto.
I think there is one huge external variable and that is “Talking on Defence”. At times Raps didn’t even talk on the floor and we all saw Bosh trying to encourage guys to talk more.
Jay Triano mentioned on the Fan590 that it was one of Jarrett Jack’s best qualities (communicating on D). He also said that Jack, more than any other player in the league, actively looked to steal his signals.
Its tough when half of them don’t speak English….
You think that’s bad when I played school ball the 2 was deaf.
Was a great post…. I always can appreciate when people put in the work… and can appreciate it even more when they dedicate teh time to put it into graph form.
Philson – I disagree that you can’t teach rebounding. I remember watching an interview with Rodman where he explained how he would watch players shot selection and arc (on video and during game etc) to get an idea of where his positioning should be after a shot. For example if a player had higher arc he would want to be closer to the net, less arc further away. You can also teach players the one simple skill that creates good rebounders…. boxing out. I think its a lost art for most players, they grow up so much taller, athletic etc than their oposition they don’t need to when they are young. If they could get ‘find a man and box out’ ingraved in their heads… you would find a much better rebounding team.
Agree!
In Europe where there are less athletically gifted young players, coaches install these fundamental at a very young age. Kids all same height (aged 10-12) box out in all five positions…
I had the same thought, but why is it that our three Euros are all terrible rebounders then?
Ya, you can teach the technique of boxing-out, but getting Bargs ferocious about it would be step 1b.
I’ve kicked to death at least 6 facsimiles of the Bosh/Bargs/Turk toughness issue to death, and I think I hear #7 galloping closer.
If Bosh looks like he is going to protect his body for the 2010 max money madness, don’t expect him to risk tearing up a knee by driving to the basket. As for rebounds, he gonna continue snagging the uncontested defensive rebounds and not waste his effort on the offensive board. Expect a lot of vince-style jump shooting and occasionally driving to the basket .. but nothing more than racking up his 20+/10 and playing it safe this season.
Bosh has already proven himself and he doesn’t need to bust himself for the Ratpors … in preparation for going back to the States … Dallas maybe??!!!
In order to rack up that 20+ points, he is going to need to get to the line, which will require a lot of driving to the basket.
Bosh will bust his ass this year. Kinda like he’s done every year except for a few isolated instances last year.
Get over it.
Tom;
Like a true analyst! Beautiful. There is probably a good “Allen Iverson” inverse correlation to wins/championships. Big egos who take a lot of shots with shooting percentages below 45%.
Stats shmats. You don’t need graphs to figure out the jist of what you were saying, it just made the read boring.